The increase in bond yields increases government debt and my guess is the BoE will not reduce interest rates so house buying will slow down once the stanp duty deadline passes. House builders will be forced to reduce prices to balance their books so Vistry will struggle for longer and the consquence will be lower share price. I'm tempted to buy bt will wait until its well into the 400s |
The share chart is dire. It may break the support level at 500 p. Looking at the 5 year long term chart, there was support at 500 p in 2021 and 2022. I am afraid that third time is UNLUCKY in 2025. The share price will fall below 500 p. This is karma at its best cynically, as the company buys back its own shares daily at higher prices. The directors have lost at the roulette table. They are meant to be in the building business. Where is the CFO providing wise counsel to the board to take prudent action?
Those were the days when some large companies with mountains of cash, did not know what to do with it so they were buying back shares. A few years later when times were hard they had to raise money in the stock market at very low share price. Have they not learned that "Cash is king"? Just ask Rachel Reeves about higher borrowing cost! |
Joined you @512s for the recovery here, with buybacks, looking oversold imo, GLA |
This is just too low now - taken an initial 5000 at 512 |
We would be crazy to be tempted in today.
Momentum too strong.
Just topped up at 5.129.
Hoping share buybacks are a clue and that £250m profit will hold.
Interest rate problems in the gilt market does not help.
Here and America, house builders being crushed.
A perfect storm.
I think the CEO should stay because he knows this complicated business more than anyone else. He has skin in the game and will be motivated after this humiliation
No time to change to an ignorant newcomer.
As Blair said, you lose the job of Prime Minister just when you are beginning to know how things work.
They love at the start when you are clueless. |
When we read statements like these from Greggs (today) what someone wanting to buy a house would think ?
Labour has killed any hope for anything, even for buying a pie or a sandwich, let alone a house.
Increasing abuptly taxes everywhere is equivalent to the FED or the BoE increasing interest rates not, in increaments of 0.25/0.5% but in 5 - 10%'s.
We see the results of Labour all over the spectrum of businesses.
The "friend of the working people" will definitely trigger a recession very soon.
"Despite growth in disposable incomes, consumer confidence was subdued in the second half of 2024 and this weighed on industry-wide customer visits and expenditure. With good cost management in the final quarter the Board anticipates reporting a full year outcome for FY24 in line with its previous expectations.
Looking into 2025, employment costs will result in further overall cost inflation, although wage increases should provide support to consumers. |
BB,In a closed period til accounts but yes, they need to step up but obviously it's a mess, well know soon enough as to the magnitude. Absence of large insider buying in Q4 apart from initial dip has obviously strengthened the Bear position but as far as I'm aware none of the big boys are dumping. Loads of Paid would've been slaughtered by the 60% crash from £12 when first bombshell hit. Decimation of m/cap by 3bn from £14 high, that's incredible but we'l know more soon. |
Ten year low, Fitzgerald needs to either depart or put his money where his mouth is, he has been on the gravy train too long, thoroughly unscrupulous individual, and not to be trusted. This US fund that is in here heavy needs to step up to the plate also, initiate a buyout. |
To add. Buying its own shares and decreasing cash reserves is not logical so why are they continuing to do it ? They obviously believe that they're going to generate cash going forward. Last feed for me this morning :) |
I like this correct and blunt logic (kingston 78):
"Instead of building houses the company is buying its own shares at prices that are now falling. It is depleting its cash reserves." |
Just in case anyone interested and hadnt seen this henry boot rns this morning.Henry Boot announces that its land promotion and planning business, Hallam Land (Hallam), has completed the sale of 632 residential plots at Pickford Gate, Coventry to national housebuilder Vistry Group PLC ('Vistry'). The sale resulted in an ungeared internal rate of return for Henry Boot of 28% p.a. |
That is normal procedure with many buybacks...art of buybacks..buy highs... |
Instead of building houses the company is buying its own shares at prices that are now falling. It is depleting its cash reserves. |
Catching that falling knife is always a difficult one. All HBs are being battered, most at 3 year lows but they will bottom out. This is a great stock for all traders as volatility reigns. |
Absolute shtshow but when to av down is the ?? |
ST,Everyone has an agenda, especially the IBs who will be knocking whilst buying the stock ! No getting away from the shoite news BUT memories are short when it comes to trading. If there's positive news on 15/1, this will bounce as shorts will close regardless of management failures. If there's more bad news, there has to be management changes and they will be on the predator hit list, they'll be on it now. I'll continue to buy down here and reappraise next week :) |
So 500p getting closer...with building companies over run on costs is normal... |
 UBS has lowered its price target for Vistry Group PLC (LSE:VTY) to 495p from 605p, maintaining a sell rating after the company issued its third profit warning in as many months.
The cut reflects concerns about Vistry’s financial outlook and its ability to recover amid rapidly falling profits and rising debt levels.
The December profit warning revealed that 2024 pre-tax profits are now expected to be £250m, down from £300m.
Vistry attributed the decline to weaker market conditions, delays in transactions, and a decision to avoid offering steep discounts to secure bulk sales.
UBS sees these issues as troubling signs of deteriorating trading conditions and reduced customer demand, particularly as they surfaced with little time left in the financial year.
The state of Vistry’s balance sheet has also raised some alarm with the Swiss bank.
Net debt at year-end is now expected to reach £200m, significantly higher than the previous forecast of £50-60m.
UBS estimates average monthly net debt for 2024 could climb to £550m, with total adjusted debt, including provisions and joint venture obligations, reaching £1.8bn.
This would represent leverage of 5.3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation—a level UBS believes could force Vistry to prioritise debt reduction at the expense of profitability.
UBS highlights several key risks, including whether the balance sheet is adequately funded given the steep profit decline, what a realistic profit trajectory for 2025 might look like, and how quickly the company can recover.
While the upcoming trading update on January 15 may offer some clarity, the outlook remains uncertain.
The new price target reflects UBS’s lowered expectations for earnings per share, with the valuation based on discounted cash flow analysis.
The bank has revised its assumptions, reducing the expected long-term return on capital employed from 17% to 15.5%, reflecting diminished confidence in Vistry’s ability to rebound. |
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It's entirely possible the 24/12 is the end of it. I wouldn't believe it until I see several updates. Whether these are worth a punt at current levels is another matter.
"If the balance sheet was going to be weakened by further income erosion in 25, the buy back scheme would’ve been pulled"
Not necessarily. They announced the black hole 8th Oct, suggesting it's only a tiny part of their entire business, BBs weren't pulled.
From 8th Oct rns:
"The Group has recently become aware that within one of its six divisions, the South Division, the total full-life cost projections to complete 9 out of its 46 developments, including some large-scale schemes, have been understated by c. 10% of the total build costs. To add further context to the 9 developments in question, it is important to note that the Group as a whole has around 300 developments.
The estimated one-off impact of adjusting for the revised development cost assumptions reduces the Board's expectations for adjusted profit before tax for FY24 by c. £80m, for FY25 by c. £30m, and FY26 by c. £5m. The reduction in expectations in these three years relates to overall cost estimates across the full life of the developments. As a result, the Board now expects Group adjusted profit before tax in FY24 to be c. £350m.
We believe the issues are confined to the South Division and changes to the management team in the division are underway. We are commencing an independent review to fully ascertain the causes." |
ST, I have a different opinion as I believe that rhe kitchen sink has been thrown in. As posted, I believe if the 24/12 update was the end of it so that they can spin out as many positives come update next week. If the balance sheet was going to be weakened by further income erosion in 25, the buy back scheme would've been pulled, it hasn't so I see that as a positive sign. 5 more months at £9m a month when debt forecast is £200m, to continue would be reckless imo. I'm fortunate that I've not suffered the losses that some have had the misfortune experience and I'm happy to kiss up in volume down here. They're an acquisition target too but I believe the Vistry update will be better than expected. If it isn't, I will reappraise following TU and analyst call . |
prob with partnership contracts is that while they are nice big chunky fees and you can plan against them (buybacks), the issue is that you are selling to professionals that understand the mkt and how to operate in it (any issues with the properties will not be swept under the carpet). its easier to push singles onto john smith and in a rising mkt you get that benefit too. both have their advantages and disadvantages but with partnerships while in theory you escape the boom bust, you have to be on the ball otherwise your partners will eat your wafer thin margins. |
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"Yet they continue to hold in buy backs. Net debt forecast at 200m for FY24 so why continue ? "
sikhthetech - 08 Nov 2024 - 12:13:34 - 1739 of 2055 Vistry Group
I've seen this kind of reaction many times...
As per my assertions...Buy backs, NAV, Broker notes, TA, dividends etc wouldn't stop a share from crashing.
What matters is company/sector, economic/political newsflow and the direction they are heading.
Didn't Greg sell all his holdings held via Baker Estates? That was your red flag.
I wouldn't touch this atm. I'm still negative on HBs. |
Bigjock36: "Call transcript confirmed no further issues were highlighted"
A few were saying and thinking the same before the 3rd Profit Warning.
Then the Christmas present knocked on the door.
The only final positive outcome is the resignation of both CEO and CFO and the LAST skeleton taken out of the cupboard once for all - if any -.
This is when the market and investors would feel confident and comfortable. |
Yet they continue to hold in buy backs. Net debt forecast at 200m for FY24 so why continue ? Not long to find out. |
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