fuji99, thanks for your reply. Again, I agree that Vistry management appears to have lapsed on Due diligence on the takeover of their counterparts, especially with regard to countrywide, as this is where the trouble started in their south division. The question now is, have they cleaned out, or are there more skeletons to be revealed in the closets? |
I, for one, invest in different asset classes, including property.
I've also been investing in shares/trading etc for 40years.
That's why I went short on HBs.
sikhthetech - 08 Nov 2024 - 12:13:34 - 1739 of 2055 Vistry Group
I've seen this kind of reaction many times...
As per my assertions...Buy backs, NAV, Broker notes, TA, dividends etc wouldn't stop a share from crashing.
What matters is company/sector, economic/political newsflow and the direction they are heading.
Didn't Greg sell all his holdings held via Baker Estates? That was your red flag.
I wouldn't touch this atm. I'm still negative on HBs. |
 Ugly, turning away business, because uneconomic, and assuming no more surprises, what's now the new operating margin, say 6% less ?, on say 3bn of sales, before tax 180m so ongoing likely another 25% below what they have put out, before tax, take tax off, with a peer multiple of 9, would leave the market cap just above 1bn, very easy to see that, house builders have traded even lower in past, so that is not a bottom.
The price is still over £5 a share, so 1.8bn, can see why the shorter's are flocking around this raising their stakes substantially over the Christmas, will be ugly next week or so when the big players return, would rather watch, as don't see the return on investment at these levels. Best justify where it is in next couple of years assuming no more surprises, so you have just risk to hold it. Bit reckless using borrowed funds to try to go against the hedge funds, good luck with that one, better off use money to fix business.
Bit of a perfect storm, rising costs, falling demand, because not affordable, and unviable projects, the answer compromise on margin and volume, or it's worse until we see meaningful improvement in material labour cost inflation, lower interest rates, and especially some stability in how the ship is being run.
One to watch down to 1bn market cap, so sub £3 in my view, it's not going to be a good year for house builders IMO, and some are more exposed than others, as appears the case here, if I'm wrong I doubt come Dec-25, we see much change in price (unless cheaper), so what's the point, this is not a cheap stock, and certainly very high risk until they update with more info, better to invest with that to hand, if at that time it makes sense, okay, but very doubtful it will, more chance a big drop in price. |
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