Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[hiijinx] 07/9/2009 18:10

eyerishmann, maybe the problem is its quoted in dollars not pounds even though its listed on the londion exchange

[dickbush] 07/9/2009 10:34

I don't believe so. My broker turned me down and I had to put into a taxable account.

[eyerishmann] 04/9/2009 09:31

Can I put this fund in my ISA?

[dickbush] 04/9/2009 09:16

Vietnam Stocks May Advance on Economic Data, Vincom's Tuan Says

By Nguyen Kieu Giang

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam's benchmark stock index, the world's fourth-best performer this year, may rise as much as 29 percent in 2009, bolstered by positive economic data, according to Vincom Securities Joint-Stock Co.

The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange's VN Index may "touch 700 at some point" by the end of December "if exports recover well," Phan Anh Tuan, vice general director at Hanoi-based Vincom Securities, said in a telephone interview today. The gauge has rallied 71 percent this year to 540.81 at yesterday's close, after dropping 66 percent in 2008.

"The prospects for the local market are very optimistic from now to the end of the year," Tuan said. "By the end of October, all economic information will be revealed more clearly and no shock is expected on the policy front that will significantly affect the market."

Growth has become more visible through expanding industrial and agricultural output after the first eight months, creating strong momentum for the remainder of the year, Government Office Chief Nguyen Xuan Phuc said Sept. 1. Tuan's prediction contrasts with Credit Suisse Group AG's advice on Sept. 2 for investors to sell Vietnam's equities amid "excessive" valuations and as lending slows.

The VN Index, which advanced for a sixth straight month in August, surging 17 percent, has been beaten this year by only benchmark gauges in Peru, Sri Lanka and Istanbul.

'Some Corrections'

The price-to-book ratios for the largest Vietnamese companies are the second-highest in Asia, excluding Japan, while price-to-earnings valuations are the highest when non-operating income is excluded, Credit Suisse analysts Joseph Lau and Dan Fineman wrote in a report Sept. 2.

"The market's recent run provides a good opportunity to take money out," the report said. "Surging bank credit has fuelled Vietnam's rally since April, and we expect slowing bank credit to end the market's outperformance."

The central bank aims to cap expansion in lending at 30 percent and will try to slow loan growth in the coming years after credit grew 25 percent in the eight months through August, State Bank of Vietnam Governor Nguyen Van Giau said on Aug. 28.

The nation's economy may grow 5.5 percent this year, while inflation has slowed to the lowest level in more than seven years, Government Office Chief Phuc said in a statement on the government's Web site, citing a Ministry of Planning and Investment's forecast.

The stock market's "uptrend will continue although there will be some corrections along the way, and the index may go down to about 500 before jumping to 700," Tuan said. "In the third quarter, earnings of companies in some sectors like commodities, real estate or confectionery are expected to outperform."

[dickbush] 02/9/2009 09:02

Market rose a little, as it did yesterday, to a new rally high. VOF must be standing at a 30% discount to published NAV.

[dickbush] 01/9/2009 21:21

Bull market starting to find its feet?
Vietnam's main stock market is rallying fast among the globe's best performing indexes, but some analysts strongly believe it could go higher by the year's end.


Growing numbers of investors are willing to have a crack
Vietnam's main bourse, the VN Index, last week closed August 28 at 536.53 points, up 17 per cent from 458.04 points ending July and 19.6 per cent from 448.29 points in June. So far, the index has rallied 127 per cent from its lowest level of 235.5 points on February 24.

Numerous market analysts said the domestic market was now among the world's best rallying indexes in terms of recovery and might pullback. However, Tri Viet Investments Company director Pham Thanh Tung said: "The Vietnamese market recovery story has not ended. We expect the VN Index to rally an additional 20-30 per cent from here by the year's end," Tung told his company's clients in mid August when the VN Index was at 510 points.

Tung said his company's "Crisis: When to Buy" research report from January, 2009 correctly predicted the domestic market would bottom out at around the 235-269 point range in February, 2009. The research studied the connection between stock markets and economies during crisis periods to decide market peaks and bottoms.

"Our research found that the VN Index would begin to recover in March and last 9-11 months. If our model comes true, the VN Index will rally by [a maximum] 196-231 per cent from its lowest to peak in the 695-890 point range," Tung said.

Tong Minh Tuan, deputy head of BIDV Securities Company (BSC), said when investors strongly expected an economy and stock market recovery, they would heavily buy in and that could make the market go higher.
"When the money flows in, we cannot imagine how the market can go [up]," he said.

Tuan, however, noted short-term investors faced more risks than rewards as the supply side was on the rise. Duong Hong Ha, Tri Viet Investments' senior technical analyst, said the market was now forming a "cup and handle" model with strong trading volumes, which signalled a long-term bull market ahead.

"The next target for the VN Index will be the 630-650 point range," Ha said, adding that the time for the market to reach that level might be long or short, but the overall long-term bull market trend had not changed. "Investors should cash in during market weaknesses," he said.

Investors have been concerned about commercial banks' liquidity after numerous banks rushed to raise short to long-term deposit rates that could affect money inflows into equities. "The recent market rally is thanks to retail and institutional investors, foreign investors' money, not from banks or borrowed money. Therefore, the rally is sustainable," said Tung.

"More money has shifted from less profitable bank savings to higher reward equities investment." Foreign investors were holding around $500 million on the market sidelines waiting for market opportunities, Ha said.

[dickbush] 31/8/2009 10:52

U.S., Vietnam Seek to Limit China, Keep Power Balance (Update1)

By Jason Folkmanis

Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. and Vietnam want to limit Chinese influence in Southeast Asia by maintaining a balance of power with other countries in the region, a former American ambassador in Hanoi said.

"The U.S. and Vietnam have a convergence of strategic interests, among which is to maintain a balance in Southeast Asia," Raymond Burghardt, the U.S. ambassador to Vietnam from 2001 to 2004, and now director of East-West seminars at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said in a telephone interview.

U.S. interests in its relationship with Vietnam include "shared concern over the rising strength of China," the Congressional Research Service said, in a report dated July 29. Deputy U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marcieltold Congress on July 15 that China warned oil companies not to explore in offshore areas that Vietnam considers its territory.

China and Vietnam have a history of conflict dating back thousands of years, with the latest war taking place in 1979. The two countries have jousted recently over Chinese warnings on oil companies drilling in areas that Vietnam claims.

The U.S. last month joined a friendship pact with Southeast Asia and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told journalists in Thailand that the U.S. "is back" in the region. China acceded to the accord six years earlier.

Seeking Cooperation

"The Vietnamese are never going to want to be in-your-face to the Chinese about it, but in reality they do seek the cooperation of other countries, both their Southeast Asian neighbors as well as big countries like the U.S. and to some extent Japan and India as well, to make sure there's a sufficient balance of power that ensures that the Chinese can't do whatever they want," Burghardt said.

The U.S. and Vietnam have overlapping strategic interests, Mark Manyin, a Washington-based specialist in Asian affairs at the Congressional Research Service, write in the report, entitled "U.S.-Vietnam Relations in 2009: Current Issues and Implications for U.S. Policy."

Vietnam wants to "repair and deepen its relationship with China, while simultaneously buttressing this by improving relations with the U.S. as a counterweight to Chinese ambition," he wrote. American interests include "countering China's increasing regional influence," Manyin said.

"On the one hand, maintaining stable, friendly relations with its northern neighbor is critical for Vietnam's economic development," Manyin wrote. "On the other hand, many Vietnamese are wary of China's increased influence in Southeast Asia," he said.

Exxon Mobil

China has also told international oil companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. that they will be excluded from the Chinese market should they fulfill contracts to participate in Vietnamese exploration projects in or near disputed waters in the South China Sea, Manyin wrote.

"Starting in the summer of 2007, China told a number of U.S. and foreign oil and gas firms to stop exploration work with Vietnamese partners in the South China Sea or face unspecified consequences in their business dealings with China," Marciel told the U.S. Congress.

In 2007, BP Plc abandoned planned exploration in an area known as Block 5-2 between the Spratlys and an existing BP- operated gas project in Vietnamese waters, because of competing ownership claims between China and Vietnam, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

"Disagreements over the Spratlys and nearby areas had seemed to calm down and now they've heated up again," said Burghardt. "Part of the reason is that China is trying to expand its influence."

The Spratly Islands are claimed in whole or part by Vietnam, China, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

[dickbush] 31/8/2009 09:34

Vietnam market up 2% despite a 7% decline in China. Now within 3% of the peak a year ago, after which it looks like clear blue sky. It rose 17% in August and is now up 30% since the end of May when VOF were $1.56.

[dickbush] 24/8/2009 09:11

Another new rally high by the Vietnamese Index. Now within 6% of the highest level over the past 12 months. Once past that its clear blue sky.

[davebowler] 20/8/2009 16:48

Good volume today.
Any of you looked at ASPL?

[dickbush] 20/8/2009 09:16

Vietnam market hit a new high for the current bull market. Now up 25% from the end of May, while VOF share price is unchanged. Weird.

[dickbush] 11/8/2009 12:14

The quote is in US Dollars but, obviously, any weakness in the Vietnamese Dong would weigh on the translation of the Vietnamese market's appreciation into Dollars. NAV end-July $2.18.

No one has a good word to say for the US Dollar currently but IMO our economic mess is even bigger than that of the US. IF I'm right, long term UK holders should get an extra benefit.

[bandit99] 10/8/2009 10:25

£/$ exchange rate a factor?

[dickbush] 10/8/2009 10:22

Share price back to end-May level while the Vietnam stockmarket is now up almost 20% since then, and only 4% from its 2009 high.

[dickbush] 10/8/2009 09:28

Market Update - This month the Prime Minister announced a downward revision in the full year credit growth target from 30% to 25%, which would infer a significant contraction from 1H09 when credit growth surpassed 17%, in a strong sign that the Government will be proactive in combating inflationary pressures.

A 4th straight month of monthly price increases combined with rising commodity prices and strong 1H credit growth brings the spectre of inflation back to Vietnam, however, on an average basis it is still improving down to 3.31% YoY. The trade deficit through the first 7 months is estimated at $3.38bn, much lower than 2008 levels but picking up especially when considering that through 1Q09 Vietnam was in surplus.
Combining the above mentioned potential early warning signs with a Fitch Ratings Dong downgrade from BB to BB- at the beginning of July has led to some renewed USD hoarding behaviour putting some mild pressure on the Dong this month. The black market rate is VND18,530/$1, a record high since March 28, 2009, while in the official market rates are largely unchanged at VND17,810/$1. However, the State Bank of Vietnam assured (while not giving a specific number) that in the final week of July they released a flood of US dollar liquidity to banks with shortages in an effort to assuage concerns.

The VN-Index had a largely down and up month in July, finishing at 466.76 or up 4.1%. Some of the above mentioned macro indicators combined with a Government crackdown of improper use of subsidized loans entering into equities were likely responsible for the market bottoming out the month at 412.88 on 20th July, but continued strong performance in global markets combined with ongoing strong earnings reports led to a strong rally in the last week and half of the month.

By end July, first half 2009 results had come out for most listed and large OTC companies. Overall, it is a good earnings season with most companies reporting very encouraging numbers, many even beat investors expectations by a long mile. Sectors which have done particularly well are those that serve the domestic market and therefore benefited from Vietnams improving economic environment in 1H09. These include Staples Consumers, Utilities, Property, Construction Materials and Auto Components. Companies in these sectors have generally achieved 60% or more of their FY09 profit target in just the first 6 months, with some even fulfilling more than 100%.

Banks have also done very well, with average year-on-year income growth of about 10% despite a narrower interest spread compared to last year. Both deposit growth and credit growth are now at 20-30% year-to-date. Pharmaceuticals companies having benefited from lower material costs finally managed to expand their margin and achieving full year profit target appears very likely. Companies in Energy sector performed in line with their own profit target; however, we would probably see a margin squeeze in 2H09 for drilling service providers as the current rates are 30% lower than those in 1H09. Companies experiencing poor performance in 1H09 were mainly in Aqua-product Exporting, Marine Transportation and Rubber sectors. We would not expect remarkable earnings improvement for these sectors in 2H09.

[washbrook] 04/8/2009 12:57

Why Thailand is the PLACE to be
SEE You Tube-19.7.09 on :-

[washbrook] 04/8/2009 12:28

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[pudpud] 04/8/2009 12:13

Thanks washbrook

[washbrook] 04/8/2009 12:04

Pudpud
The stock is up 56% this year

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see 30.6.09 Quarterly report:-

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current discount to NAV = -44.12%
share price=75c
NAV=$1.34

[pudpud] 04/8/2009 11:48

Anyone looked into VNL?

[dickbush] 04/8/2009 10:21

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited


Statement of intent to invest in closed-end funds

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited ("VOF" or "the Company"), an
AIM-traded investment company established to target key growth segments within
Vietnam's emerging market, announces its intention to invest in shares of other Vietnam-focused closed-end funds trading at substantial discounts.

The Board of Directors of the Company ("the Directors") have elected, subject to market conditions and following certain procedures, to allow VOF to invest up to 10 percent of its Net Asset Value ("NAV") at the time of purchase in shares of other closed-end Vietnam funds. This includes VinaLand Limited ("VNL"), an AIM-traded closed-end fund also managed by VinaCapital Investment Management Limited ("VinaCapital" or "the Investment Manager") with a primary focus on real estate investment.

Investment in VinaLand / Fee rebate

Real estate investment has been a key strategy for VOF since its inception.
After VinaLand was established in March 2006, VOF has selectively co-invested
alongside VinaLand in its direct real estate investments. However, over the past 6 months VNL shares have traded at discounts of up to 80%. In light of this substantial discount, the Board has elected to allow VOF to make its real estate investments indirectly through VNL shares.

The Investment Manager will rebate to VOF the management fees corresponding to the portion of VOF's holding in VNL shares.

As described in VNL's admission document, VOF has the right of first refusal to take up to a 25 percent direct stake in newly acquired VNL assets. VOF will
temporarily suspend this right during such periods of VOF investment in VNL
shares until further notice.

As at the date of this announcement, the Company held 14,749,044 shares in VNL, representing a 2.95 percent equity stake in VNL and 1.49 percent of the
Company's NAV.

In respect of any VOF investment in other funds managed by VinaCapital, the
Directors have instituted the following protocols. VOF will enter into fixed
arrangements with an independent broker to specifically purchase on its behalf
and within certain pre-set parameters, ordinary shares of the other fund or
funds managed by VinaCapital. VOF intends to acquire and hold shares in other
funds managed by VinaCapital via such arrangements on a rolling basis.
Furthermore, only the Independent Directors of the VOF Board shall be authorised to provide instructions to the third party broker and to vote on behalf of VOF at any shareholder meetings of the other funds managed by VinaCapital.

In the event that VOF invests in listed closed-end investment funds not managed by VinaCapital, the above protocols will not apply, and the Investment Manager shall exercise its judgment on behalf of the Company's shareholders within itsstandard trading authorities.
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Sounds like a good idea. I still don't understand why VOF's shareholders didn't vote to allow the company to buy in its own shares when the discount is large. Given the difficulty for institutions, never mind private investors, to value and deal in Vietnamese shares, I would have thought the discount could turn into a premium when investors get enthusiastic again about Vietnam.