Vinacapital Vietnam Oppo... Share Discussion Threads

[grippa] 24/1/2007 10:30

Don...I think thats the answer. Certainly VOF was overvalued and as VNH starts to become more invested the premium should rise...When and if (probably more likely when than if) the HCM index corrects, I am thinking of investing in VNH as they will have plenty of cash on the side to pick up cheaper shares.

[don muang] 24/1/2007 09:00

Perhaps both fairly valued now ..... Time will tell .... !!

"Regulators act to cool white hot stock market....
....However, securities companies remain optimistic about the upward market trend, forecasting the index would rocket to 1,500 points this month as investors continued to open new accounts for stock trading."

[grippa] 24/1/2007 08:55

Using my very basic calculations once again. The HCM index has gone up 37.2% since the 1st of jan. So we can assume the NAV of VOF has gone up 45.9% of that which is 17.07% taking it to $2.97 which puts the share price on a premium of 32.99%, much more in keeping with its rough longterm average of about 25%. This also brings it much more into line with other Vietnamese funds like VNH which with an share price of $2.83 and an assumed NAV of $2.10 (as its only 20% invested) it is on a premium of 34.76%...this is the first time the premiums have been reveresed...does it mean VNH is overvalued or VOF undervalued???

[traderabc] 22/1/2007 17:56

Nephin,
Are you around? I'd like to talk to you about a few things.

[grippa] 22/1/2007 10:24

Very true!!

[don muang] 19/1/2007 21:15

what da mean by corrupt ?.... do you mean cash for honours ?... or dropping criminal investgations in to arms contract bribary for political reasons ...? !!!
and on the business side then all companies can't all be honest like Enron and Langbar...
and of course old boy insider dealing has been eradicated in London ...

[grippa] 19/1/2007 20:16

lol...where did he come from? It used to be very corrupt...and still has some problems...long term they are on the right path though!!

[don muang] 19/1/2007 17:11

transco2 .... r u by anychance incognito the analyst from ML that produced the last report on VN?

[transco2] 19/1/2007 16:57

I have some with cob webs on the cirtificates.
They will yoyo and go back to sleep trust me.
The country is very corupt and you could lose your shirt and tie!!!

[grippa] 19/1/2007 10:18

Vietnamese Stocks Surge Past 1,000 for 12th Gain in 13 Sessions
2007-01-19 04:46 (New York)


By Jason Folkmanis
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnamese stocks surged in the
biggest gain in more than two weeks and the 12th advance in 13
sessions, buoyed by World Trade Organization accession, economic
growth and favorable comparisons with regional competitors.
The Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center's VN Index
climbed 4.1 percent, the biggest gain since Jan. 4, to a record
1,023.05. The bourse's benchmark index has surged 36 percent
this year and tripled since the end of 2005.
Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization on Jan. 11,
capping a two-month stretch in which the country hosted the
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, U.S. President George W.
Bush visited the Ho Chi Minh City bourse, and the government
said Vietnam's economy expanded 8.2 percent in 2006. The
government predicts growth may accelerate to 8.5 percent in 2007.
``After APEC and George Bush, everyone thinks Vietnam is
the next big thing,'' said Chris Freund, managing director of
Mekong Capital in Ho Chi Minh City. ``Everyone seems to be
discovering Vietnam for the first time. The media coverage of
Vietnam in the U.S. is off the charts.''
The surge has boosted the market value of the Ho Chi Minh
City bourse, which now has 106 companies, past the $12 billion
mark. At the end of 2005, the exchange had a market value of
less than $1 billion.
``The equity market in Vietnam has undergone an astounding
transformation over the last year,'' wrote Spencer White of
Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, in a Jan. 12 report. ``Not only does
economic growth remain robust, at circa 8 percent, but the
ongoing policy uncertainty in Thailand may provide some
incremental boost to the flow of foreign direct investment into
Vietnam.''
The SET Index, Thailand's key stock measure, has fallen
about 10 percent since Dec. 18, after the central bank imposed
capital controls to curb speculation on the baht. Bomb blasts in
Bangkok on New Year's Eve also undermined investor confidence.

Bank Share Sales

Share sales in larger state-owned companies in Vietnam will
be a market catalyst this year, White said in his report.
Vietnam's government said on Jan. 5 that it plans to sell shares
in four state-owned banks -- including three of the four biggest
-- this year.
Only one bank, Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint-Stock
Bank, trades on the Ho Chi Minh City bourse. Asia Commercial
Bank trades on Vietnam's smaller stock exchange in Hanoi.
Both banks are already at the 30 percent maximum for
foreign investment in Vietnamese banks, a limit that is also
expected to apply for the four state-owned banks to be sold this
year, according to Phung Khac Ke, deputy governor of the State
Bank of Vietnam.
The first two bank share sales are the Bank for Foreign
Trade of Vietnam, known as Vietcombank, and the Housing Bank of
the Mekong Delta. Vietcombank is Vietnam's second-biggest bank
by assets.
``The foreign limit on the banks looks likely to be
maintained at 30 percent,'' White said. ``Investors looking for
bank exposure will still have to wait for the initial public
offering of Vietcombank.''
The surge on the Vietnamese index has boosted shares of
Vietnam country funds traded on foreign stock exchanges, with
the London-listed Vietnam Opportunity Fund Ltd. jumping 24
percent this year while Vietnam Holdings Ltd., also traded in
London, has gained 10 percent this year.
``There's too much capital coming in too fast,'' said
Freund of Mekong Capital. ``The market is crazy now, but it
could get crazier. Markets always overshoot.''

[grippa] 19/1/2007 08:49

HCM index closes above 1000 for first time at 1023.05...market is up 38.1% so far this month.

[grippa] 16/1/2007 11:44

The HCM index closed at 983.60 today...that is a jump of 32.8% since the beg of Jan. The Stock market had hundreds of IPOs in dec and is now valued at $13b USD...Still amazingly small in global terms. If we try and extrapolate the indexes rise into the NAV of VOF (about 45.9% of the move as not all of VOF is invested in the index) then the NAV should have gone up 45.9% of 32.8%...so it should be around 15% higher than end dec at $2.92. Using the present share price of $4.57 the share price is at a premium of around 56.5%.
The average premium to NAV over the last year or so has been about 25% so quite evidently we are at much higher premiums than ever before.
However, this premium is against a backdrop whereby in mid nov last year, the VOF fund bought a 2.3% stake in Vinaconex (a construction company) for $5.7m usd...the share price went up 240% by the end of dec!!! So shares are booming.

The market is definitely bullish...will there be a correction...of course...
But according to a GS report by 2025 Vietnam will have a bigger economy than Turkey/Sweden/Spain...and only just slightly smaller than Canada and Italy.

The growth forecasts are huge...and only in the last few months have people really woken up to Vietnam so short term looking quite full now...but longterm this is an easy no brainer 10-20X your money!!! IMHO

[don muang] 15/1/2007 23:14

could be either depending on the future timescale ..... long term a buy? ..... short term a sell? all 'bets' off if major macro or regional problems.

[roman2325] 15/1/2007 21:09

I've been watching all the Vietnam plays for some time - is this still a buy or in fact now a sell on such a bizarre premium?

[don muang] 15/1/2007 11:06

PS: Another Vietnam play might be the new fund coming soon from London Asia - that should be available sometime in 2007 - hopefully in H1. it'll already be invested in opportunities by the time PI's get a chance to buy in.

[mangal] 15/1/2007 09:46

I've recently been looking to buy into Vietnam but find that all the Vietnam funds are trading at ridiculous premiums. It may be better to buy Vietnam UT/oiecs but I can't find any. does anyone know one?

[don muang] 15/1/2007 08:25

I think you'll find it is trading at a considerable premium..... Vietnam is a presently 'hot' country as regards investing in - I'll let grippa add further ......

[hectorp] 15/1/2007 08:21

grippa do you mean the share price is at a 45% premium to its underlying holdings?
Dont expect I got that right... these Trusts usually trade at a considerable discount to NAV.

[grippa] 12/1/2007 22:33

HCM index stormed above 900 today to an all time high of 914!!

[grippa] 10/1/2007 09:50

The HCM index is up 16.9% since jan 1st. The HCM index went up 17.4% in Dec and VOF NAV went up 8% so we got 45.9% of the indexes rise. I know this is not very accurate, but if we use the 45.9% on Januarys rise so far then the NAv should be up another 7.75% as of today! So NAV should be on $2.73 which means share price is on a premium of 45.23% as of today!?!?! Still pretty high, but at least the index is still moving in the right direction.

[grippa] 10/1/2007 09:23

HCM index rises to 865.71!!!

[don muang] 09/1/2007 13:04

Monthly report out at:



So VOF's NAV up about 8% compared to VNH's increasing by 3.5%. However, even after the fall in share price of VOF recently then it's still at a premium of about 54% - compared with 21% for VNH. Interesting choice - lower premium & lower % growth v higher premium & higher % growth.

[don muang] 02/1/2007 11:40

PS: And the Vietnamese gold 'play', Triple Junction (TPJ), is up 10% so far this morning. Nice day so far !!! All I need now is for VNH to catch up a bit