Verona Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[safman] 05/6/2015 10:04

Its a shame prof Clive Page is not with Verona.. Having been a student of his @ Kings College many years ago.. I can say a very atutute charactor..

The shareprice of Verona has been very strong lately.. there does seem to be background buyer here..

saffy..

[wilk1] 04/6/2015 18:32

Tipped today somewhere ? Just been tipped off about this. Does anyone know the average daily volume approximately. TIA

[senor_sensible] 04/6/2015 12:10

I read recently COPD deaths in china could be as high a 1 million per year mainly from the richer developed areas where they will buy drugs. That's a big market interest in treatment.

Get your skates on because this could be over 10 bagger without too much effort.

[greazley1] 27/5/2015 12:03

Are there any parallels to be drawn here with the recent share price rise at VAL? Their deal involved a consolidation of shares followed by a rapid rise

[vasilis] 21/5/2015 12:18

Corbs

Quite right, even the Hardman report refers to 'a $3.2bn opportunity poorly served by existing drugs, treating exacerbations of COPD.'

With respect to future market potential such as China - this paragraph from a 2013 BMJ report tells its own story :-

'Since tobacco consumption is one of the major contributing factors for the increase in COPD, the prevalence of the disease will increase up to the year 2020 in the USA and Europe. [2] The peak tobacco consumption of age was during the 1950s in USA but the 1970s in Japan. Further, tobacco consumption was still increasing in China. A survey found that the average daily consumption of tobacco per person in China rose from one cigarette in 1952 to ten cigarettes in 1990—a rate similar to that in the USA 50 years earlier. [3] The survey also estimated that the prevalence of COPD was 3% of the total population in the 1990s, but could increase to 10% in the 2020s.' [Current Population : 1.3 billion].

The report can be found at -

Clearly then any current estimates will be revised as and when Phase II and further trials are hopefully passed. And if more than one Big Pharma eyes up the opportunity at some point in the future, who knows what could happen to the share price if a bun-fight develops. All I can say is that I don't think that a 19p post Phase II share price (conservative in my view) and my own c.70p post successful Phase III are unreasonable bearing in mind how disruptive RPL554 could be to current medicines IF trials go as well as planned and the drug continues to be well tolerated at higher doses and requiring fewer doses over a 24hr period.

[corbine] 21/5/2015 09:24

Vas- the 3.2billion market etc is only suggestive of exacerbation area not maintenance therapies of copd??? isnt vrp looking for exacerbation areas (acute copd flare ups) AND maintenance dosing and other settings? thus there is a much bigger potential market (in due course)
Also re industry suggestions of future markets i suspect thats under reported and not taking into account far east ticking time bomb for future generation of copd cases, china etc-yet to materialise as the knock on effect of western/cheap tobacco companies takes years for copd cases to materialise, and as chinas healthcare/wages plays catch up with western world, the copd cases will materialise in due course-hence much bigger market.
imo-jmo of course.
looking forward to the results of this current trial
:_))

[treeshake] 21/5/2015 08:21

Thx for that post just looking into this - don't usually invest in pharma

[vasilis] 21/5/2015 08:00

Very heartening to see fellow long-term holders move into positive territory with their holdings. For those still 'under water' I think that the momentum is now changing for genuine clinical reasons, rather than through any puerile unsubstantiated rampings that were all too common in the past so I expect the positive momentum to continue.

The Hardman research report which Tim has now put in his header makes excellent reading and the valuation of 19p per share post a successful Phase II is possibly a bit conservative bearing in mind the potential. Nevertheless, it is more or less with my own rough estimate if we go beyond this and reach a post Phase III phase. For those interested or new to this BB see posts 96 and 99 in respect of estimated potential.

[steven1404] 21/5/2015 06:01

nice to see we have had a good day and was nice to see my holding 5 grand up on the day lets hope for small steady rises before the next results are out

[shakin not stirred] 20/5/2015 23:39

Marvellous. Expecting another blue day tomorrow and well done to all that have waited patiently. I was saving to go on a gap year mid 2016. Decided that I will invest money saved into this share tomorrow and double my holding dependant on the opening price obviously. Top slice some after the next results and then 2016 expect this to be 5-10 fold what it is today having read the posts and other literature recently posted.Thanks to those that post their findings and articles connected to rpl554.

[fozzie] 20/5/2015 22:08

I bought Jan 14 at 4.5p and after a heart attack (not literally) doubled up at 2p in April 14. Very very happy with recent rises which see me +33% :o))

[aimshares] 20/5/2015 16:36

News flow to come for 2015/2016



Anticipated 12 months milestones

2015

Q1 RPL554 Interim data Ph1/2 clinical trial. Done

Q2. RPL554 Start clinical asthma study

Q3. RPL554 phase 1/2 data SAD/MAD study

Q4. Start combination study RPL554+SoC

2016

Q1. RPL554 data asthma study

Q3. Data RPL554 combination study

Q2/3. Start RPL554 Ph2b study ( The big Trial )

[isambardkb] 20/5/2015 15:42

Have been sitting tight since Dec 2010. Patience...

[duplicate book] 20/5/2015 15:40

A reality check!

[little minx] 20/5/2015 14:12

Guys been looking at this what brought it down from the 16p levels?

[pappupops] 20/5/2015 14:08

my average 16p

[aimshares] 20/5/2015 11:32

Agree DB been a long long time ,I still have a long way to go before it its my average cost.

[duplicate book] 20/5/2015 09:08

Took a while, but nicely back in profit! Lets get this back up to the 7p range again :o))

[shakin not stirred] 20/5/2015 08:53

Timbo Thanks again for the full version it makes excellent reading. Cannot help but believe now is the right time to get in if you do not want to wait more than 6mths to a year for 3-4 fold profits minimum potentially. All info for rpl554 and direction of fast track is stacking up nicely for "significant shareholder value".

[mirabeau] 20/5/2015 08:28

Looking to breakout into blue sky

[timbo003] 19/5/2015 19:09

Thanks for that tradingstock and Gingerplant

I see there is a full version of the report here:



Well worth a read and I have now added the link to the header.

[gingerplant] 19/5/2015 17:20

Verona Pharma plc – Clinical data Increased probability of success,Hardman & Co report

Verona Pharma plc LON:VRP is developing first-in-class drugs that treat unmet medical needs in respiratory disease. RPL554 is being fast-tracked to commercialisation by focusing on a $3.2bn market segment poorly serviced by existing drugs. Key Phase II trial results are due to be announced during the second half of 2015. There is a significant mis-match between the current EV (£25m) and a potential inflection point on positive Phase II data in 2H’15 when considering that median valuations for Phase II respiratory assets have headline valuations of $285m (£190m), or 19p per share.

Strategy: Verona Pharma plc is focused on respiratory medicines targeting areas of unmet medical need. Given its limited resources and competitive target markets, management has a clear strategy to develop and commercialise its lead drug as quickly as possible for a $3.2bn opportunity poorly served by existing drugs, treating exacerbations of COPD.

Verona Pharma Products: RPL554, a first-in-class dual PDE3/PDE4 inhibitor with both bronchodilatory and anti-inflammatory activity, is in clinical development for three indications. Initially, as an add-on for acute exacerbations in COPD patients. However, the drug has potential also in the maintenance therapy of COPD patients, and in treatment of cystic fibrosis.

Valuation: To date, about £10m has been invested in R&D to get VRP where it is today, compared to an enterprise value of £25m. Positive outcomes from the phase II trial with RPL554 in COPD, which are due in 2H’15, would reach another significant value inflection point and allow management to start negotiations with potential licensing partners. Novel phase II respiratory assets have median headline valuations of $285m (£190m).

Risks: As with all drug companies, the main risk is that a product fails in clinical trials. In addition, even when drugs have completed their clinical development there remains regulatory and commercial risks. Rising cash burn on R&D investment and corporate infrastructure over the next three years is likely to require further capital increases.

Investment summary: Clinical trials for RPL554 have a binary outcome. Historically, efficacy of PDE inhibitors has been positive, but putative drugs have failed due to side effects. The positive safety outcome, even at high doses, announced on 23rd March has de-risked, in part, the Phase II efficacy part of this COPD trial. A positive outcome here later in 2015 should result in a significant increase in shareholder value.

[meijiman] 19/5/2015 14:22

You would have to say the Directors are in a better position than even the most informed pi on a BB to know whether these are worth buying more of.

[127tolmers] 18/5/2015 15:10

More buying by directors today at 3.4-3.5p. Amazing that their last buy on 3 March was at 2.432p, how fast things move!