Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 21/1/2019 22:01

I'm not sure it's so practical.
The article was 2015 and another article I found mentioned continuing upward pressure.

I do work for Rolls Royce and they are increasing the time to payment.

They are powerful and can do it - so they do.

Usual mix of many factors. Avoiding bad debts is the key. Long and late payment is the norm.

apad

[rp19] 21/1/2019 21:47

Useful article. I can see how many construction project can run into trouble. A subbie laying road studs on a highway scheme has to wait for utilities to be protected, the surface to be provided and the road marker to do their bit before they get involved. Lots of potential for delay and lots of people involved. I don't think that all of PTSG's activities fit into the complex category. PAT testing and window cleaning are fairly standard activities and should be easier to obtain payment on these.

[apad] 21/1/2019 20:20

Found it, RP19.
Scott is wrong.
"A 2015 study by the Asset Based Finance Association found that construction firms were having to wait, on average, over 15 weeks to receive payment, and the delays were growing. Waits for payment in this industry increased 22% in five years from 88 days in 2008.2 "

Excellent paper here:

[apad] 21/1/2019 20:12

ps
Also, I don't know how common factoring (selling debt at a discount) is int he construction industry.

[apad] 21/1/2019 20:09

2016
"B2B customers in the construction industry are the slowest payers. On average, it takes them twice as long as customers in the other industries to settle past due bills.
The construction industry generated an above average (for the country) proportion of overdue invoices. According to most of the respondents (around 60%) this is likely to be chiefly due to liquidity constraints of customers in this industry.
Around 30.0% of British respondents expect payment practices of B2B customers in the construction industry to deteriorate over the next 12 months. No significant change is anticipated in respect to payment practices of other industries."

[apad] 21/1/2019 19:58

Yup, wouldn't have been a bad time to top slice though.

Scott reckons he has dug into the acquisitions and compared PTSG with the "UK average" to produce two and a half times as long to wait for payment. I don't know whether it is the average for the construction industry - I suppose it must be.

apad

[rp19] 21/1/2019 19:19

Sales noted. They still own a sack load between them.

[apad] 21/1/2019 17:38

PTSG Director Sales

21 Jun 2018 Roger Teasdale Sell 2,482,389 @ 172.50p £4,282,121.03
19 Jan 2018 Paul Teasdale Sell 750,000 @ 202.50p £1,518,750.00
19 Jan 2018 John Foley Sell 750,000 @ 202.50p £1,518,750.00

apad

[rp19] 21/1/2019 16:57

Thanks for your thoughts on PTSG. I hold and generally do like the story but buy and build is not without risk.

[bioking] 21/1/2019 15:27

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[apad] 21/1/2019 15:16

Hi RP19,
Scott has said this a few times before. When I bought I looked into this issue, FWIW I came to the conclusion that this is a characteristic of the market that they are in - as such it should be factored into the quotes.

Note: it is a highly competitive market and margins are nothing to write home about.

I decided that what is important is not debtor days (it would be if everyone else was different) but bad debts.
After all, 'high debtor days' can be a proxy for bad debts.

I decided that the management knew what they were doing, which opinion was supported by their small exposure to Carillion.

This is not an area that I would normally be involved with, but PTSG is a roll-up company in a fragmented niche so, I believe, can cope with the environment within which it operates.

apad

[rp19] 21/1/2019 14:17

PTSG - Paul Scott questions the (very) high debtor days (c 150). What are your views on this Apad?

[redartbmud] 21/1/2019 12:51

Bree

I believe that shows the commitment, and deep pockets and belief, that the directots have in the business and the business model.

red

[apad] 21/1/2019 12:13

BREE
"One thing to note is the sheer amount of director buys since September, with no less than nine director dealings RNSs. No fewer than twelve directors and PDMRs bought – some repeatedly – purchasing just over £1.3 million in stock, many of the deals occurring above today’s price"

[redartbmud] 21/1/2019 11:48

APAD

Yes it is. If online trading had been around for a much longer period of time, I could have made far better, and more profitable use, of it. Cheap dealing has opened up the ability to add to a shareholding, at minimal relative risk, over a period of time, to create a large shareholding in certain 'core stocks' that should be held in a long term portfolio.
I am far from perfecting the technique, but then again, I do not want to invest the time in creating sophisticated charts that should produce a better outcome, but which take too much effort for the marginal return that is possible.
A younger person, with a greater anticipated lifespan, has a far better outlook on using the technique over time.

red

[apad] 21/1/2019 11:20

RDSB is a lovely share for your technique, red.
At these levels a timing error can simply be solved by waiting and drawing the income.

I suppose it is an extension of btfd in successful shares (large or small), but is also valid for a sine wave company?


is a nice reflective chat.

apad😊

[redartbmud] 21/1/2019 10:50

Damn. My gut was telling me to hold on for £24.10 on RDSB, but I chickened out:-(
Top target £24.25 and middle £24.15.

red

[redartbmud] 21/1/2019 10:48

APAD

I do look at 50day and 200 day averages, combined with MACD, RSI and the Fast Stochastic indicators, but I also take into account:
1. 1 day, 1 week and 3 month highs and lows, and the short term trend.
2. The fact that there might have been a high number of traders who bought the dip and are ready to get out and move on to the next opportunity, and therefore create a drag on the short term share price.
3. Overall sentiment based on currently available data and opinion - FWIW. The Oil sector is difficult to read, because of the existing forward contracts and the reported production numbers vs anticipated demand. Forward numbers need to be taken with a pinch of salt!!
4.I have 2 or 3 key target prices, at which I am happy to buy or sell. I recognize that they may be off the bottom or top, but fall within a tolerance that is acceptable to my model.

I then apply my gut to the scenario and take the plunge.

red

[redartbmud] 21/1/2019 10:36

Rpc, one of my last year's competition entries, is proving to be a stubborn nut.
The 'takeover' negotiations have dragged on far too long, and Appollo Global Management are hard nosed yoodles.
By my reckoning, it should have happened before close of play on 31 December and therefore enhanced my score. I hope that the extension to 23 January will be the final throw of the dice
I have a fairly big holding that would appreciate a bid that begins, at least, with a 9 number.
I have all of the gear ready but, as I will be out for most of the day, I am likely to be conspicuous as I move around the area:-)

red

[apad] 21/1/2019 10:34

Hi red,

Do you have a measure of volatility, like the VIX, or do you just look at a share price bouncing up and down around a mean?

The China syndrome does loom large and I am not sure how useful a single figure is to describe a complex system - even if it is accurate.
The yoodles would give their eye teeth for a headline figure like that.

The market reaction to DIS will have dented my Comparison figures no end.

apad😊

[redartbmud] 21/1/2019 10:24

APAD

I prefer to get down to negative costs, over the longer term, but there are alternative scenarios and Rdsb fits the criteria at this point in time.
The cost of the shares is almost self-financing from the February dividend, so I see that as an acceptable option.
My overall aim, with long term holds in my portfolio, is to make the price of the shares held atomic bomb proof. In the event of a major crash in markets, my capital should be protected, even if if is severely dented in the short term.

The trade is in my Sipp, where I missed a trick with my initial purchase. I was far too early in halving my holding in order to bring down the average share price.
I remember that, at the time, your comments were that I had sold too early, and you were proved to be absolutely correct.

At the present time, I see the volatility as being an opportunity to trade in and out of the shares, with relatively little risk, but with the chance to add more shares, at a yield approaching a fairly safe 6%.

Apart form that, it is a bit of fun to brighten up the days.
I must sharpen my thinking though. I have only made two trades since 18 December and there have been more opportunities that I have missed.
The muted China growth numbers, (I don't think they are necessarily to be believed), Trumps current antics and the European dancing around the handbags should provide the platform.

red

[apad] 21/1/2019 10:15

2 open positions in FEVR US. One a week old.
Quite a large percentage increase in expensive employees........
Hope they've got the turnover to justify buying more expensive yoodles.
apad🤔

[apad] 21/1/2019 09:50

Very satisfying, butI thought you were only really satisfied with negative costs, red?
apad🤔

[redartbmud] 21/1/2019 09:29

Value judgement.
Took profit on RDSB @ £24.0835p
The shares that I kept have cost 55.975p each! The next dividend should be c36p per share.
Very slow progress, but I may well trade them again very soon, if volatility persists.

red