Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 23/12/2017 21:30

tlatsatt

bitcoin not a roulette investment.
"Man, yuu cannot be serious" John McEnroe.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 23/12/2017 20:44

I can replace idp with bitcoin if anyone feels that bitcoin is less rouletty than idp :)

[attrader] 23/12/2017 20:26

thanks tlh, updated your entries. Like CAKE, FB, GOOG ..

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 23/12/2017 20:11

If idp is considered a roulette wheel stock im very happy to replace it.
Cheers

[attrader] 23/12/2017 19:06

Multibagger

ARC
Been in ARC for several years ago now. Stickiness of blue chip customers (only 2 customer losses over 10 years apparently), strong cash generation rate, no debt, hold about £2.6m cash, and now dividend paying (progressive policy indicated). New products in trials at 5 Tier 1 banks and participant in Symphony and OpenMAMA forums which could widen the addressable market. Very conservative, low key management and accounting style - the typical boring but solid company with high barriers to entry. Management seem quietly confident.

IDEA
Big UK player in Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) software space with several high profile customers across health, banking, rail, air transportation etc. About 160 NHS Trusts and all the Scottish NHS Trusts use them. Also 8 out of top 10 accounting groups use them.Growing upwards of 20%+ year on year. Solid track record of integrating acquisitions, paying down manageable debt and dividend paying.

IQE
Strong IP portfolio, proven tech capability and strong backing from Welsh government, massive expansion of manufacturing capacity in train and oversubscribed £100m recent placing. Technology has high barriers to entry and long lead times for competitors to try and catch up. I expect it to be acquired for the tech/IP in due course.I missed the ARM story, but won't miss this one. High PE stock - for cutting edge tech PE is the wrong metric, though not sure which metric ever makes sense.

LTG
Very strong track record of Andrew Brode (in particular) and Jonathan Satchell who own about 30-40% of the company. Strong suite of customisable products, complementary strategic acquisitions and excellent geographic spread. High US income through Rustici acquisition (may benefit from Trump's tax reforms). Online/elearning market can only get bigger. Successful ongoing delivery of a massive UK civil service contract (in conjunction with KPMG) could be a reference customer for further Whitehall contracts given Brexit. Serviceable debt and dividend paying. Intention to develop into a 100 million business (having upped target from a 50 million business).

CYAN
Looks like at the threshold of a turnaround in fortunes with smart metering space (electricity, gas, water and now IoT) developing at a rapid pace across the world. About $100m purchase orders signed over the last year or so across a number of countries - Sweden,UK, Iran, Bangladesh, India. Works with local/in country partners who do the implementation and CYAN provides the technology/communication solutions and is partnering a number of meter manufacturers, as the tech is meter agnostic. Excellent suite of communication technologies which are able to address different economic market segments, local terrain and built up area issues and at differing points of the technology maturity cycle. Expects to get at least £25m from UK "not spot coverage" in UK smart meter rollout. Moving from a hardware to a recurrent software, multi year, per meter revenue model (not very different from ARM model broadly speaking). John Cronin, Chairman has a good track record of several successful exits/sell ons (about £650m according to company website). Directors including JC took one year salaries in equity...and have bought the dips/propped up the share price.

redartbmud
Arc
Maiden dividend announced, which indicates that the business is maturing as a strong business generating good cash returns. Plenty of scope for it’s products in the market.

Vanl
Undemanding rating and an active shareholder who is the former holder. He will keep the management honest and certainly on their toes to outperform. Outside chance of a takeover.

Ltg
Expect more activity. The statement below says it all.
When the AIM-listed firm entered the market in 2013 it sought to achieve run-rate revenues of £50m and EBITDA margins of 20% by the end of 2018, but Learning Technologies' 2017 interim results revealed that the company had hit targets twelve months ahead of schedule.
However, as part of Tuesday's event, the e-learning group outlined a plan focused on doubling run-rate revenues to £100m with an EBITDA in excess of £25m by the end of 2020.
Learning Technologies said it planned to achieve the new objectives through a combination of strong organic growth paired with strategic acquisitions that complemented its current business model.

Rpc
operating in a fragmented market, ripe for further consolidation. The tintins marked it down on the number of acquisitions in the year. I think that they are wrong, and expect more activity and further organic and acquisition based growth in 2018. Cost savings along the line.
Rws – Unfortunately keeps issuing paper, but continuing to build a niche business in a growing market. The purchase of Moravia is transformational.

Mattjos
AAZ
Low cost of production & AISC, valued at 25% of the CAPEX to date on the Gedabek plant & equipment. Sat on a huge, mainly unexplored, acreage although previous Russian data (as given in the IPO docs) gives a strong indication what is really present. New Director of Geology (Stephen Westhead ex. Polyus) is really starting to make his mark and has already found the previously unknown Ugur deposit right on their doorstep. The CEO has leant his own cash to the company on two occasions rather than dilute the precious equity - a rare event for an AIM miner.
NED Prof. John Monhemius is one of the worlds leading authorities on pm processing techniques & has been instrumental in their SART plant and then how to process the complex ore using combination of Agitation then Flotation or, Flotation then Agitation. They have a surplus of both oxide and sulphide ore now stacked at Gedabek in case of any harsh winter weather this year.
The underground exploration activities at Gedabek this winter and the fan drilling scheduled for early 2018 are likely to prove the catalysts for a big increase in JORC resources. Meanwhile, the healthy cashflow keeps reducing the debt (on plan).
News over the next 3 months needs to be watched very closely.
Against all this, the state mining entity AZERGOLD has a gold mine close by but lacks the technical skills to develop it effectively .. A bid for the entirety of AAZ is a possibility and at even 3x current price is dirt cheap

STAR
It has some persuasive tracking technology and I believe will reach a point in 2018 where recurring revenues cover their costs. The business model looks very appealing & so too the potential for rapid scale-up.

STCM
It is simply far too cheap and looks a perfect takeover target in the acquisitive global cement market. A unique dry-line operation in Kaz.

SYM
It is a long term serial underperformer but, now has a strong major investor (Somerston) with a seat on the board and they are turning this company from a lifestyle operation into a solid business. Looks likely to pay a maiden divi next year. Strong marketing/branding and big distribution pipeline in place to push new products. Strong Bed'n'Isa activity by Directors this year.

WTI
It is probably the riskiest one but, Orion seem strongly persuaded of the opportunity and the recent acquisition of Katumba from a reluctant but forced seller (Intrepid Mines) looks transformational. Highly leveraged to copper price so a mining play on EV adoption.

Gsbmba99
Arcontech (ARC)
for reasons Janeann mentioned. Shares are good value. They get paid in advance. Lots of cash on the balance sheet. Have already stated they have enough cash so, in absence of any M&A, could show interesting dividend growth. New product currently in trials.

Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1)
2H17 gross mortgage lending has been up high single digits YoY and UKFinance/Council of Mortgage Lenders recently upgraded 2017 and 2018 forecasts (albeit modestly). New technology being introduced to reduce paperwork which should hopefully benefit adviser productivity. Opening up of product switch market (new mortgage with same lender) means market opportunity £90bn (or +30%) larger than 18 months ago. New direct to consumer advertising commences in 2018. Despite recent senior hires and advertising, no change to forecasts whereas most companies would have reduced as a result of "investing" for growth. Makes me think things are going a bit better than previously planned.

Liontrust (LIO)
They bought the sustainable investments business from Alliance Trust in April. They hired a new head of distribution about a year ago. They've hired a fixed income manager and strategist who, judging by the Kames funds on Trustnet that changed manager the day before LIO announced their arrival, used to co-manage Kames Strategic Global Bond ($638 AuM according to Trustnet), Kames Strategic Bond (£320m), Kames High Yield Bond (£908m) and Kames Sterling Corporate Bond (£604m). If 10% of his prior clients follow him, could lead to nice amount of net new money. Also, Reade Griffith (Polygon) owns 10%.

Jarvis Securities (JIM)
I am hoping for EPS growth attractively into double digits for duration of interest rate raising cycle. See my previous comments on thread.

Premier Asset Management (PAM)
It's a retail focused asset manager that distributes almost exclusively through IFAs. They have a bit of a niche in the "income" category and within that in multi-asset funds. From the admission document (pdf page 17): "The IA has identified multi-asset and income funds as long term beneficiaries of changes in the UK pensions and retirement market and AUM invested in the multi-asset market in the UK has grown by a CAGR of 20.2 per cent. over the past 10 years." For reference, 1.202^10-1=529%. Every quarter since fiscal Q313 has seen positive net new money. The distribution platform is powerful with >£500m of gross sales in each of last four quarters. Unfortunately, net sales over that period "only" £746m. The fact that a surprisingly large proportion of their customers are in pre-RDR funds means that revenue and costs are distorted. Net management fee (after payment of trail commission): £27.6m (FY15), £33.3m (FY16), £40.9m (FY17). Costs (excl. trail commission): £20m (FY15), £22.8m (FY16), £26.6m (FY17). Op margin (% net revenue excl trail commission): 27.5% (FY15), 31.5% (FY16), 35% (FY17). That's 750bps of additional margin created through net revenue rising faster than net costs. Because it's retail oriented, I can track progress through the fund fact sheets (which represent 94% of corporate AuM). AuM increased at 13/23 funds in Jun, 19/24 in Jul, 17/23 in Aug, 16/23 in Sep, 22/23 in Oct and 16/23 in Nov despite most of the funds paying dividends very regularly (sometimes monthly). AuM movement: -£8.4m (Jun), £120.1m (Jul), £75.6m (Aug), £68.5m (Sep), £181.3m (Oct) and £48.5m (Nov). The multi-asset series of funds were £2.884bn as at May and were £3.225bn as at Nov. Valuation not nearly as cheap as it was so return may be down to EPS growth.

Janeann

ACSO
Global ticketing specialist providing technology to improve customer experience primarily in leisure attractions theme parks etc. Leader in its field. Started out to avoid queueing at theme parks and developed since. Large global customer base. Growing by both expansion and acquisition, and growth expected to continue.

ARC
Is a small niche player and provides solutions to managing real time market data - both software and consultancy. Number of very high profile clients with recurring revenue streams. Recently started paying dividends.

LTG
is a dividend paying company providing digital learning solutions and interactive media programmes to a broad range of clients including government. Aiming to grow by both broadening its range of products and clients across a broader geographic range as well as via acquisition.

PRSM
Software company specialising and leading the field in development of robotic process automation particularly of more routing back office tasks enabling the freeing up staff to do more productive tasks. Globally active in events and with a diverse range of high profile partners prsm is at the forefront of the developing technology.

ZTF
Specialist manufacturer of plastic foam for a very broad and diverse range of industries including sports, automotive & construction. Many specialist uses and complex production process. Recent deal with Nike. Expanded production base in China now coming onstream and plans to expand in UK also. Dividend payer.

Attrader
Burford Capital
They provide finance for litigations which is a market in flux. Historically, they have been generating 25% IRR on their investments. Litigation business is uncorrelated with rest of economy which should reduce risk in portfolio. Ample room to compound capital as market is still growing. Credit: Hydrus

IG Index
UK Based spread betting operator with exceptional customer service. They were hit by potential new regulations however they are diversifying into traditional brokerage businesses (SIPP, ISAs). That should improve stickiness of revenues and reduce necessity to constantly recruit new clients. High returns on capital, good management. Like the CEO. Credit: APAD

Amadeus
Spanish market leader in processing travel transactions. More people traveling due to cheap flights, growing middle class and wealth generation in Asia. Sticky revenues with potential to grow at 6% in line with market growth. Credit: Terry Smith)

AppleGreen
Irish forecourt retailer acquiring petrol stations from oil majors exiting the business. They refurbish forecourts, rebrand them, add food & cloth retailing. Forecourt retailing is high margin business as customers would pay more for buying snacks in the middle of motorway. Management owns a decent stake. Credit: Wexboy)

MSAB-B
Swedish mobile forensics software provider competing in a niche market with only few other companies. Their competitive edge is number of devices supported by their software. Law enforcement agencies need a reliable platform to quickly extract data from suspect device and decipher messages. 50+% recurring revenues. Mobile forensics market is growing at a decent rate.

Lauders

HOC
Gold and silver miner with South American operations. FTSE 250 and pays a dividend. Reducing debt and as precious metal prices increase so do their profits. If 2018 is financially rocky as some say it will be then HOC should do well. My largest holding by a mile.

SDX
"Roulette wheel" to some but my 2nd largest holding and I think they will do well in 2018. Egyptian and Moroccan operations of mainly gas. Current drilling has been on a roll & coming up roses. The share-price is under-performing and hopefully will be rerated in 2018.

MSLH
Been a good year for this company that offers natural stone and concrete hard landscaping products, supplying the construction, home improvement and landscape markets. They are also into street furniture that protects public from some of the terror events we have witnessed over recent years. I believe they will continue to do well and acquire select businesses to expand their offerings. Current offer: 437.30p

ITV
Think everyone knows about this broadcaster. Been weak lately but the recent Disney/Time Warner news among other things has shifted momentum a bit and a new CEO next year may all mean a better year for the company. Pays dividends and special dividends. Always a chance of a bid/merger with them too. Been mentioned countless times in the past and no doubt will continue. Current offer: 166p
BVXP
No need to really comment on them here. Everyone pretty much knows the deal and why they are a great BTFD opportunity if the chance ever comes. Current offer: 2550p

APAD
FEVR
a new international brand, creative management, minimal costs, pays a divi, needs to succeed in the US)

BOO
stunning CEO combination, huge barriers to entry, disruptive, buy direct from the brand not through an on-line shop, big spend but not difficult, no negatives
ABC
products gain value the more they are used, becoming the gorilla on the block but high costs developing their systems - need to prove success in developing software and distribution centres)

BVXP
niche technology, hard to compete with, very low costs, losing an income stream, needs to succeed with Siemens collaboration

TSTL
novel, low cost technology in an important area, international expansion is important, will probably be sold on in a year or two if it continues to be successful

[janeann] 23/12/2017 19:03

wow - arc's become popular! and LTG! welcome multibagger - think you were in arc a while before me.

[attrader] 23/12/2017 18:37

2018 entries so far

APAD - FEVR, BOO, ABC, BVXP, TSTL
Lauders - HOC, SDX, MSLH, ITV, BVXP
Panic Investor - Missing entries for 2018
Attrader - BUR, IGG, AMS.MD, APPGN.L, MSAB-B.ST
Thelongandtheshortandthetall - GOOG, FB, IDP.L - Missing two more stocks & reasoning
Return_of_apeman - GFM, AMER, TAP, MRS, MTFB - Missing reasoning
Janeann - ACSO, ARC, LTG, PRSM, ZTF
Gsbmba99 - ARC, MAB1, LIO, JIM, PAM
Mattjos - AAZ, STAR, STCM, SYM, WTI
Redartbmud - ARC, VANL, LTG, RPC, RWS
Multibagger - ARC, IDEA, LTG, IQE, CYAN

Please let me know if i have missed anyone

TLH, return_of_apemen, Panic Investor.. please see comments against your entries

[panic investor] 23/12/2017 14:11

Just wishing you lot a happy Christmas - one of the more informative threads to say the least !

[gsbmba99] 23/12/2017 12:53

Given recent interest, cross-posted from ARC thread:
If you are looking to do further research on ARC and their competitors, a handful of companies were mentioned at the AGM. MDX Technology ( ), Tick42 ( and ), Solace ( ) and Vela ( ). It would appear, MDX and Tick42 (both UK private companies who file abbreviated returns at Companies House ie balance sheet only) are probably the closest competitors. MDX previously known as Gissing and Tick42 previously known as Dealing Object Technology. ARC's former CEO, Andrew Miller, was (but may not still be since he's not on the website anymore) business development director at Tick42. The overlap with Solace and Vela appears more limited as they both seem to venture into trading whereas ARC does not.

[multibagger] 23/12/2017 11:55

Cheers and thanks, attrader !

Wishing everyone a Christmas filled with much peace and joy :)

[attrader] 23/12/2017 11:11

APAD, please find yahoo tickers below.

Amadeus IT Group, S.A. (AMS.MC)
Micro Systemation AB (MSAB-B.ST)
Applegreen Plc (APGN.L)


multibagger, I'll add you in.


I'll close entries for 2018 on 1st of Jan. A week to go. Loving it :)

[multibagger] 23/12/2017 08:04

Good morning all :)

My five picks for the pot please...all decent sized holdings for me

ARC: Been in ARC for several years ago now. Stickiness of blue chip customers (only 2 customer losses over 10 years apparently), strong cash generation rate, no debt, hold about £2.6m cash, and now dividend paying (progressive policy indicated). New products in trials at 5 Tier 1 banks and participant in Symphony and OpenMAMA forums which could widen the addressable market. Very conservative, low key management and accounting style - the typical boring but solid company with high barriers to entry. Management seem quietly confident.

IDEA: Big UK player in Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) software space with several high profile customers across health, banking, rail, air transportation etc. About 160 NHS Trusts and all the Scottish NHS Trusts use them. Also 8 out of top 10 accounting groups use them.Growing upwards of 20%+ year on year. Solid track record of integrating acquisitions, paying down manageable debt and dividend paying.

IQE: Strong IP portfolio, proven tech capability and strong backing from Welsh government, massive expansion of manufacturing capacity in train and oversubscribed £100m recent placing. Technology has high barriers to entry and long lead times for competitors to try and catch up. I expect it to be acquired for the tech/IP in due course.I missed the ARM story, but won't miss this one. High PE stock - for cutting edge tech PE is the wrong metric, though not sure which metric ever makes sense.

LTG: Very strong track record of Andrew Brode (in particular) and Jonathan Satchell who own about 30-40% of the company. Strong suite of customisable products, complementary strategic acquisitions and excellent geographic spread. High US income through Rustici acquisition (may benefit from Trump's tax reforms). Online/elearning market can only get bigger. Successful ongoing delivery of a massive UK civil service contract (in conjunction with KPMG) could be a reference customer for further Whitehall contracts given Brexit. Serviceable debt and dividend paying. Intention to develop into a 100 million business (having upped target from a 50 million business).

CYAN:Looks like at the threshold of a turnaround in fortunes with smart metering space (electricity, gas, water and now IoT) developing at a rapid pace across the world. About $100m purchase orders signed over the last year or so across a number of countries - Sweden,UK, Iran, Bangladesh, India. Works with local/in country partners who do the implementation and CYAN provides the technology/communication solutions and is partnering a number of meter manufacturers, as the tech is meter agnostic. Excellent suite of communication technologies which are able to address different economic market segments, local terrain and built up area issues and at differing points of the technology maturity cycle. Expects to get at least £25m from UK "not spot coverage" in UK smart meter rollout. Moving from a hardware to a recurrent software, multi year, per meter revenue model (not very different from ARM model broadly speaking). John Cronin, Chairman has a good track record of several successful exits/sell ons (about £650m according to company website). Directors including JC took one year salaries in equity...and have bought the dips/propped up the share price.

Good luck all :)

[lauders] 23/12/2017 07:53

I would nominate HCM as a stalwart if you agree Apad. Mentioned them before and should have bought. They will be one of my StockChallenge entries for 2018.

[apad] 23/12/2017 07:34

attrader

What are the epic codes for:

Amadeus
AppleGreen
MSAB-B

Presumably Google or Yahoo.

apad

[apad] 23/12/2017 07:04

Put together two portfolios for tracking through 2018 - zeroed at end of 2017.

Stalwarts (RSW/SPX/GHH/HILS/ABC/HLMA/VCT/DPH/CRDA)
Stars (PTSG/TAP/KAZ/FDEV/GAW/RSW/PRSM/UKOG/FEVR/MGNS/WJG/LTG)

Stars are top performers from the 2017 entries.

Stalwarts are my arbitrary choices - could do with a few more;

apad

[apad] 23/12/2017 06:29

Notayesman classic:

" a company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.

That as the Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is from Charles Mackay describing one part of the South Sea Bubble of the early 1720s. Let us now return to today.

The Company is already in the preliminary stages of evaluating specific opportunities involving blockchain technology. The discussions are only in the preliminary stages but indicate the areas of focus for the Company."

[apad] 23/12/2017 06:20

...and the more you research the luckier you get.
apad

[janeann] 22/12/2017 17:46

Arc - pure luck I suspect

[attrader] 22/12/2017 15:18

WEY education holding investor day on 10th Jan for anyone interested .

[apad] 22/12/2017 14:57

Had another walk around ARC. Liking my newest, tiny puppy.

How do you get in so early janeann?

Respect.

apad

[attrader] 22/12/2017 14:56

Nice, Good to Great & Built to Last are good reads on similar lines..

[attrader] 22/12/2017 14:29

Sounds interesting, which Book is it APAD?