Velocys Share Discussion Threads

[supernumerary] 25/8/2016 20:47

'Velocys are selling treasury shares to EI' - I don't think they're allowed to do that without shareholder approval. Do you have any evidence? Please don't say 'the price is not rising'.

[indiestu] 25/8/2016 20:19

Velocys are selling treasury shares to EI. That's why the price is not rising and no other significant is decreasing. Velocys are setting EI up for a friendly takeover as they need funding and customers. PI's double and triple shafted!

[supernumerary] 25/8/2016 19:00

Don't know whether RA bought last year, but if so, I'm sure he'd be very careful not to be tied to that price when contemplating any bid. You'd need to check his buying record to see when his 12 month grace period would get him into the current range...

[woolybanana] 25/8/2016 17:29

That should be "mite", guys. Oooops

[woolybanana] 25/8/2016 15:18

Do investors like Abramovich really buy shares to be friendly and supportive? His holding is now so large that he can control any attempt by another bidder to get a really competitive holding, or maybe to demand a seat on the board?

But perhaps some of you clever chaps can tell me whether such a large holding doesn't keep the shorters at bay?

I like this company and have just spent the last of the widower's might buying a (pitifully) few more shares, partly because there is no reason for Mr. A. not to make a bid once the technology is proven.

[fluky] 25/8/2016 13:39

Sheep-Herder: A reminder: Velocys is a technology and a catalyst provider not an chemical plant operator. This is stated in their company overview booklet: "Velocys GTL will work for anyone - Working flexibly and supporting all aspects of project development, we’re enabling more companies to profit from more resource opportunities." The higher value products will not contribute directly to the company's bottom line, but they make the investment in the technology more attractive for Velocys customers.

[sheep_herder] 25/8/2016 12:00

gac141, can you comment on why you were excited about the high value wax byproducts that can be produced by VLS? I posted a bit on the revenue model and to me these high value products don't have any effect on the VLS bottom line - aside maybe from some customer traction in making an investment in plant more attractive.

[gac141] 25/8/2016 10:50

The fact that the Times informant suggests that Ervington/ Abramovich has no intention to make a bid is confirmation that the interest in shares is both Friendly and Supportive. I take this a big signal going forward and expect the next few months to shape Velocys and position it in a much higher place. I am pretty excited to be honest.

[meijiman] 24/8/2016 17:08

Reading these posts you might form the view that this company had little value.
Got to assume that RA has an army of experts who think differently.
Reason for this divergent view is that the company has promised great things for years and delivered nothing. Allowed RL to raise on an inflated valuation.
Will the share price be higher or lower in a year-who knows...........

[haydock] 24/8/2016 16:49

16:37 - 24/08
n/a 146327 30.25p £44,263.92

Significant???

[fluky] 24/8/2016 15:49

I took the info from a 3 year old presentation. Since there were no sales, they started another approach. ENVIA is one of them: a JV with Waste Management, NRG Energy and Ventech. After they had to put in $9M earlier this year to keep the project going, they will have more recurring revenues from the eventual sale of product...next year. They also tried to develop project themselves such as Ashtabula. They had to put that on hold because of the financial implications. The major issue: there are no orders.

[sheep_herder] 24/8/2016 15:35

OK, found that presentation:

So this seems to me to be a bit of a failure of the business model - it's totally independent of the price of oil and whatever high value products are produced. This goes straight to the bottom line of the firm who owns the site and there's no carry through to VLS.

gac, why are you going on about the high value products like wax if there's no benefit to VLS? What am I missing?

[sheep_herder] 24/8/2016 15:18

What? Only the catalyst is recurring? Surely they have some small percentage of the plant output too?

[fluky] 24/8/2016 14:19

Velocys presented their revenue model at the Oilbarrel Conference in June 2013. Unfortunately, that presentation is no longer available at their website. Here are the main components:
- Upfront income: license fee, equipment (reactor + catalyst) & engineering;
- Recurring catalyst income.
Example: 2,500 bpd plant:
- Licence: $7.5M
- Equipment: $12.5M
- Engineering fees: at market rates
- Catalyst - initial charge, lasting 2 years: $8.5M
- Catalyst - recurring: $4.25M per annum
Total: $28.5M + engineering fees.
A back of the envelope calculation says that Velocys has to sell the equivalent of one 5000 bpd plant per year to break even. With only Red Rock Biofuels (1100 bpd) in the pipeline, the future is not looking bright.

[sheep_herder] 24/8/2016 12:25

Only just starting to look at this company. Can someone say how revenues are recognised for these joint ventures? Aside from the commissioning phase, what is the long term royalty/fee structure?

[gac141] 24/8/2016 10:45

Very interesting that they stopped at 29.5% they could have easily gone through the barrier. So why didn't they. My view is that this a still very friendly and Ervington are protecting their investment and ensuring someone like an Oil major doesn't try and buy out Velocys on the cheap just as we are about to turn a huge corner.

[the skipper] 23/8/2016 22:14

Looking at recent trading there seem to be signs of life here with the intraday spike on Friday and large after market buys reported both yesterday (177k) and today (245k plus a smaller one of 19k). Accumulation by stealth intended?

[gac141] 22/8/2016 11:58

Yes this is hugely significant...


Red Rock Biofuels plant update

In Lakeview, Red Rock Biofuels is a Colorado company constructing a $200 million biofuels refinery, funded with a $70 million federal Department of Defense grant and private investors.

A groundbreaking is set for Oct. 19.

Once operational, the facility will employ 25-30 full-time workers, with 55-60 indirect jobs created in the nearby Fremont-Winema National Forest; 250 jobs are estimated for construction.

Red Rock Biofuels intends to convert of wood biomass (along with juniper and other sources) into 14 million gallons per year of renewable jet fuel, diesel and naphtha fuels.

In order to construct the facility in Lakeview, the regional solutions group is coordinating the company’s state permits, including a Department of Environmental Quality air quality permit; Department of State Lands wetland permits and a land exchange agreement.

“The solutions group has been convening regular calls with the company, town, county and state agencies to ensure good coordination on the various state approvals,” Liebe told the group.

It includes rehabilitating a rail spur to the plant so the company can connect with railroad shipping.

“I’m glad to see the rail spur rehabilitation. We need more rail traffic,” said Commissioner David Lohman.

[musarddjm] 22/8/2016 10:45

Red Rock must have FID. Ground-breaking has been set for 19 October:http://www.heraldandnews.com/news/local_news/highway-group-hears-economic-update/article_558cd6fa-d4c9-558d-b1f6-b4c9408eff62.html

[meijiman] 22/8/2016 08:47

I have more or less written this off as an investment that will ever make money.
Seems to be a company where endless waffle about bright prospects counts as delivery.
Can't recall them ever confessing to mistakes but clearly there have been many.

[auphilman] 21/8/2016 22:38

Lots of opportunity out there thats for sure but TBH a disappointing failure here to deliver when there was so much potential. Only one project on the go. Not all the Cos fault I agree. The landmass aspect is persuasive but it has to have the right tech with the relevant political will to make it happen.

Its clear to me the the tech by Solena in the Greensky BA project didnt work. Doubts were raised by professional commentators outside of the project long before it hit the buffers. I didnt listen.

I guess we will never know why RL got the boot but it stinks. The board have been greedy with no incentive to earn their keep and that still leaves a sour taste.

I believe RA will get this tech and the patents but for how much we will find out.

[tongosti] 20/8/2016 21:58

Sitting this out for a long me while but will follow with interest next week on the back of Friday's trading volumes