Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[diesel] 22/12/2016 23:16

But we are still in a rising channel!

[a1ord53] 22/12/2016 22:29

Dont you think that we all been misled by analysts and management ?

[carpadium] 22/12/2016 20:32

Thanks for that Dontay, certainly explains the price action on the day.

The PR release lacked any real note of triumph, understandably as it turns out, but there were clearly quite a few holders who knew exactly what had happened and reacted by selling down.

[boadicea] 22/12/2016 19:40

Today's announcement re VR876 is of little financial consequence in itself, as explained below. However the acceptance of the novel delivery method has much wider application potential for VEC and possibly also for the company commissioned to produce the delivery hardware.

Quote - "This ... represents the first regulatory approval and progression to commercialisation of the FOX smart nebuliser as part of a referenced labelled product. Although the financial value for the Group from this programme will be limited, given the small patient population, this external platform validation coincides with sustained interest from multiple collaborations who are seeking to leverage the FOX's unique drug device technology. We look forward to announcing a number of these new partnerships in 2017."

The device -

[dontay] 22/12/2016 19:29

Numis reiterates buy with 258p target.Investec have also issued a note which explains the disappointment.Vectura (Vec.L, Buy, TP 220p) Vectura announced (yesterday) that partner Novartis has signed a licensing agreement with Sunovion Pharmaceuticals Inc for the US commercial rights to its 3 COPD treatments Utibron, Seebri, and Arcapta. Today we have found out that the related LABA/LAMA trial Novartis was running for Utibron against a competitor product did not meet its primary endpoint (ie the head to head study versus GSK's Anoro did not meet non-inferiority) and that Novartis has chosen to out-licence the products rather than launch them themselves. Our base case has c9p of value per share in for commercial launch of these products in the US (based on a 50% probability of launch). Now that the head to head study has read out negatively and Novartis has chosen to out licensed in the US rather than commercialise the products themselves, it is likely that some of that 9p upside is less likely. However given that we now know the products will launch in the US (albeit likely as a smaller commercial opportunity), we see it sensible to carry value in our base case. We await further detail from Sunovion on the launch plan, before adjusting the value in our base case.I'm surprised the failure of the trial wasn't referred to in yesterday RNS!

[alexchry] 22/12/2016 14:52

VR876-that's the third of the seven core news items for 2016, hope the rest follow soon. The news items themselves may not be significant but what is important is Vectura showing that their forecasts are sound even though some of the items are not under their control.

[pooroldboy55] 22/12/2016 10:07

Alex, agree dont see it the same way as Jdgen

[alexchry] 22/12/2016 09:34

Jdgen-I'm not sure whether farming out the products to Sunovion is a negative. Sunovion specialise in only two areas and inhalation is one of them. They are owned by Dainippon who are a very large Japanese drug company. It may be that they can market the products more successfully than Novartis.

[pooroldboy55] 22/12/2016 09:29

Yes not a happy bunny but SKP was the same and came good in the end, this is my only gamble share dont need to sell so will hang on in there.
cheers All

[richtea1701] 22/12/2016 09:12

Have a mince pie and glass of Sherry and take your time on this call jdgen.

[jdgen] 22/12/2016 08:47

Well well well......it looks like my long placed optimism is draining away. I don't see that the outlicense deal in USA can be construed as positive. I think that Novartis has given up on these products for the USA. They failed in previous trials to convince US regulatory to use same dose as Europe and the key USP of once daily also fell away. The have to pay milestones and royalties to Vectura and Sosei and now they are giving up lions share of selling margin to Sunovion. I assume their sales force has higher more profitable priorities.

I am now overweight and need to reassess.

[alexchry] 22/12/2016 07:55

I've just read again Cantor's analysis of Vectura after the results and they are far less bullish about Vectura's prospects than other analysts. Their recommendation is 'hold' with a target price of 160p which is in stark contrast to others. It illustrates just how hard it is to value drug companies like Vectura when so much depends upon the success of drug trials and subsequent approval. It all went belly-up for SKP when flutiform didn't get USA approval. Fortunately, Vectura have more irons in the fire but we do need some good news to get the share price moving, hopefully that will come in May.

[cumnor] 21/12/2016 21:20

SP also reflects markets take on the CEO and strategy communication. Clearly the company has several decent products so investors don't really think much of the CEO. Important in an industry like pharma so lets hope he ups his game. imo

[pooroldboy55] 21/12/2016 19:01

God help us if it does fail

[alexchry] 21/12/2016 18:40

Today's announcement covered the first two news items forecast by Vectura in late November. The third item is of particular interest and significance because it is the result of the COPD trial in China/Asia. The COPD trial in Europe wasn't a success, it will be interesting to see if this trial has a different result. In the weeks before the results of the Europe trial were released the share price fell, I wonder if the recent fall since the company results were announced is anticipating another failed COPD trial.

[dontay] 21/12/2016 18:38

I wouldn't think it's anything to do with Breezheyler as such. Surly the 90 strong country market that Breezhayler is already in is far bigger in total than the American market... maybe the stockmarket doesn't see this as being too much to get excited about? The GOLD and Crystal reports should eventually give a remarkably big boost to the bottom line from the rest of the world even without this American license. Hopefully the market will get around to realising the value of those two reports to VEC when we get the next trading update. I don't think it does yet! I saw this expected announcement as an underpinning... I DID think we would get some immediate rise out of it... but it should at least stop the rot!

[carpadium] 21/12/2016 17:58

fhmktg.. isn't it a case of EU = Ultibro Breezhaler, administered once a day and
US equivalent = Utibron Neohaler delivering a smaller dosage administered twice daily?

Same product but tweeked for FDA approval?

[fhmktg] 21/12/2016 17:19

Is the problem that Breezhaler isn't part of the deal and this is the GOLD product?

[best1467] 21/12/2016 17:08

Very strange reaction ,but as with all good investments the fundamentals look strong here and extremely good value at these levels.Anyone invested in sky will remember the ridiculously low value of that stock even after fluitform.But that came good in the end,value always wins out in the long run.Keep-the-Faith

[q2u] 21/12/2016 16:35

I'm not sure when it is going to reverse, but I'm sure it will and have bought back the ones I sold in November which makes me, once again, rather obese in VEC.

[carpadium] 21/12/2016 16:08

•President of Novartis Pharmaceuticals Fabrice Chouraqui says, "Given the evolving market dynamics, we believe these products will have the greatest impact in the U.S. when commercialized by a company with an established presence in the COPD field."

Weird market reaction, perhaps some mistakenly believe US income diverted from VEC but obviously not the case. With decent clarification, and it's far from a clear and precise press release, we should see at least today's lost ground recovered and the full benefits next year.

[cumnor] 21/12/2016 15:31

Did very well out of SKP from 50ps to £4. Buying this in the 130s (incl on dip) to keep and renew the interest, esp on Fluti and now today's good news. Solid investment imo esp with royalties from the likes of Glaxo Novartis and this foothold in the US. Mrkt cap not demanding for this type of company with fairly secure income stream and potential to do much better. Investors skittish and providing opportunities across many Pharmas. Donald Trump can do very little about surging demand for these products. imo

[dontay] 21/12/2016 15:22

I said I didn't think it would go up by much... but I certainty didn't think it would drop!