Vanco Share Discussion Threads

[taffee] 05/2/2008 08:25

big bears goldman still have a target of 142 on this after calculating the worst case scenario which is bullish with the share price at 96p!

people shorting at this level are playing a dangerous game imo

[masurenguy] 04/2/2008 21:10

Sorry to hear about your loss dogdogman BUT you are really asking for trouble just following a tipster rather than doing your own research. I have no axe to gring with TNT but he is here to earn a living like anybody else and he has a number or revenue streams in order to optimize this.

Like any tipster he announces his longs or shorts AFTER he has bought the shares or taken a long/short position himself. As he has a following, other punters then replicate his trade causing the price to move in his direction and he is immediately in profit. Nothing illegal or immoral about that process but it means that followers are always behind the curve and the price will have to move strongly in their direction before they make a profit.

My advice is do your own research - don't just blindly follow any tipster - otherwise you would be better off backing the favourite in the 3.30 at Newmarket or just buying lottery tickets.

[windjammer] 04/2/2008 20:12

dogdogman

NT didn`t post the short Friday it was today and i was wondering how he managed to get the average 129p did you see how fast it droped. very interesting how he now only posts 3 days not 5

[dogdogman] 04/2/2008 19:42

Appreciate your comments oohrogerpalmer. Yes, I agree that he's not always right - after all nobody is!! But he gets a lot more right than he does wrong. Also agree with the self fulfilling prophecy. He has so many followers (including myself) who sell/buy when he does. As he sees this as a short then chances are lots of people will do the same and the share price will head south. I was stupid enough to try to catch the falling knife and have been seriously hit for it. Even worse is I bought the stock (£10,000 worth) on a T+10 on Friday so I don't have time on my side for the recovery (if there is going to be one at all). I will have to close the deal latest next Wednesday and I don't want to end up losing even more cash! This is a genuine post (not a shorter) - if you look back I was gutted on Fri after buying in at 120p.

Cheers and good luck,

Dogdogman.

[oohrogerpalmer] 04/2/2008 19:32

Dogman -
He not always right you know.
He has some losses as well but he limits them by sticking to his stop-lose prices.
However , i fear that such is his sway with a lot of punters that the result is sometimes a self fulfilling prophesy.
He says it will fall , people sell and hey presto - it falls !!!!!!

[dogdogman] 04/2/2008 19:12

A quote from The Naked Trader, "It's sad to see Vanco (Van) struggling against a weight of debt. I made some quite nice sums out of this one in the past but it has to be a short-term short for the moment with £79m of debt which it forecast on Friday. I'm now short of £40 at an average 129p. Target 80p stop 140p."

I follow his advice quite seriously, he is an expert in the stock market. His reputation is second to none. I wish I had read this statement on Friday when I was stupid enough to buy in at 120p. I am now £2000 down on my "investment" and I'm gonna cut my losses tomorrow and run. At least if I can learn a valuable lesson from this then it will be some consolation.

Good luck to all whether short or long.

[02bursar] 04/2/2008 15:15

M594

"Profits will be eaten up by interest on debt payemnts."

Operating profit 2007 was £19m and covered net interest more than 4 times.

Weighted avg interest rate on financial liabilities was circa 7% fixed for a year and more [published accounts p71]

What is consensus operating profit 2008 ?

What is average debt for the year ?

Interest cover 2008 should be fairly predictable IMO.

[masurenguy] 04/2/2008 15:08

"jonwig - 4 Feb'08 - 14:58 - 596 of 596: Richard B: How will they reduce the debt? With enough cashflow, they won't need to - without enough, interest payments will eat into asset value, hence put the banking covenants at risk ... the ones they say are secure".

Hence the 80% fall in the share price over the past 9 months. Their business model is fine but the company is very undercapitalized !

[jonwig] 04/2/2008 14:58

Well, there were director buys between Sept and now, but not from our über-bull - there were plenty of opportunities for him to buy (just a few, note).
I'll eat my words if he does buy post-results.

Richard B: How will they reduce the debt?

With enough cashflow, they won't need to - without enough, interest payments will eat into asset value, hence put the banking covenants at risk ... the ones they say are secure.

[davius] 04/2/2008 14:52

richardbonny, that's NET DEBT. The company still has a positive asset value. A full update will be out during the week starting the 18th February. Anyone concerned might want to hang off buying until the position becomes clearer. I think they've already fallen beyond what is reasonable but each to their own opinion.

[wipo1] 04/2/2008 14:50

Profits will be eaten up by interest on debt payemnts.

[windjammer] 04/2/2008 14:42

well daniel stewart is rating this a buy target 245p so somebody has got their wires crossed. me i have added and thinking of of selling one of my underperformers to buy more
so what profits will they be anouncing say 20 mil will that make a differance to the share price . in these markets anybodys guess

[richardbonny] 04/2/2008 14:18

Just wondering whether this is a buy but debt looks too high to me. £79 million debt but profits only £14.9 million? How will they reduce the debt?

[davius] 04/2/2008 13:35

Well if I were a director I'd look to buy following a hefty fall, see MKS and SFR for two very recent examples.

Anyone that does a little research will be aware that Raffetto and Churchill have 500K and 600K of incentive shares respectively, and that Chairman Thomas Wolf bought 22797 shares at 144.273p on the 19th November.

The best time for directors to buy is very probably now, but if they are in a closed period they are unable to purchase.

[masurenguy] 04/2/2008 13:19

Does the close period extend all the way back to September 6th then ?

[davius] 04/2/2008 13:14

> jonwig - 4 Feb'08 - 12:34 - 586 of 589
>...why hasn't he bought any shares, then?

From the RNS:

"A full pre-close trading update will be issued in the week commencing 18 February 2008."

That would imply they remain in a closed period and therefore directors are not permitted to buy shares.

[masurenguy] 04/2/2008 12:46

post #587: LOL - very good point jonwig !

[02bursar] 04/2/2008 12:45

M583

"the company doesnt even know if the contracts are profitable"

What is the evidence for that?

Businesses cost projects for which they quote and then add a markup to arrive at the contract price. When a contract starts, I would expect the vendor to monitor progress against the original cost estimates as part of the contract costing process.

If there are different phases of a contract which bear different payment profiles, then the cash profile may well lag the P&L profile until the end of the contract when they inevitably synchronise.

Major global enterprises that undertake due diligence are not going to entrust their business critical networks to a company that can't support their services either functionally or financially. Despite the massive decline in the share price and the publicity that the weakness has attracted over the past 6 months, they continue to win contracts. A big chunk of that order book is cash generative IMO and I suspect the industry knows that.

I have no reason to change my opinion about the company. I have added since a year ago and I continue to hold.

All the best

[jonwig] 04/2/2008 12:34

Morten Singleton was appointed on 6 September and seems very bullish - why hasn't he bought any shares, then?
Just a few would do.

[chrisc168] 04/2/2008 12:28

Which moron said this will drop further ?

[taffee] 04/2/2008 11:42

this might help...e-mail this am...see no reason why this cannot be put here.
think the market has got vanco a bit wrong
I am happy to reply in writing, but also happy to have a conversation if you prefer...my direct dial number is below.

From a personal perspective I believe the fundamental value of this business is a matter of several multiples of where the market has us at the moment

The market is very short term, momentum and cash flow focussed at the moment. While we are making good use of our facilities we are not breaching the levels of available debt, nor the covenants over the facilities.

We are approaching the point where the business will mature to free cash flow neutrality and into positive territory, and we have a new FD who has come in and made a number of great improvements in the systems procedures and operations of the finance function and the business generally...though these will take a few months to come through in the numbers.

I remain excited by the opportunities for Vanco and convinced that this is the perfect business model for addressing the global data networking market. Vanco is a global leader in this field and should continue to build a sustainable and more profitable, cash generative business going forward.

Our biggest asset is not on the balance sheet (£0.5bn of order book of contracted cash in flows from blue chip customers, with no history of bad debt (c£400k in 19 years of operations).
In my opinion the market is too myopic for Vanco and the fundamental value will win through in the medium term.

If you have any further specific questions please don't hesitate to ask.



Kind regards,



Morten Singleton



Morten Singleton

Director of Corporate Communications

Vanco UK Limited, part of Vanco plc,

3 More London Riverside, 1st Floor, London SE1 2RE, UK

[molatovkid] 04/2/2008 11:23

if taffee is right and the company doesnt even know if the contracts are profitable, surely this is such a basic thing that the company is
un-investable!

[hubs] 03/2/2008 22:59

You would, wouldn't you? :-)

[windjammer] 03/2/2008 19:30

adding to what davius has already said. on the 7th november 2007 the co issued an interim statement saying net debt would be £70 mil . this sent the share price down to 150p there was then a small rise then a fall to 146p. followed by a rise to 180p
the market has become more cautiouse since then but i would anticipate a rise to 140p
i hope anyway as i have a large stake average 135
all the best to all holders for monday

[dogdogman] 03/2/2008 13:32

What do you think the share price should be taking into account Friday's statement and the current state of play with the company? If somebody could offer an share price valuation along with reasons behind it I would be grateful.