Van Dieman Mines Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 07/8/2007 08:03

- - - apart from that, a useful RNS to have. Where do all these bloody permits spring up from???

[jonwig] 07/8/2007 08:02

Now, someone tell me where I'm wrong.

Today's RNS:
expected to produce an estimated 700 tonnes per annum of tin....

June 2006 RNS:
...the Company's entire tin concentrate output of 1,350-1,500 tonnes contained tin per year...

July 2005 RNS:
This agreement provides for the smelting and purchase of the entire projected mine output of 1,800 to 2,000 tonnes per year of 75% tin concentrate, to yield approximately 1,350 to 1,500 tonnes per year of tin.

[papalpower] 04/8/2007 11:50

Metals - Copper comes under pressure after weak US labour market report

08/03/07 03:55 pm (GMT)


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Copper came under pressure after a weak US labour market report raised further questions about the health of the world's biggest economy.

The Labor Department said earlier that US unemployment rose to 4.6 pct in July from 4.5 pct in June - its highest level since January.

At the same time, the US economy added just 92,000 jobs in July, sharply below the 135,000 jobs economists had expected from the survey of employer payrolls.

Copper fell in response, taking other base metals down with it, as the labour report renewed fears that problems in the US housing and credit markets could damage the broader economy.

Also, with copper taking its lead in recent days from the equity markets, players bet that the metal could come under further pressure if the tentative recovery seen in US equities over the past two days stalls.

The US is the world's largest consumer of base metals after China. Recent weakness in the US housebuilding sector in particular has raised concerns that demand for metals may ease, potentially pushing prices lower.

At 3.10 pm, LME copper for three-month delivery was trading at 7,780 usd, down from 7,855 before the data was released. Copper closed at 7,875 usd a tonne yesterday.

Earlier this morning, the metal came under pressure after both the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange said that their copper stockpiles rose.

The LME posted a 2,225-tonne rise in its stockpiles of the metal, bringing its total inventories to 105,650 tonnes, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange said its copper inventories rose by 1.63 pct to 91,563 tonnes this week.

Offsetting this, however, was news that China's top nine copper smelters plan to jointly cut copper production by 10-15 pct in the second half of this year in an attempt to boost sagging domestic copper prices.

JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen said that while he remains friendly to copper prices in the short term, rising warehouse stocks are placing more and more downside risk on copper prices.

"Overall it does appear that the multi-month down trend in stock draws is coming to a close. However, exchange stocks remain at a low level, physical premia are robust, short-end spreads remain wide, and with the broader fundamental backdrop still somewhat supportive, the risks are still for a top-side test," he said.

Elsewhere, nickel fell to a fresh 9 month low of 28,700 usd a tonne, before recovering slightly to trade at 28,800 usd. The metal closed at 29,900 usd a tonne yesterday.

Analysts said nickel remains pressured by the ongoing increase in LME-monitored stockpiles, which rose to 15,138 tonnes today, and by faltering demand from stainless steel manufacturers.

The metal could trend even lower if fundamentals remain weak, with technical support unlikely to staunch losses until prices reach around 25,500 usd, analysts said.

"Most analysts conclude that the nickel price level where it's cheaper to use refined nickel over nickel pig iron falls somewhere between 25,000 usd and 27,000 usd," noted Alex Heath, head of base metals at RBC Capital Markets.

Among other metals, lead rose to 3,295 usd from 3,230 usd yesterday, supported by news that Exxaro's Rosh Pinah mine in Zambia is on strike, while Chinese smelters continue to operate below capacity.

In addition, LME data released earlier showed that stocks of the metal fell by 3.3 pct to 35,550 tonnes, extending the steep falls seen since the beginning of the month.

"Lower Chinese smelter production and reduced exports accordingly are robbing the LME of metal. The concentrate market is not as tight as the LME lead price would indicate but for now, lower LME stocks will continue to propel lead prices higher," said JP Morgan's Jansen.

Tin meanwhile rose to 16,200 usd a tonne against 16,100 usd, as traders overlooked another rise in LME stocks to focus on data showing further declines in exports from Indonesia.

Indonesian refined tin exports in July dropped nearly 80 pct to 2,274 tonnes from the Bangka-Belitung islands, trade ministry data revealed earlier today.

Elsewhere, zinc was down at 3,420 usd against 3,476 usd, while aluminium dipped to 2,675 usd against 2,720 usd.

[nickcduk] 03/8/2007 15:41

Pesky MM upto their old tricks again. They dropped the offer to scare a few holders out but it didn't really get a chance to work. Large trade went through at 10.5p which suggests the overhang from earlier this week might have gone. Online buy limit of 5k and sell limits of 75k says it all really. Don't think it will take much from here to get it back to recent highs.

[jonwig] 02/8/2007 09:22

Speculative activity behind much of recent tin price rise:

[freewonga] 31/7/2007 21:53

saw you mention it on TIM and had a ganders on Monday. The recent drop seemed well over done but I chickened out cus I didn't have time to do a lot of research and didn't want to but on a bit of a whim

[eggbird] 31/7/2007 21:29

Ahhhhhhhh I have found freewonga!!! Never expected to see you on here!! What made you interested in VDM???

[freewonga] 31/7/2007 21:27

gutted egg....on my buying spree yesterday I was going to buy these and got distracted and my quote expired. I was going to get another and had second thoughts and chickened out.......well done me!

[eggbird] 31/7/2007 21:22

I noticed woolies rise today, after their TS. I had a brief look at BLNX and agree it does look very interesting. Seems to me like it was floated at a bad time in the markets, and so has suffered.
Did you take a look at DAN?? Been some very strong buying recently, and the share price has done really well during the general blood bath of late. Results are due beginning of August, so could be tomorrow, or any day soon. All Indications are pointing to a very good set of results.

[oakville] 31/7/2007 21:12

No again took my eye off it and it has gone from 35p to around 43. Just noticed the Dow has crashed again at the end of the day down over 150 points in the last hour of trading, so maybe look at BLNX tomorrow, did you see my woolies up 10% today. Did you manage to have a look at BLNX ? looks interesting ....

[eggbird] 31/7/2007 20:48

LOL,

Looks like we have missed a good buy in op there! Oh well, I still have my original holding at a similar price to nigthepig's.
This could still be a very good price to buy in at, ahead of production starting.
Sometime's Im just not brave enough!!!!

Did you do anything about BLNX oaky??

[oakville] 31/7/2007 20:37

Will do...

[nigthepig] 31/7/2007 20:03

oakville - then you can tell me to buy them. lol
I guess we all missed the boat, this time.

[oakville] 31/7/2007 19:48

Eggbird, the next time i ring you on a sunday night and ask you for advice on a share that i have a hunch about, TELL ME TO BUY THEM. LOL.

[jonwig] 31/7/2007 18:28

KL - the terms of the contract for concentrate supply (July 2005):

The contract is based on the LME tin price at the time of delivery of
concentrate. Van Dieman will receive 80% of the value of the tin content
on delivery, and the remaining 20% (less smelting and refining charges) on
completion of treatment. At current tin prices, the total value of the
contract to Van Dieman is some US$60m-US$70m.



The tin price was some $7,500/t at that time!

Note that the first shipment was expected to be Q2 2006 - a full 18 months later, and how much shipped?

[katylied] 31/7/2007 17:13

No worries Nig... If the management have any sense
they will have already forward sold the first
6 months production...

...In LME, tin was higher on light technical buying Monday. Tin touched a record above $16,150 a ton as technical buying on low volume pushed prices up 5% from Friday...

Then again... wtfdik...

[nigthepig] 31/7/2007 17:04

Katy - I guess I just wasn't brave enough in the end.
Good luck with your increased holding.
Only got to get back to 18p and I will break even.
Hopefully my recent trades on MRP will more than compensate for this at the moment.

[katylied] 31/7/2007 16:32

Strong finish... So far, fortune has
favoured the brave... but tomorrow
is a brand new day...

[vishpatel] 31/7/2007 15:31

very strange trades, share price movement & volume.

still, my buy yesterday @ 9.5p looks good so far.