Van Dieman Mines Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 31/7/2007 12:23

No - I haven't seen that; thanks KL.

I managed to add 20,000 @10p earlier. Since the NMS is 1000 shares, it won't show for a while.
If the share price can move like this, the overhang might not be so serious.

[katylied] 31/7/2007 10:53

Is tin heading for a crisis (part 2)...



(sorry, if this has been posted before)

[jonwig] 31/7/2007 10:40

The share price will take care of itself.
meanwhile:

Analysts expect most base metals to be supported in the longer term by tight supplies and expectations of strong demand from China and other parts of the emerging world.

"Metals fundamentals remain very much in place, many markets remain very tight. There is scope for stabilisation, possibly a grind higher," Peter Dixon, analyst at Commerzbank said.

Tin hit a new record high of $16,100 a tonne and ended the official session at $16,050, up $675 or 4.4 percent from Friday.

Tin has gained more than 35 percent since the start of this year on concerns about output in Indonesia, the world's second largest producer after China.

"Supply bottlenecks have already lasted a year. The market closed with a deficit in 2006 and global demand exceeded supply in the first five months of this year too." Commerzbank said in a research note.

"This is firstly attributable to lower production in Indonesia ... Secondly, there is a shortage of concentrates."

[jonwig] 31/7/2007 08:54

nickcduk - thanks for that. Unusual for VDM to be thinking about their shareholders - roadshow, eh?

tyranosaurus - I know that blaming MMs makes us feel better, but it's misplaced - they are as much in the dark as the rest of us, and the wide spread is their protection in a thinly traded market.

KL - I'm still in holiday mode, obviously - the results were published on 29 June, in accordance with the rule. Doh...

[nigthepig] 31/7/2007 08:47

tyranosauras - I think they must have just read nickcduk's update and raised the price - lol.
I was quoted 9.46p earlier this morning, but now I'm being quoted 10p.

[papalpower] 31/7/2007 08:46

nick, thanks for the update.

[papalpower] 31/7/2007 08:46

tyran, I would strongly suggest an on line account, like Selftrade etc..

I find Selftrade able to get very good prices (eg quoted to buy yesterday at 9.5p when the mid price was 10p and offer 11p).

Check them out :

[nigthepig] 31/7/2007 08:44

nickcduk - thanks for the update.

[tyranosaurus] 31/7/2007 08:43

Those thieving MM`s quoted me a price of 10p a share for 10000 shares.
If they don`t change their attitude they will not be unloading any shares on me.
Rapidly losing interest in this one.

[nickcduk] 31/7/2007 08:36

Brief gist of it was that almost all approvals are in the bag. There is one left to go and that is on some admin persons desk waiting for signing. I got the impression thats a straightforward one and should be done and duster in a couple of weeks.

Before equipment can be shipped over they need to get the roads and bridge strengthened. Nothing too major again. Lots of the plant is already there and so production before year end is still firmly on target.

Equipment costs have provisos for rising steel costs etc so the capex will be higher than originally planned. I don't think its excessively different though.

They are looking to get some debt finance on board and I think that would be the preferred route rather than further equity. I think the broker move is related to that. Come next months agm they are likely to be doing roadshows to improve the company profile and hopefully some new broker research should be ready for then. I think thats when they will get their debt sorted out as well.

Tin hedging is something they are discussing with their partners in the Thai business. Apparently they are experts in the market and its something they are going to consider with the tin price being so high.

No idea who was behind the large line of stock dumped at 6p yesterday. Very surprised as everything seems to be coming to plan at the moment was his response.

All in it seems on track and on plan. The AGM and roadshows and broker note should be what drags VDM out of the mire and brings it further onto the radar screen. Ill be looking to add a few more around that time as well as long as everything is progressing to plan.

[katylied] 31/7/2007 08:34

True jonwig, but the RNS accounts were not called 'preliminary'.
[edit] 7 months for filling at Companies House is up today...

[jonwig] 31/7/2007 08:27

nickcduk - I look forward to your feedback.

[nickcduk] 31/7/2007 08:11

I had a chat with Clive this morning. When I get a chance later today ill post in more detail.

[katylied] 31/7/2007 08:07

Contrast VDM with TYM. TYM current MktCap = ~£6m. Sitting on a massive tantalum
deposit in Saudi Arabia. Share price actually going up at present. But...
In the last year, TYM has in fact lost its Saudi licence, been suspended
for 6months and had to re-apply for its licence. In any case, no production
was ever planned before 2010 and little cash on the balance-sheet, plus
large future dilution in favour of the Saudi partners...

VDM meanwhile, MktCap = ~£9m (at 10p) and share-price tumbling. Alluvial
tin (and extras) ready to be shipped. Smelter contract in place. Some
cash still on the balance-sheet and mine profitable at ~$7000/ton of
metal, where current mktprice is ~$14,000/ton...

Still, who knows. It is always what you don't
know that gets you. Or is it, what you don't
know that you know, or know what you
don't know (refer Donald Rumsfeld...)...

[edit] VDM MktCap now less than £8m...

[johndee] 30/7/2007 22:01

must be big sales that have not been recorded..................

[oakville] 30/7/2007 20:29

Egg, hi, no placed an order at 9p first thing this morning, and my broker laughed at me as the best you could get at the time was 11p. He rang me about 4pm and said i could have a million at 9.35 !! i have told him to by me 5555 shares under 9p... we will wait and see, did you see that 1.8 million sale at 6 pence. Still watching Blinx, Woolworths were as low as 22.75 to buy at one stage, and another i am watching is SPH, results out last week were out of this world and the shares plummeted.

[eggbird] 30/7/2007 19:34

Oakville,

Did you buy any in the end mate?? I have given it a lot of thought, but so far not added to my holding.....I just get too worried with a fall like this, and Im not brave enough to commit more funds to it. If it is a blip, and it recovers well, then I will have missed out on a bargain....It won't be the first time!!!

[tyranosaurus] 30/7/2007 18:10

Too many buyers willing to pay 9.5p to 10p.
MM`s must have gone home happy tonight having made 3.5p per share on almost 10% of the dumped shares.

[katylied] 30/7/2007 13:58

Mind, it is kinda odd that you can place 2m shares at 12.5p,
dump your old broker for a new one, and just a week later
only 6p gets paid for 1.8m shares... Perhaps pre vs. post
recent market crash? Someone distressed?...

[nickcduk] 30/7/2007 13:47

Those thieving MM took 9.5p off me for my top up this morning. A fat squeeze for whoever handled it. The ways its been handled does sum up the management we have. Instead of finding another buyer for the stake they have just let it hit the market and trash the price. I will step up my efforts to get in contact with the company later this week. The only problem is Ill probably have to get up during Aussie hours to do it. Will report back anything of note.

[oakville] 30/7/2007 13:44

Yes i am certain that an 'O ' trade of that size would have had to have been worked on for 2 or 3 days, which is why we have a 40% drop since friday morning.

[oakville] 30/7/2007 13:41

I wondered about the results as they were out in june/july last year.

[jonwig] 30/7/2007 13:41

That 1.8m could well be the reason for the drop in price.
Deals above a certain size can have reporting delays of more than one day - someone tell me the exact rule.
So the 1.8m might have been sold last Friday, and 6p was the best he could get.

Oakville - could be an RNS as it's about 2% (of 93.7m shares). Depends whether it's an existing substantial holder. I'll come back later with some holdings numbers.

Also unlikely to be the placee who took the shares at 12.5p.
It's beginning to look like a coincidence to me.

[tyranosaurus] 30/7/2007 13:36

1.8m is £1m so well over 3% of company.
RNS must follow soon.
Any idea who has sold?

Where are the final results ?

If the MM`s can buy at 6p and find mugs to sell to at 9.75p they will be making a fantastic return.

[oakville] 30/7/2007 13:32

Can anybody work out whether we need an RNS about the 1.8 million dumped ?