Van Dieman Mines Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 12/11/2007 11:00

Hi Guys,

As a recent joiner I've been reading the RNS, BB etc. It seems to me that considering all the steps necessary to get into production - prospecting, licensing, environmental surveying, permitting etc, etc you have to question whether the so-called 'delays' that have led to the share price fall were not in fact foreseeable. It seems to me that the original timetable was very optimistic to say the least. Any views?

Regards, Maddox

[katylied] 10/11/2007 10:42

Perfect timing would be right now. But (Edison) the chances of anything being actually sold (money in the bank) before Feb/Mar 2008 are receeding. Plant still hasn't been delivered. Nevertheless, Indonesia has their eye on ~$15,000 as a longer term stable price... which is... nice...

[jonwig] 10/11/2007 08:34

Thanks, Ste - last sentence intriguing!

KL - the story for tin does look like being one of under-supply for at least the next twelve months.
Who knows, maybe the VDM board are starting production with perfect timing!!

And when BLT have absorbed RIO, this will be their next target, mark my words.

[katylied] 10/11/2007 07:47

8/11/2007 - "...Tin was trading at 16,650 usd against 16,950 usd, after profit taking knocked the top off prices following yesterday's contract high of 17,225 usd. Possible limitations on both Chinese and Indonesian exports continue to support the market, with supply fears fueling yesterday's highs, according to analysts. Indonesia, the world's second biggest tin producer after China, is considering setting tin export quotas to stop tin prices falling, with the quota for 2008 in the range of 90,000-100,000 tons, an official of the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said yesterday. The government is studying its options and hopes to make a final decision on a tin export quota system before the year-end, the ministry's director for coal and mineral development, Mangantar Marpaung, told Thomson Financial...

[jonwig] 09/11/2007 19:02

Thanks PP ... the Edison differs in a number of ways from Fox-Davies, and I'm a bit surprised VDM felt the need to commission it.
23p would suit me fine.

[vanbrussel] 09/11/2007 15:50

Ay compadre: US$71.2m or 46.6US¢ or 23.3p per share (fully diluted)

and this at base tin-price of $8,500 ton
tin-price of $12,000 over period gives 56.9 US¢ = 27p
tin-price of $16,000 over period gives 68.8 US¢
add or distract 3.8 US¢ for every 10% unit cost (cost management)

As for the article in Proactiveinvestor; they mention CRU as metal analyst
CRU has a dedicated Tin-page on their site
As a teaser there is a free 10-page pdf (February 07) for download
Even dated it's worth a look, gives you a more in depth view of the tin-world

[papalpower] 09/11/2007 15:40

You can register for free, no problem.

[vanbrussel] 09/11/2007 15:38

Papal do you know what it says, i suppose i'am not allowed to subscribe:

Our research is distributed free to professional advisors such as institutional investors and private client brokers.

[papalpower] 09/11/2007 15:30

12 page research note out from Edison today :

[vanbrussel] 09/11/2007 15:20

Oh yes, running through my post:

Interactiveinvestor Magazine cover story =
AUSTRALASIA: 7 companies making a splash in Australsia and the SW Pacific

VanDieman story first in queue on page 14-15
the other are Mercator Gold, Medusa Mining, Greatland Gold, Thor Mining, Mindoro Resources, Recency Mines and Braemore Resources

Problem with Interactiveinvestors DD i suppose, or is it 7 AIM and 1 TSX for free

[vanbrussel] 09/11/2007 13:42

Not much happening, but BUY's had complete pay the ASK at 14.50
And SCAP upped the BID to 13.50 at 13:22
Good Dog

[jonwig] 09/11/2007 12:56

If you follow a few threads, KL (eg. the RBS one) you'll find as many expert views on that as there are posters - in fact, more views than posters.

One sector I'm happy not to understand!

[katylied] 09/11/2007 12:43

Just a couple of pennies more and... Well the
UK banks are looking attractive. Do they all
have a subprime problem, or is it more about
being tarred by the same brush?..

[nigthepig] 09/11/2007 12:26

vanbrussel - beef pie, I wouldn't mind one of them as well.
It is lunchtime after all.
Back to reality. Only another 5p on share price and I will be back in profit.
One day...........

[vanbrussel] 09/11/2007 12:05

Oh great, and can you buy me a beef pie at the same time
I miss these things since Marks & Spencer closed their store here in Antwerp

[jonwig] 09/11/2007 10:18

Thanks PP.
Sorry, VB, no info as I stopped subscribing last year.
Might put on my dirty mac and rustle through it in WHSmiths, though.

[vanbrussel] 09/11/2007 10:14

Oh great, hence the buying yesterday
Anybody some more info on the article?

[papalpower] 08/11/2007 23:48

Featured in a Shares Mag article as a buy I hear.....

[nigthepig] 08/11/2007 20:07

Quiet on here today considering our tick up.

[katylied] 07/11/2007 10:47

Great news on the tin-price jonwig. Highest since 1989 I hear.
But do you know anyone with any tin-concentrate to sell?...



This outfit seems to have exploration interests EL2+EL3
just to the east of the current VDM propects...

[jonwig] 07/11/2007 08:42

From yesterday's DJ Newswire e-mail:

LME base metals mostly lower in directionless trade on concerns of global economic slowdown after news Citigroup to write off $8 billion-$11 billion in loans; still, there are some signs metals returning to follow own fundamentals, said MF Global's Ed Meir; "At this point, we think metals are showing signs of going their separate ways, similar to what we saw earlier in the year. Clearly, copper and zinc are the weak links in the group, while aluminum and to a lesser extent, lead, are looking more positive." Copper down $35 to $7400, lead down $11 to $3699, zinc off $48 to $2720, aluminum down $12 to $2610, nickel off $550 to $31600, tin up $225 to $16725.

The tin price is currently near its high.
I'm inclined to agree, loose shares about - hardly surprising.

[daz] 26/10/2007 12:47

Think the shares may have come from the placing, maybe Fox Davies had a few spare.

[maddox] 26/10/2007 12:02

Daz,

Thanks very much for your thoughtful answers, very helpful.

59David, jonwig,

Might he acquired his stake in the recent placing - that was at 10p?

Regards, Maddox

[jonwig] 26/10/2007 07:30

David - there are always distressed holders around (especially these days), and the NMS for VDM is pretty low, so 10p would be the sort of level to expect.
There was a large dump at 6p (IIRC) in late July.