Value And Indexed Proper... Share Discussion Threads

[parsons] 21/10/2015 11:23

there must have been another Johnma some years ago !! Good luck here anyway.

[johnma] 21/10/2015 11:09

Never invested in Redde - only Tern and VIP

[parsons] 21/10/2015 09:30

Johnma are you still in REDDE ? This is looking good they are very tightly traded but should be increasing T/O hugely over the next 12 months or so. I think they are still under the radar for most investors !!

[battlebus2] 19/10/2015 21:23

Yes finding it hard to juggle time at the minute so bbus has fallen by the wayside, I'm certainly interested enough to look at this one again.

[cottoner] 19/10/2015 21:14

BB - Hi - I was actually thinking of posting your site to suggest you had a look at Vip , but you haven't been much 'at home' lately so I didn't bother!

As you can see I'm very optimistic about Vip - can't believe how much under the radar it is , especially since the half-year results and the amount the revenue increased in July and August.

Will be interested to see what your opinion is and whether I'm being overly optimistic!

Cheers.

[battlebus2] 19/10/2015 21:02

Hi cottoner, I'm looking in at this, held before, and wondering what will see the share price finally move higher this time?

[cottoner] 19/10/2015 20:52

From recent Investor's Champion report on Vipera.

- Broker estimates

House broker estimates are now for revenue of €7.0m
in the Financial Year 2015, jumping to €9.3m in FY16E.
The forecast pre-tax loss is €0.5m for 2015 moving to a
forecast pre-tax profit of €0.4m in 2016.


- Summary financials

Revenues for the 6 months to 3oth June 2015 were
marginally lower at €2.63M (2014: €2.9m) largely due
to project delays. Management commented that
revenues at the end of July 2015 show unaudited
revenues of €3.7m which is ahead of the equivalent
period last year. The loss for the period (excluding
currency translation impact) was €560k (2014: €320k).
At the end of August 2015 billed and committed 2015
revenues were in excess of the 2014 actual revenues
(2014: €5.9m), with four months of the financial year
still to go.


Thus the broker revenue estimates for 2015 should be smashed.

Revenue estimate for 2015 = €7.0m


Actual revenue at end of Aug 15 = €5.9m

which includes revenues of c €3.27 million in the first two months of H2

(With the increasingly fast rate of growth experienced by the Company at the beginning of the H2, the Board looks to the end of the year with optimism.)

Leaving the above statement aside and making the revenue for the last 4 months of 2015 equal to twice that of the the first 2 months of H2 will make revenues of 3.27x2 = €6.54m
for the final 4 months of 2015.

Even assuming this nil growth for the last 4 months would give
a revenue of 2015 = 5.9 + 6.54 = €12.44m.

Which would beat 2015 revenue estimate by 12.44 - 7 = €5.44m or by 77%

In fact I would expect the actual revenue for 2015 to comfortably beat the current 2016 revenue estimate of €9.3m.

If the above is anywhere near, then I am hoping that Vipers will have to issue a Trading Update to inform the market that they are likely to exceed the 2015 revenue estimate.

[cottoner] 19/10/2015 20:34

Thanks, Johnma

A direct link in case anyone else visits!



A short video where the CEO and Commercial Director answers various questions about Vipera.

Final question to CEO:

How does the future look?

Answer :

Vipera is a proven technology , it has a number of blue chip customers in different geographies. It is well funded and poised to strike in a sector that is literally about to explode.

[johnma] 19/10/2015 14:47

hxxp://brrmedia.co.uk/event/140500/marco-casartelli-ceo-and-simon-pearce-commercial-director

Excellent Video

[cottoner] 18/10/2015 06:34

Vipera: Poised To Strike
By Hybridan | 30/09/2015


What a difference a summer makes? At the end of August billed and committed revenues for Vipera were in excess of the total full year 2014 revenues (€5.92m). Sadly for Vipera their half year period ends two months earlier at the end June 2015. At that stage sales were just €2.63m vs €2.92 H1 2014, so the shares dropped on the headline news that sales were down. Had the market pundits got as far as line 5 of the Chairman’s statement, they would have found this out… but they did not. Small companies have lumpy revenues. It is just a fact, but also a huge opportunity. If anything the risk to the full year forecast is on the upside! • Fast growth Fin-Tech company • Growing recurring revenues & earnings’ visibility • Range of customers includes Tier 1 banks • Focussed and experienced management team • Fully funded to profitability • Focus on driving top-line – strong operational gearing Far from being disappointing, in fact the first six months has been a period of very decent progress for Vipera. In May, it announced the launch of a Mobile Card Control to Deutsche Bank in partnership with MasterCard. New sales operations have been created in France, Spain and the Nordics and the UK sales team has been boosted too. The sales cycle is typically 12 months so the benefits of that are still work in progress. A €3.5m fundraise in May will provide the necessary resources to capitalise on the increasing demand for Vipera’s services.


Outlook
In May, Vipera announced the launch of a Mobile Card Control service to a second
leading German Bank, Deutsche Bank. This service is provided in conjunction with
MasterCard, utilising their transaction management platform and providing the
banks’ credit card holders with a dynamic range of card monitoring, transaction and
management capabilities, direct on their smart phones. This new service now
represents a significant step forward in the respective bank’s ability to offer a further
range of functionalities to their combined c.4m credit card users in Germany.

More recently the Company announced that is has secured a repeat sale with the
Government Savings Bank of Thailand (GSB) through its partner TNFIS, part of the T.N.
Information Systems group. This deal is utilising Vipera’s digital financial services
platform MOTIF, under license.

This is Outlook In May, Vipera announced the launch of a Mobile Card Control service to a second leading German Bank, Deutsche Bank. This service is provided in conjunction with MasterCard, utilising their transaction management platform and providing the
banks’ credit card holders with a dynamic range of card monitoring, transaction and
management capabilities, direct on their smart phones. This new service now
represents a significant step forward in the respective bank’s ability to offer a further
range of functionalities to their combined c.4m credit card users in Germany.

More recently the Company announced that is has secured a repeat sale with the
Government Savings Bank of Thailand (GSB) through its partner TNFIS, part of the T.N.
Information Systems group. This deal is utilising Vipera’s digital financial services
platform MOTIF, under license. This is encouraging particularly because GSB
purchased a licence in September 2014 for 100,000 users, and the additional licence is
for a further 1 million users. The contracted revenue is a significant and welcome
contribution to the Company achieving its 2015 financial goals. GSB is using Vipera’s
technology in its newly launched mobile banking service, “MyMo by GSB” providing
powerful personal banking and financial management tools in the hands of GSB’s
customers via their smartphones.

In 2015, the Company increased its investment in sales and marketing resource
and this was one of the purposes of the capital raise earlier this year. During 2015 it
has added a Chief Marketing officer (who also brings a Scandinavian focus), a UK
focused salesman (who is already being productive), and two marketing/sales
support staff. Further planned hires include a salesman in Germany. To put this in context,
the total sales and marketing expenditure in 2015 will end up being around twice that of 2014.


Valuation

Vipera has yet to make a profit at any level. So applying multiples is somewhat
premature. However, sales growth has been strong in percentage terms (120% between
2011 and 2014) and it looks like thecompany may breakeven next year (Dec 2016).

Pre-tax and gross profits are currently pretty much the same thing owing to very little or
no ITDA. Obviously this gives excellent operational gearing going forward though
there may be some extra sales and marketing costs to drive the top line.

The Company is currently valued at around twice 2014 sales and 1.5x its 2015 forecast.
Given the pace of growth and the likelihood of profitability next year this seems modest
and could be significantly higher than that without raising any eyebrows. Looking at a
selection of smaller AIM listed FinTechaverage companies, also without earnings, shows an average multiple of around 10x sales.

Conclusion

It will take time for the ‘transactional’and Recurring revenues to build, but the type of contracts that Vipera are currently landing, gives comfort that the top line can grow not only fast but steadily and with increasing visibility.
Additional growth will come from new customers brought in through theexpanded sales team and through channel partners as well as organically through increasing take up from end users. The management are highly experienced and extremely focussed.

[cottoner] 17/10/2015 23:21

Recap of recent figures announced:

Revenue for H1 (end of June) - €2.63 million

From info given into today's statement.

Revenue for July 15 alone - ( €3.7 million - €2.63 million) = €1.07 million

Revenue for Aug 13 alone - ( €5.9 million - €3.7 million ) = €2.2 million +

Thus first 2 months of H2 , Revenue at least €3.27 million.

Revenue in first 2 months of H2 , at least 124% of H1.

'With the increasingly fast rate of growth experienced by the Company at the beginning of the H2, the Board looks to the end of the year with optimism'

Thus rate of increase in H2 expected to increase.

IMO the H2 revenue looks set to dwarf H1 revenue , and this before any further contracts are announced.

'Existing customers continue to engage the Company for further developments and enhancements to their service and we have created some exciting opportunities with new customers.'

'We have now developed a sales presence in France, Spain and the Nordics, and strengthened our UK presence. These are new territories where we are engaged in active negotiations for various services which include projects for products and services similar to those being supplied to the leading German Bank.'

[cottoner] 17/10/2015 23:17

Opportunities for investors in the FinTech sector
Posted 13 October 2015

Financial technology stocks – the shares of companies writing software for the providers of financial services – present a massive opportunity, although investors need to choose carefully between them.

That’s the view of William Lynne, director of corporate broking at Hybridan, talking to news.markets in this Big Picture video.

“Trillions of dollars change hands every day all around the world. There is a massive opportunity for smart software and service solutions [companies] to come in and just solve little problems, and also new problems with paying for things with mobile phones and paying for things in different formats,” he says.

While FinTech is a sector that is exciting some investors, Lynne warns that companies within it have performed very differently. Shares in Monitise, for example, have lost 90% of their value in the past year. By contrast, shares in GB Group are at the other end of the spectrum, having risen by 60% over the same period.

Looking ahead, Lynne has two companies on his radar. One is Mi-Pay Group; the other Vipera. “These are two of my favourites”, he says, adding that there are some great opportunities in the sector.





@4mins+ wrt Vipera 'doing much better than perhaps the market thinks'

[cottoner] 05/10/2015 09:23

A further 2 delayed buys gone thro.

[cottoner] 05/10/2015 09:03

Reminder of statement at half-year

'The first half of 2015 has been one of significant progress for the Company despite revenues in the period, at €2.63 million, being marginally lower than in the equivalent period last year (H1 2014 €2.90 million). We continue to progress quickly, however, and unaudited management accounts at the end of July 2015 show revenues of €3.7 million - which is ahead of the equivalent period last year. At the end of August 2015 billed and committed 2015 revenues were in excess of the 2014 full year revenues, with four months of the financial year still to go.'

Second half of 2015 going to be very good.

I'm hoping for a TU at some point with - expect to beat expectations.

[johnma] 05/10/2015 08:40

Nice to see some buying as the information digests into the market

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 15:58

As I predicted, some buying has come in now... but the MMS didn't get any shares this morning.. are they short of shares now?

[cyberbub] 22/9/2015 08:14

MMS dropped bid - I think it might be a tree shake to fill buying?

[cyberbub] 21/9/2015 12:03

Interesting... I can dummy-sell my full 350k shares in one go, at the full bid price... and higher for lower amounts... haven't been able to do that for a while... perhaps a bit of buying interest in the background?NAI

[cottoner] 16/9/2015 09:42

Person who bought yesterday for one - 52,380.

[cyberbub] 16/9/2015 08:43

I wonder who is still selling... sigh...

[little minx] 15/9/2015 17:13

I read it has a good future too with the new income

[cottoner] 15/9/2015 16:26

Nice delayed buy.

Am I reading more into the outlook for future revenue than I should be?

Looks a stonking buy to me, but with so little interest I keep wondering if it's just me? :-)

Edit - followed by another sell ! :-(