Urban Logistics Reit Share Discussion Threads

[belgraviaboy] 06/1/2020 07:14

As expected a fundraising on the way

[jombaston] 19/12/2019 08:28

well BBOX is at a discount to NAV while LMP and SGRO trade around 30% above NAV so why not? Its a chunky portfolio but I'm sure there are plenty out there with deep enough pockets or access to funding.

[spectoacc] 18/12/2019 16:28

SHED, WHR.. :)

Wonder if BBOX is vulnerable?

[jombaston] 18/12/2019 16:19

I think this might go to 150p rather quicker than I expected y'day. The HSTN bid suggests there is demand out there for industrial/logistics and buying a company is more tax-efficient than buying property direct.

With MKLW,HSTN...who next?

[jombaston] 17/12/2019 17:51

Spec,
N+1 Singer share your view with another 5% jump in NAV to 152.5p at March year-end forecast. I'm not sure what they base this on but SHED have had some favourable rent reviews and they are close to pre-letting the £20m developments that are due to complete Q2 2020. Or maybe they are expecting the recent acquisitions to be revalued.

LMP is a much bigger beast especially now they have absorbed Mucklow and become a FTSE 250 REIT with a near-£2bn market cap. And their management have an exceptional track record having made a great strategic move out of retail into logistics.

SHED will most likely issue more shares to reach a more optimal size (for better liquidity and lower cost ratios) so I think a share price at or slightly above NAV would be high enough in the near term. As they become larger and develop more of a track record maybe then they will become more comparable to the big boys.

I'd certainly look at buying more shares if they were to issue next year sometime especially if they had something attractive already lined up...but no issues below NAV please!

[spectoacc] 17/12/2019 06:55

NAV will have taken another leap come next report IMO.

Also worth looking at what London Metric trades at.

[leopoldalcox] 17/12/2019 01:49

Can't much more share price upside from here until the next update. Needs a NAV or divi increase I think for much of a change

[jombaston] 16/12/2019 16:31

There still seems to be a seller out there but they are confident enough to move the price up gradually. I think this will go above NAV and maybe even up to the 150p level. At some point they will issue more equity but probably/hopefully not a discount to NAV. I would be happy to buy more at that point as I'm only holding back due to the small size of the REIT.

[trekker60] 14/12/2019 08:54

Belgraviaboy ref your comment in October "Muted response so far - once it gets tipped it will fly":
It has taken a little while but a definite lift-off this month so good call! I suspect there may now be a pause around this level unless any news emerges. Anyone else have a view on that ?

[jombaston] 15/11/2019 13:42

Its always a worry when there is a big seller but its a good opportunity to pick up stock at a good discount to NAV with a well-covered and increasing dividend.

I'd like them to issue more stock just not at a discount.

Anyone who is interested in SHED should watch the PI World video, which even though it is not quite current, it gives a good explanation of their strategy and approach.

[cwa1] 15/11/2019 10:55

Took a few at 134.85p, probably got all I want now. Just need to sit back, relax and hope for the best from here on in :-)

[jombaston] 15/11/2019 09:23

It seems that it is possible to pick up a reasonable number of shares at 134.85p at the moment.

I bought a few yesterday after analysing the results, watching the video on PI World (from earlier this year) and reading the N+1 note put out yesterday (upgrades earnings by 3-5% and predicts 152.5p NAV by end-March).

I guess the only concern is these guys are keen to issue more equity. I'm hoping they wouldn't be issuing at the current discount though.

[cwa1] 14/11/2019 08:42

Yes, I was content with those results, it possibly deserves to be up with NAV IMO but, as you say, there's always the "risk" of equity raising round the next corner. Though if they continue their recent performance it is perhaps more of an opportunity than a risk! Time will tell...

[spectoacc] 14/11/2019 08:22

Completely missed it this morning, thanks @CWA1.

Highlights for me are the 3.8% LFL NAV increase since just March (ie 6 months to the reporting date), showing both SHED's superior management, and the very favourable sector. Also, during the period:


§ Eight logistics properties with asset management potential acquired for £15.2 million

§ Disposals totalled £18.4 million representing an average profit on cost of 57.4%

§ Portfolio fully occupied


Deserves to trade at the (growing) 145p NAV IMO, tho I don't doubt the "..Equity raising.." will happen if it does. Some bank debt feasible but LTV c.34%. Recycling seems to work best for them.

[cwa1] 14/11/2019 08:18

Interims issued this morning...



Most things seem to be heading in the right direction.

Interim dividend of 3.75 pence per share, up 25% on prior year

And some comment from the Chairman...

Nigel Rich, Chairman, commented:



"The strong results reflect our specialist focus which is underpinned by a shift in retailing to e-commerce.



"We maintain a healthy acquisition pipeline which we expect to fund through equity raising and bank debt when we have the opportunity to do so.



"Looking forward we remain confident that our urban logistics portfolio will continue to deliver attractive returns for shareholders

A few modest trades this morning, all "buys" in spite of how ADVFN categorises them as "sells" using their blunt reporting toll.

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 15:41

Lol even less concerned re Tunfnells now. They've just done another two sale-and-leasebacks, post "review" RNS, to two different buyers (not SHED). So whatever this review is going to bring about, it's not going to see CNCT exit any lease liabilities.


7 November 2019

Connect Group PLC

("Connect Group" or "the Company")

The Proposed Sale and Leaseback of a Second Tranche of Tuffnells Properties

Further to Connect Group's announcement on 23 September 2019 that its subsidiary, Tuffnells Parcels Express Limited ("Tuffnells"), had successfully exchanged contracts for the sale of six Tuffnells distribution depots as part of a proposed sale and leaseback transaction of selected Tuffnells freehold and long leasehold properties, Connect Group is pleased to announce that Tuffnells has now exchanged contracts for the disposal of a further two Tuffnells distribution depots to separate and independent purchasers as noted below (together, the "Tuffnells Sale Portfolio No. 2") for an aggregate sale consideration of GBP5,170,000 (plus VAT).

[spectoacc] 07/11/2019 10:07

SHED management have a long record of successfuly wealth-creation - happy to keep backing them here, original money raised at £1 and even after purchase and running costs and a healthy divi, NAV is up to £1.45. Don't doubt they'll have done their homework on Tufnells properties, as the lease guarantee suggests.

[belgraviaboy] 06/11/2019 12:56

Specto - it does seem a slightly odd move from CNCT, but I guess it swaps actual debt for a lease liability.

All things considered - I see no reason that this should be trading at an 8% discount at the moment. Especially compared to some of its peers.

[spectoacc] 06/11/2019 08:07

Thanks @Bb, I'd have had to look that up. Seems an odd move from CNCT, when they're liable for the rent regardless. Suspect SHED wouldn't have bought unless they were confident of reletting too, if worst came to worst.

Is far from all the Tufnells properties so I wonder if CNCT plan to slim down, and ditch those where they're not liable.

Edit - full text from CNCT:

"Tuffnells impacted by flow-through of legacy issues, compounded by lower volumes and especially challenging final quarter

-- Strategic review of Tuffnells to be conducted, encompassing further actions to drive recovery and assessing longer term role and prospects in the Group

-- As separately announced today, senior management changes and appointment of an Executive Chairman of Tuffnells to provide additional support and expertise during the Strategic Review of Tuffnells

-- Impairment of GBP45.5m in relation to goodwill, tangible and intangible assets of Tuffnells, resulting in a statutory loss before tax of GBP37.6m "


Not sure I'd be too worried if I was SHED, and any sale of Tufnells would have to involve them. Closing it down altogether would mean CNCT paying rent on empty buildings.

Last SHED NAV 145p, would take some justifying to dump at 131p, tho I accept the talking-up of Tufnells seemed odd when they did the deal originally (itself delayed).


Apologies - Edit #2 with the Tufnells details from SHED. "Early November", has it happened? Does it matter?

"The portfolio comprises 84,872 sq ft of warehousing with a low average site cover of approximately 18%. A mix of freehold and long leasehold properties, the depots are located in Coventry, Newport, Plymouth, Leighton Buzzard, Andover and Perth.

Completion is expected on or around 27 September 2019 for the freehold properties and by early November for the leasehold properties.

The depots will be leased back to a subsidiary of Connect Group plc, Tuffnells Parcels Express Limited ("Tuffnells"), for 20 years on a fixed rental uplift (minimum of 1.0% to a maximum of 4.0% per annum, cap and collar, linked to RPI). Connect Group plc will act as guarantor."

[belgraviaboy] 06/11/2019 07:06

From Connect's results this morning:

"Strategic review of Tuffnells to be conducted, encompassing further actions to drive recovery and assessing longer term role and prospects in the Group"

I hope those leases are secured at group level...

Still happy to hold.

[spectoacc] 17/10/2019 14:36

Unusually tight spread, and finding a penny each day atm.

[spectoacc] 14/10/2019 19:28

No question it deserves to trade a lot nearer to its (growing) NAV IMO.

But then I would say that :)

[belgraviaboy] 14/10/2019 17:50

Last Mail on Sunday tip saw it up 10% ish - with a REIT that is flying in my book

[trekker60] 14/10/2019 16:52

Not sure it's the sort of stock which will really 'fly' (although happy to be proved wrong!) but there may be a little nudge upwards. Still see it as primarily a good little income earner.

[belgraviaboy] 14/10/2019 16:16

Muted response so far - once it gets tipped it will fly