Urals Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gooner6] 21/5/2009 12:59

john - No offence taken.

[gooner6] 21/5/2009 12:58

mlight - In my opinion at this stage it is best to let the company continue the negotiations and inform the market when complete.

Again purely my opinion, but i believe we will have news soon.

[johnspain] 21/5/2009 12:58

mlight - the reason for my question above to gooner was because I thought his wording implied that he had talked to someone and now thought we should wait for an announcement.

gooner - to be clear there is absolutely no criticism or complaint aimed at you, or indeed anyone else who takes the time and trouble to call and update the bb.

Thanks all.

[the_isolator] 21/5/2009 12:54

Maybe now VS is no longer there theres no point in gooner phoning we might as well just wait and see what happens, im sure we will know before to long, and lets hope its all good

[cliffbarns2] 21/5/2009 12:49

nice to see a little positive movement,news is on its way perhaps ,although trading has ceased

[mlightfoot] 21/5/2009 12:46

Gooner - what was your rationale for deciding not to follow up with GK today?

[spp119] 21/5/2009 12:45

The last daily production proximate figure I have for Petrosakh/Articneft (early March)was ~2,700 bopd (no gas in figure given). Surely this must have now increased.

As for Dulisma, the current count is ~5,300 bbls per day (#23273).

So that makes for a minimum current production of 8,000bopd. Certainly not something to be overlooked.

[ucasavi] 21/5/2009 12:44

Gooner,

Let me add some Russian accent to your words;)

[johnspain] 21/5/2009 12:34

gooner - very specific phrases, intentional?
"I think at this stage it is best to let the company progress the discussions with Sberbank before any calls are made."

"Am awaiting the next update which will hopefully answer the majority of questions and indicate which direction the company is heading and the financing issue."

have you been told that an update on financing is due, or surmising as we surely need one?


thanks, John.

[gooner6] 21/5/2009 12:31

I think at this stage it is best to let the company progress the discussions with Sberbank before any calls are made.

Am awaiting the next update which will hopefully answer the majority of questions and indicate which direction the company is heading and the financing issue.

[ucasavi] 21/5/2009 12:28

seabass

I think they are separate issues, the fine was about some inadequate procedures employed right now. The recent press stories were about some production value to be achieved in 2011 as required by the license, and the officials say they do not see enough progress. I guess it is more like a warning, since it is not possible to prove now that something will not be achieved in 2 years. To me it shows though that the co was not meeting the milestones.

[itskashyap] 21/5/2009 12:24

Do we know if Gooner manage to speak to the company yet? (was planning to call, but wana check any updates from him before i speak to the company)

Thanks

[seabass] 21/5/2009 12:24

ucasavi - again was'nt there an RNS stating $100,000 fine, but that was for a minor infringement and not a milestone missed. Also I think SB are funding ongoing works on D&T as they agreed to pay all related debts to contractors as part of the delisting deal.

[seabass] 21/5/2009 12:21

scoraid- yes they had been neglected apart from petro. If you recall daily production was increased by some 500boepd there. Like any seller you can add value by "dressing up to sell", thats why iI believe latest divestiture was probably at the very bottom end, such as Chep.

[ucasavi] 21/5/2009 12:16

seabass

I was really talking about a different thing: even without debt, there are milestones to achieve to keep the license. I am not sure, but even before the crash the co was lagging behind with D&T development. Sberbank would surely check value for money: whether the co will cope with the task given full funding, especially if the co have not coped before. This is why the JV speculations. Unless the new BoD can convince Sberbank that they can do it on their own...

[seabass] 21/5/2009 12:16

spp - it has been stated before that all assets could be up for sale. my take is that the best would be saved till last as they are contributing to cash flow to help go towards development/securities against debt untill such time the 30,000boepd can be acheived at which point UEN would have been transformed into a major oil player, with revenues of approx $600m pa, which with the zero tax window would be more than ample to repay debts.

[scoraig] 21/5/2009 12:14

interesting discussion about A&P, did the company not state that as a result of D&T transfer in January that they where putting all efforts into A&P to make them 'attractive' to buyers and therefore, rather ironically, these non core assets might actually be in a good state and therefore worth keeping in a new restructured UEN? discussions on this BB in January noted that the non core assets had pretty much been left alone during 2008 with a view to sell, i.e no investment and minimum workforce. This could be a another bizzare value add as a result of the sberbank shenanigans and subsequent perceived u-turn

[seabass] 21/5/2009 12:11

ucasvi - agree with your view, because at the moment all is speculation. How can UEN be valued to invest long term with such huge debt to equity, (thats why I was happy to sell & delist, we knew where UEN was heading). However the u turn has changed all that and left a lot of uncertainties again, thus in my view may have been the reason for share price dropping. If you recall we where all hoping/expecting rns for signing off D&T which we believed have driven up the share price from 2-3p to about 13-14p. If D&T do come back then share price will now be driven from 8-9p to ??? 30-40p perhaps.

[gibso6767] 21/5/2009 12:08

sorry for o/t jfro did you get into ANR after my post last night its up a considerable % today ,what happens is every so often a big buyes invests the share price goes up ,then retraces but overall up a far % everytime

[spp119] 21/5/2009 12:07

Seabass,

Again I agree with you re Petrosakh (and even Articneft, if and when the great arctic Northern Route opens up for all year shipping).

But I am not exactly clear what the current UEN status/thinking is on these two "non-core" assets. Are they to be retained, or is the effort to sell them still in motion?
When I did the Reserves & Production calculations recently here, I kept them on. But I am really not sure whether this is to be case, if and when D&T return to the fold.

spp119

[ucasavi] 21/5/2009 12:03

My unpopular viewpoint is that low risk funds are not going to buy until the co shows it is progressing with development of their fields successfully. Since I presume it has not been the case leading to all the license issues. If the co carry on its business as before, then... I presume that Sberbank want to see such BoD and company structure that would be able to move things faster.

[seabass] 21/5/2009 12:03

Duss - it's not just UEN's fault for "this mess", the bank is mainly to blame for not extending $140m credit to fund thru to 2011 when up to 30,000boepd would be flowing thru the pipelines. This credit was being discussed over a year ago and SB have always stated they had no intention of defaulting UEN. At the moment UEN are not desperate bacause the co. can trade as a stand alone without D&T, so I guess that much bartering is taking place and must be sorted v soon or both will loose D&T's licence.

[pakomacha] 21/5/2009 12:02

Undoubtedly some funds will invest in due course, there are few shares around with such strong upsides. Will they risk it before an RNS though? Depends on the funds exposure and attitude to risk elsewhere I guess. Short term double or treble up, long term more.

[navyan] 21/5/2009 12:01

thanks Jonny, so where can you see the wave 5 can reach then ? its all depends on the detail of the RNS of course, but my bet will be around 34p maybe, which was the higher resistence on the weekly chart back in time( a bit optimistic in short term though)