Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[goodbloke1] 20/2/2018 17:52

Let's hope so

[soulsauce] 20/2/2018 17:50

Possibly 3 to 4p

[goodbloke1] 20/2/2018 17:35

What price do we think on a good deal any one? 4p?

[euclid5] 20/2/2018 16:20

If they are smart, they would try & farm into their Oulten prospect, gaining a appraisal well upside

[soulsauce] 20/2/2018 16:19

Very happy with performance today. Just a waiting game for big news.

[euclid5] 20/2/2018 16:09

seems the 900k this morning was a buy as bid was 1.85p & offer price was 1.95p

[argyle underclap] 19/2/2018 23:32

Re why Wick, Scotland

Just wondering whether Dr. Staley has drawn on his experience whilst attaining his Bsc in Geophysics at Edinurgh University.

Maybe a little 'hmmmm' moment way back then...

Just a thought.

[euclid5] 19/2/2018 22:17

Oulten prospect is an appraisal well - would be good if UPL farms into that prospect

[soulsauce] 19/2/2018 21:58

Amen to that caters.

Can I add echo and trp to the list.

[caters] 19/2/2018 21:18

Just to pick up on Spangle's line in his post #956 above about getting back to the excitement of losing money on oil shares, I have had quite a few ups and downs with oil shares over the years.

At the moment, there are a handful of oil shares that are really exciting in this benign period of oil prices .

I don't like to have too many shares in my portfolio, but this is one of them. My others are I3E, ECO and MATD.

What I will do different this time around is bank some profits and actually take the money out of the market in case I hand it all back again when the oil price turns south.

[cashandcard] 19/2/2018 19:43

Cheers buddy. I have RBD for Colter and Oulten exposure, but UPL does have the best exposure to Wick. Of course, there is always the possibility a deal in one of the other territories will close in due course.Cash

[soulsauce] 19/2/2018 19:35

Welcome cash.

[cashandcard] 19/2/2018 19:16

Got out of ZEN today, bought my first stake here which I will add to.Cash

[tyler90] 19/2/2018 16:49

A close at an ATH on good volume and >2p is a good start to this week.Still under the radar for even many retail investors never mind fund managers who will not even look at this at the moment.

[thejaba] 19/2/2018 16:48

Almost a multi millionaire then Tyler

[euclid5] 19/2/2018 16:24

Read a broker noted dated December 2017 - whereby Corallian gave a NPV of £210m for 23mmbls

quick maths gives this an NPV per Boe of £9.13 x 30 mmbls net to UPL 40% wi recoverable= £273m / 457m shares = 60p

"Corallian estimates 23 mmbbls of recoverable oil as a mean success cased with a probability of commercial success of 36%. Assuming a gross well cost of £5m for a well, Corallian has ascribed a net present value (NPV) of up to £210m to the Wick prospect"

[tyler90] 19/2/2018 16:19

TheJABA, so you have over 5m shares

[euclid5] 19/2/2018 15:56

Thank you again for your technical input on 3D seismic evaluation Spangle

Not sure where the 23mmbl came from, was it UPL in one of their Rns's, possibly

23mmbls x $11 / 1.40 = £180m / 457m shs = 39p

[euclid5] 19/2/2018 15:22

Spangle, O/T what are your brief views on i3E market cap now - awaiting $200m capex confirmation news, which will fund future appraisal well licences anticipaed on gaining.

As Liberator's capex is around £50m - surprised they need this much considering the cash flow from 1st oil production later this year

[euclid5] 19/2/2018 15:15

Thank you for your technical post Spangle.

Interesting to know they can increase/ decrease the OIP from 3D, but makes sense - quite a large increase from 2015 OIP figures.

A quick NPV calc based on $11 boe gives us

250,000,000
75,000,000
30,000,000 net to UPL - £235,714,286 = 51p Npv/share

[spangle93] 19/2/2018 14:33

@euclid - You'd probably already worked this out (especially with your username indicating more than a basic grasp of geometry!), but often with a wide range like the one quoted, it's because the structure as defined by seismic has fairly low relief (like an upturned saucer), so just adjusting the oil/water contact depth even by +/- 10m in the models makes a huge percent difference to oil in place.

I think this general suggestion would be even more likely here as the target formation is shallow, because the general uncertainty from the unconstrained seismic itself would be lower - images should be clearer and with better vertical resolution than say a reservoir at 4,000m

Edit - ref your last point - I agree, and I think Soulsauce said the same thing earlier, Seems like everyone wants more equity than they currently have in Wick, which is better than the alternative ;-)

[euclid5] 19/2/2018 14:13

Hi Spangle,

I think UPL have increased the P50 mean figure after interpreting the 3D seismic.

will try & do soe digging on this license to see what I find - but good to know Boil &
Corallian want to farm in on this

[tyler90] 19/2/2018 14:08

TheJABA, reckon it could take a breather around the 2.5p with no news before recommencing upwards to around 3.5p. All IMHO and this view goes out of the window if there is substantive news.