United Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[the manini] 24/2/2021 18:17

The historic success rate isn't given as a binary it's given as a percentage. If you have historically had an 80% chance of success that implies that both exploration and development wells have historically been very successful.The split may be slightly less for exploration wells compared to development wells but if overall it is 80% that is still a very high cos.Do either of you two 'gurus' know what the actual cos is for an exploration well on the Abu senan asset is?

[soulsauce] 24/2/2021 18:00

And there you have it a much better reply than mine. Thanks once again Spangle.

[spangle93] 24/2/2021 17:58

Manini - one last try...

No-one is doubting your observation from company presentations that historic success rate with wells on Abu Sennan is 80%

But "Chance of success" on any particular well is not the same as "historic success rate" - it might be higher or lower.

Just in a simple sense, CoS looks forward, while HSR looks backwards. CoS on any one well is a percentage, HSR on a well is a binary. If it's been fine for 4 days out of the last 5, does it mean that tomorrow will have an 80% chance of being fine. Certainly not in Scotland, anyway. ;-)

Moreover the term "reservoir" is not synonymous with "structure"

Folks who have replied today have just been trying to help, in the way that bulletin boards ought to work, where investors' knowledge is pooled for the good of all.

If you want to continue to put the pairs together and use them as the basis for your investments, that's entirely up to you, but probably best if you stop digging a hole here.


Edit - sorry Soulsauce - your post wasn't there when I started this reply

[soulsauce] 24/2/2021 17:57

Yes a 80% success rate of drilled wells that doesn't mean the current drill has an 80% CoS.
The two are very much different. Listen to Brian in the latest interview he clearly says the risk profile of this well, being an exploration well, is different.
Hit rate of drilled wells and chance of success of a new drill are two different things.

[the manini] 24/2/2021 17:38

Soulsauce I'm not conflating anything. All three presentations on the UOG website state a 80% historic success rate and those figures aren't BL's they are RKH's figures.

[parob] 24/2/2021 17:07

United Oil & Gas says 'ASH-3 well at the Abu Sennan project is 'the gift that keeps on giving'United Oil & Gas PLC's Brian Larkin (LON:UOG) talks through the latest results from the preliminary test results from the ASH-3 development well, at the Abu Sennan project, which beat expectations.hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7QqV1dZb8Y

[soulsauce] 24/2/2021 16:00

Manini I think you are conflating hit rate with COS.
But not going to argue semantics and as you say we have plenty of targets and I agree with 90005 we should bang on with an increased drill plan, rig dependent of course.

[croasdalelfc] 24/2/2021 15:56

Brent $66 Minus 60cents discount x 42.53% = $27.8 a barrel . 85% oil so ARP is about $25 a barrel3000 bopd x £25 gives a run rate of $27m a year .

[90005nelson] 24/2/2021 15:32

I think they should just keep drilling and take full advantage of this favourable viable conditions. Brent forecast $70 -$75 this year makes perfect opportunities for the O&G scene.

[croasdalelfc] 24/2/2021 15:17

The info I have is that ASD1X targets stacked ARC , ARE, ARG and Bahariya formations with mean recoverable volume 2.6mmbo.After ASH4 then next exploration prospect is :ASF with stacked ARC, ARG Bahariya and AEB targets with mean recoverable volume 7.37mmbo. This could be brought forward to late 2021

[the manini] 24/2/2021 14:54

Spangle 'discrete' means separate. ie. a different structure on another level. If C didn't come up dry then even better.Levi I believe the 80% cos refers to all wells drilled.If we don't hit we have many more targets to go after ;)

[valhalla3] 24/2/2021 14:52

Yeah thanks spangle I was just gonna say exactly that but went for the old speckled hen option.

[soulsauce] 24/2/2021 14:49

Thanks Spangle.

[spangle93] 24/2/2021 14:37

The Manini - Abu Roash is an interbedded formation of Upper Cretaceous age with a number of discrete reservoir intervals G (lowest) to A.
C and D are not separate structures, i.e. if you looked at a map, you wouldn't see C and D with different grid references. C overlies D.


TGG - you could also say the same for El Salmiyah- 5 drilled last year.

The Well was targeting previously undrained reservoirs of the El Salmiyah Field, with the primary focus being the Kharita Formation, and secondary objectives in the Abu Roash C and Abu Roash E. After logging, testing, and completion, the rig was released on 21 May 2020.

Net pay was encountered in all of the targeted intervals, totalling in excess of 120m for the Well and exceeding pre-drill expectations significantly. The main Kharita target interval was encountered some 16m shallow to prognosis, indicating a larger than expected undrained area updip of the existing wells in the field. This was further supported by the encouraging well-test results, which achieved flow rates of 4,100 bopd, with a further 18 mmscf/d gas (c. 8,700 boepd in total).

With further testing planned, it would be premature to draw any further conclusions on the oil volumes associated with the Well.


The release implies that both Abu Roach intervals contains net pay. They are shallower than the Kharita, so would have been tested after. Despite the "with further testing planned" caveat the rig was already released. So one might conclude that in this location, it was more to appraise Abu Roach than to produce from it - they'd get logs over the secondary target. However because the Kharita delivered they took the low hanginf fruit, because it would be harder to test Abu Roash and then go back to produce Kharita.

[thegreatgeraldo] 24/2/2021 14:30

Yes, a commitment well......not a throwaway though..

..."targeting the Abu Roash reservoirs in the 4-way dip-closed Prospect D structure in the north of the Abu Sennan licence, close to the producing Al Jahraa field. This is a low risk well, located close to existing infrastructure, capable of being brought into production quickly.

[croasdalelfc] 24/2/2021 14:24

ASD-1X is a commitment well . Part of the license agreement. It is slightly East of Al Jahraa were there are 6 producing wells. .It is exploration so more risk but they wouldn't drill without being confident .It's the last of the committed exploration Wells and I would expect them to concentrate on development with a ratio of 3:1 development:exploratio. Next is ASH 4 which is development and likely to have similar results as ASh 2 and 3 .

[soulsauce] 24/2/2021 14:15

I am not sure it works like that Manini. Maybe someone can clarify that.

And isn't 80% cos for the appraisal wells not exploration wells?

[thegreatgeraldo] 24/2/2021 14:12

The Manini,

According to the link I provided, the C sand wasn't dry....as RKH went quiet, assume it wasn't commercial at that location. Will have provided a lot of data though...assume they wouldn't go back if they weren't confident

[the manini] 24/2/2021 14:06

thegreatgeraldo that RKH drill was in the prospect 'C' structure we're drilling the prospect 'D' structure. From the latest flow rates rns;"The ED-50 rig will now move to the north of the Licence, close to the producing Al Jahraa field to commence the drilling of the ASD-1X exploration well. This well is targeting the Abu Roash reservoirs in the Prospect D structure and, if successful, can quickly be brought into production."Given an 80% COS the fact that RKH came up dry with C, increases our COS with D

[parob] 24/2/2021 13:55

Fresh wave of buyers now the stale bulls are out. We could see a few days of decent gains IMO.

[thegreatgeraldo] 24/2/2021 12:36

Exploration well ASZ-1X located on Prospect S was spudded using the rig EDC-53 on 8 November 2018, and will be the first of two commitment wells to be drilled in the first phase of the new concession. The primary objective of well ASZ-1X is the Abu Roash-C reservoir sand that produces in the neighbouring Al Jahraa field. The deeper Abu Roash reservoirs present secondary targets. The well is due to take around 50 days to drill.


......mentioned as a discovery by RKH in Jan '18, but the trail goes a bit cold after that. Maybe testing didn't go as hoped?

[mustbefunny] 24/2/2021 12:24

Plenty more upside from here

[90005nelson] 24/2/2021 12:15

With our next drill ASD-1X targeting the Abu Roash "D" reservoirs close to Al jahraa field. This RNS from RKH shows oil has already been identified there from previous drills.https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/LSE20181112070005_13862528/Egypt-Update

[the chairman elect] 24/2/2021 11:20

Yes AND hopefully take the miserable git with the clearance of any remaining stale bulls!

[parob] 24/2/2021 10:59

Excellent volume today which should help to clear out any remaining stale bulls who are selling out for a profit having been stuck in for so long.