Unite Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 05/5/2021 09:53

Hiya speedsgh,

Yes, great announcement and good to see the performance fees quantified at 'approximately £20-30 million (5-8 pence per share), to be recognised in 2021' and paid in cash 4Q.

The other welcome comment is the intention of CIG/UTG to look for further acquisitions. This is built upon their successful acquisition of Aston Uni's campus accommodation. This gives he green light and financial fire power for Unite to source similar deals. Unite is uniquely well placed through its capital structure in comparison with ESP and DIGS etc. Their exemplary management of the Covid-19 challenge has enhanced their already excellent reputation and makes them the default choice for University deals.

Good luck speedsgh with your scaling-in - timing the market is always a challenge.

Regards Maddox

[speedsgh] 04/5/2021 19:58

Absolutely cracking announcement this morning imo re 10yr extension to the JV with GIC. Well-deserved recognition of the impressive performance of Unite as property/asset manager since the JV's inception in 2012.

Still looking to build on my starter position here so I am rather selfishly hoping for some general market volatility in the coming months as it feels like this is running away from me at the moment. Of course any talk of a new wave of Covid and/or reintroduction of local/regional/national lockdown measures is likely to impact the whole market but tbh I would rather I miss the boat here than wish that on all of us. I perhaps should have been a bit bolder when I first entered. GLTA

[madengland_] 04/5/2021 09:33

A usual trading pattern when we get good news. Start up, sell off, rise through to close. Should break 1200 soon but long term is a good deal higher I feel

[madengland_] 14/4/2021 11:29

Agreed Maddox, all looking positive. It's a lovely SIPP and ISA stock to sit on for a few years

[maddox] 12/4/2021 07:08

Positive update this morning, and optimistic outlook:

'2021/22 reservations

We have seen a strong sales performance since our preliminary results on 16 March, reflecting increased confidence from both UK and international students as lockdown restrictions begin to ease. Across the Group's total property portfolio, 73% of rooms are now reserved for the 2021/22 academic year with the deficit in sales to prior year continuing to narrow over recent weeks (2020/21: 80%).'

This is then reflected in the portfolio valuations. As at 31 Mar 2021 the two funds are:

USAF – Unite own 22% - like-for-like asset value increased 0.5% during the quarter; and

LSAV – Unite own 50% - like-for-like asset value increased 1.3% during the quarter.

Overall UTG are forecasting a "2-3% rental growth in 2021/22."

So looks like we're going in the right direction and back to normality.

[madengland_] 08/4/2021 15:34

Looks like the CFO has filled his ISA

[madengland_] 29/3/2021 09:41

Thanks Maddox, looks like the crowd are waking up to the value.I'd appreciate another little drop so I can fill the isa after 6/4.

[maddox] 27/3/2021 12:43

Knight Frank says that rising demand for university places points to a positive outlook for UK PBSA. As reported by PropertyIndustryEye:

'Analysing UCAS’s latest data on student numbers, global property consultancy Knight Frank said that it “makes for positive reading, despite the pandemic”.

More than 728,000 students applied to start a full-time undergraduate course at UK universities in the 2020/21 academic year – nearly 22,500 more applicants than the previous year and only the second year-on-year increase in applications in the last five years.

There was also an increase in the number of applications from outside the UK, which climbed 7.5% compared to 2019 levels.

Higher application volumes supported a rise in total acceptances, with the number of students enrolling on a university course up by 5.4%.

Matthew Bowen, Head of Residential Investment Research at Knight Frank, said:

“The data suggests that initial fears of a sharp decline in enrolment – particularly from overseas as a result of campus closures – have not transpired. It also supports the principle that student numbers typically increase in times of economic downturn as some applicants take the opportunity to retrain or upskill.”'

'Continuing a trend which has been evident since 2012, Knight Frank said that enrolment across higher tariff universities – which typically demand higher exam grades for entry – was up 13.2%. By comparison, medium and lower tariff universities saw acceptances increase by 3.7% and 1.1% respectively.'

'Looking beyond the UK, applications from outside the EU increased by 17.1%, driven by strong demand from the usual recruitment markets such as China (+21.5%) and India (+25.5%). Applications from within the EU were down by almost 40%, a factor that is likely a result of changes to fees in the wake of Brexit.

Bowen concluded: “Overall, this has resulted in a slight downturn in international student applications at this stage, though overall growth in UK-domiciled applications and prospective students from outside the EU gives much reason to be optimistic in the medium term.”'



The full report can be downloaded here:

[maddox] 27/3/2021 12:35

Bloomberg reports that 'Private equity firms are ramping up their investments in the U.K.’s student accommodation market, pumping hundreds of millions of pounds into a resilient sector with an eye on high rental returns in post-Brexit, post-Covid Britain.'

'More than one-third of deals for student property in 2021 so far have been financed by private equity, compared to about 15% in total between 2016 and 2019, according to data compiled by real estate advisers Jones Lang Lasalle Inc.'

[madengland_] 25/3/2021 20:22

Thanks for posting

[speedsgh] 25/3/2021 12:20

www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations-/broker-tips--7851254.html

Analysts at Berenberg upgraded student accommodation provider Unite Group from 'hold' to 'buy' on Wednesday, stating increased visibility had provided the stock with re-rating potential.

Berenberg said as the UK real estate sector normalises, Unite, the largest owner and operator of purpose-built student accommodation in the UK, remained "well-placed", with the analysts expecting to see a normalisation of operations, combined with long-duration demand tailwinds, development completions and operating margin improvements to justify a re-rating of the shares, which currently trade at roughly 25% below pre-Covid-19-pandemic levels.

The German bank said Unite had outperformed expectations in 2020, despite significant rent concessions being made, and highlighted that following recent management commentary and comments from Boris Johnson, which suggested that any steps taken to ease lockdown measures were irreversible, operational visibility across the student accommodation subsector had improved "materially".

"When this is taken alongside demographic, societal and supply tailwinds, we expect occupational demand to increase materially ahead of the next academic year and remain resilient over our forecast horizon," said the analysts, who rolled forward their model and increased their price target on the stock from 1,000.0p to 1,250p.

"Combined with Unite’s best-in-class portfolio, we expect these tailwinds to result in resilient, secure, inflation-plus EPS growth and a re-rating of the shares, which remain circa 25% below February 2020 peaks."

[speedsgh] 22/3/2021 18:37

Planning approval received for Derby Road, Nottingham development which will provide 700 beds, an increase of 13% from the 620 beds originally planned...

[maddox] 22/3/2021 15:06

Investors Chronicle 17 Mar 2021 has a positive write-up and buy recommendation on UTG but no share price target. They make a favourable comparison with Empiric (ESP) based on UTG 21/22 advance bookings at 66% to ESP's 20%. With this reflecting UTG's less reliance on overseas students.

[maddox] 22/3/2021 14:55

I can't remember the last Broker Research I've seen on UTG.

The Brokers Analysts are apparently undecided on UTG:

Strong Buy........1
Buy...............1
Neutral...........7
Sell..............0
Strong Sell.......1
.................10
Source: Share.com

I've no idea as to the timeliness of the data here.

Regards, Maddox

[madengland_] 21/3/2021 20:36

I've not seen anything as yet although must confess I don't pay too much attention to them. Long term this feels a great buy

[speedsgh] 17/3/2021 10:19

Does anyone have any post-results broker comments/notes/forecasts for 2021 that they might be able to share? TIA

[maddox] 16/3/2021 08:36

Yes, highly positive outlook and confident tone - justifiably, given their highly competent handling of the Covid challenge. Thankfully, they reflect the key points I made in my StockSlam pitch:

>> Students are as keen as ever to have the experience of University life;

>> Strong International demand is set to return - pleasingly, with India featuring; and

>> There is an increased recognition by Universities that they could benefit from partnerships.

Whilst, it's going to take 2021 to recover lost ground, the future looks better and Unite even better positioned for the post-Covid market. This last point, very much plays to Unite's strengths. Unite emerges from Covid with a substantially enhanced reputation - demonstrating commercial acumen, organisational excellence and social responsibility.

Let's look at London - a prime destination for students, as an example. The new London Development Plan will require future PBSA to be built with the sponsorship of a London University and have 30% affordable accommodation. Unite has an evident record of successful University partnerships (covering 60% of their accommodation) and is 'affordably' positioned on price to compete with HMOs (often very shabby private student rental flats and houses). Unite is thus ideally positioned for the London market ahead of other more premium-priced operators.

As centrally located office and retail development suffers - premium development land will be more attractively priced, and building costs suppressed. There is thus a highly attractive opportunity to build top-quality, affordable and profitable additions to Unite's portfolio in London.

Regards, Maddox

[madengland_] 16/3/2021 08:12

Well Maddox today's results and stated divi intent should go down well.

[maddox] 15/3/2021 13:07

Hi me,

Couldn't agree with you more. The prospects and market dynamics are not changing as rapidly or as dramatically as the share price might suggest. However, I wonder whether UTG's resilience might actually be counting against it - there are far larger yields available elsewhere if that's what FIs are seeking.

If you are brave an optimistic on a retail recovery you could see New River Reit (NRR) on 9% plus as attractive. Similarly, British Land (BLND) is offering 4% if you think we're not going to be working from home on a permanent basis.

UTG is a bit of a hybrid offering resilience, growth and income might not be appealing atm.

Any other thoughts?

[madengland_] 15/3/2021 11:18

Very surprised how volatile this share is on a day to day

[speedsgh] 07/3/2021 20:19

QD view: student digs top of the class for COVID rebound? -

[maddox] 05/3/2021 19:39

Thanks you're very welcome, great to have good company on here.

Yes, it's always educational to see how a management team reacts to an unforeseen crisis. It's an acid test moment for me. If they are able to quickly assess the problem, take appropriate decisions and actions then it really builds confidence.

It didn't take Unite' Team long to get ahead of the situation, take decisive measures and implement them. Clearly an uncomfortable situation but they've come through it with credit and an enhanced reputation.

They also took advantage of Covid to secure three more prime development sites at lower prices. If the effect of the pandemic is to reduce the demand for prime city center office development then their prospects are further enhanced.

[madengland_] 05/3/2021 08:06

95% collection, and a reduction in hit to EPS. Pleasing.UTG have acted well throughout the pandemic

[madengland_] 26/2/2021 12:31

Thanks Maddox

[speedsgh] 26/2/2021 11:14

Cracking write-up, Maddox. Thank you for sharing.