Unite Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 02/12/2020 07:04

Agreed, also the demographic dip in 17 and 18 year olds is unwinding and an ever higher proportion want to go to university. The Govt has at long last recognised the 'export' value of International Students to the UK. It no longer sees them as illegal immigrants. So hopefully together with Universities desperate to repair their finances we'll see a strong recruitment effort.

Covid has been incredibly badly handled but the end is in sight. I still have some concerns about the impending mass testing of students. I expect Covid to have burnt itself out with the unfortunate students locked up in their petri dish accommodation. However, the PCR test has an estimated false positive rate of between 0.8 and 4.0%. It us susceptible to pick-up previously infected students as currently infectious. So this false positive rate might be considerably higher when testing the student population.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

This has the potential to create another completely false panic in the media, and unwarreneted locking up of students over Xmas.

[lord mandelbaum] 01/12/2020 16:38

Thanks Maddox, your analysis helped convince me UTG is a buy.. and the last few days' share price action is pleasing; it's always nice when it does what you expect it to.

Aside from the risk of a general market wobble, I really don't see much risk. The negatives of this academic year are pretty much priced in, the balance sheet is good and with the economy being weaker for the next few years I can well imagine more students wanting to avoid the workplace and enter University while conditions improve.

[maddox] 30/11/2020 16:12

Hi Guys,

Welcome aboard, great to have some more company.

I find UTG's volatility frankly baffling tbh.

One of its primary attractions for me is the stability of its market (also it's under-supplied), its uncorrelated with the general economy and the forward visibility of growth (3 year pipeline of developments) and it's asset backed. Clearly as FIs buy-in, sell-out or adjust their weighting the share price will respond but the way it responds to news of a vaccine, Brexit etc., is pretty unfathomable.

I thus fully expect UTG to shoot-up should a deal be struck with the EU.

Regards Maddox

[madengland_] 29/11/2020 15:39

Good luck, I'm very likely to follow which probably means a 5% jump tomorrow ahead of me getting in!

[lord mandelbaum] 29/11/2020 00:36

Agree and bought in on Friday after a bit more DD and chart ogling, especialy the chart ogling. There may be sprighlier opportunities on the risk/reward continuum but this is such a safe bet in my humble.

[madengland_] 28/11/2020 11:57

A good yielding diversified stock for a long term pension for sure. Some decent pickings out there, this is def one of them but when.....

[madengland_] 28/11/2020 11:55

I too find myself at the same place as you on this share. I was quite pleased to see it pulling back after the initial vaccine spike, but of course as you have, I found myself wondering why.I'd imagine there is a risk of students not returning Q1 next year? UTG were confident of not breaking covenants back a couple months back, I think 62% occupancy was stated as a problem level. Is this a concern?

[lord mandelbaum] 27/11/2020 10:57

Been monitoring UTG since last year when I didn't buy in as the premium was too much and I've read the commentary on this board. There's much to like about the geographic spread of the portfolio and I only see minor issues. (e.g. decrease in EU students and potential decrease in city centre property values.)


Now it looks like a screaming buy for the long term portfolio.... but what's with the current share price slide - is this just a technical chart thing?

[maddox] 12/11/2020 00:49

Ignoring the vaccine news - the Zoe Covid Symptoms Tracker App from Kings College with 4.38m reportees is showing that the second wave has peaked in most parts of the country. Covid has I suspect run its course in the student population at least. This should have an earlier effect than the Vaccine - which will not be intended for the majority of students (without underlying vulnerabilities).

>> Oxman, your post 686 was very prescient!

[its the oxman] 11/11/2020 08:19

Took a few profits 1100p

[maddox] 08/10/2020 22:27

Yep, on a like for like basis their income is down 12% which is due primarily to the rent foregone as a result of Covid-19. The 88% stacks up against 98% let in the prior year so a 10.2% decline. There will also be additional costs involved in the Covid-Safe regime.

So far it's hardly disastrous - accepting the fact that we're not yet out of the woods. I'm ignoring the property write-down which is a direct consequence of the loss of revenue and is a non-cash item - that will bounce-back as soon as were back to normal.

I still think it would be better to treat each University like one big bubble - isolate it from the surrounding town or City and focus on protecting the staff and ancillary workers; and any vulnerable students. Northumbria Uni have reported c. 770 students have tested positive with only 78 having symptoms. It will have run its course in a couple of weeks and then we'll be off the front pages.

[its the oxman] 08/10/2020 08:48

88% let with scope to nudge up from further sales. In line but no better. Had hoped for more but decent enough, will take longer for things to normalise and anybody's guess when vaccine news will break, though when it does could see a big rebound here.

[thruxie] 27/9/2020 16:58

I'm concerned they can actually achieve 90%+ occupancy in the current climate. I'm still holding but half expecting more buying opportunities soon.

[bothdavis] 27/9/2020 14:28

Wonder how these will react on Monday after all the Uni chat on TV and in the papers regarding COVID flair ups!?

Tricky investing times in this stock at the moment and for a while I should think?

[maddox] 19/9/2020 09:46

University Clearing has all but finished and course places allocated - so we can expect to have an update from Unite soon. Unite have been seeking to encourage UK students away from their often shoddy HMOs (homes of multiple occupation) to replace the predicted drop in International Students. So we will learn whether this has been a successful endeavour and they have achieved their targeted 90% occupation.

The update should arrive before the end of September - so any time now.

[maddox] 08/9/2020 11:05

Hi Oxman,

You're not alone in your thinking:

'Exam U-turn provides opportunity for student sector growth'
'Student accommodation 'most resilient asset class'



regards, Maddox

[its the oxman] 28/8/2020 17:50

Target of 90% occupancy looks very likely to be beaten. 98% last year and demand could be just as high now this year. Hope to see the 90% upgraded and an easy beat could give the shares and sector a nice lift.

[bothdavis] 08/8/2020 11:23

Wondering how Unite will cope if/when a scond wave of COVID hits/

Its a big worry, thinking of getting out....long-term it is problematic for Unite I feel?

[rambutan2] 30/7/2020 20:42

As of today:

Jefferies International today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Unite Group PLC (LON:UTG) and raised its price target to 1070p (from 1028p).

[rambutan2] 29/7/2020 20:18

Presentation and webcast links:

[maddox] 13/7/2020 10:05

Unite has acquired a new 300-bed development site in central Edinburgh 'delivering a development yield in line with the Company's enhanced 8.5% target for provincial markets'.

It appears that Unite are taking full advantage of the Covid-19 impact on the wider-Commercial Property Sector to pick-up prime sites at a reduced prices.

Unites' existing development pipeline of 5000+ beds will be delivered on a target initial yield of 6.8%. Whereas they are now targeting enhanced returns on new developments with yields on cost of 7.5% in London and 8.5% in provincial markets and 100 basis points lower for University partnerships. The Covid cloud may thus have a silver lining for Unite.

[bothdavis] 08/7/2020 22:53

I hope so, still not convinced all students who said they will take up Uni places will do so...