Unite Share Discussion Threads

[madengland_] 04/1/2021 16:05

Lockdown jitters

[madengland_] 29/12/2020 10:06

Thanks for sharing the post Maddox. As you say the preferred bidder/partner with a trusted approach means a great deal. Very pleased to have taken a chunk of these with a long term view into the SIPP and ISAs. I expect the yield will be greater than my drawdown when I come to that day. All the best. MadE

[madengland_] 22/12/2020 12:52

Thanks Maddox. I am a self confessed non chartist, although I appreciate some people do very well from their perspective. I was just watching and weighting for what felt like the right time to buy this one into my SIPP. It does feel like we can't get much more gloomier, suppose Q1 could be a risk but on a long term this looks a good enough entry point for me for what you hope will be a solid yield in years to comeFingers crossed

[maddox] 21/12/2020 22:03

Welcome aboard madengland.

What an absolutely crazy looking chart!

[madengland_] 21/12/2020 15:46

Well just bought in

[maddox] 21/12/2020 12:22

Whilst the new strain of the virus appears to spread more easily there is a good chance that it is less dangerous. Virus' tend to evolve to become less severe so hopefully this might be the case here. Grant Shapps Secretary of State for Transport described on BBC R4 Today a Wedding Party of 15 people (he was invited but didn't go) where 11 subsequently tested positive for Covid - none of them had any symptoms. This characteristic may itself be responsible for promoting more rapid spreading as the asymptomatic carrier will feel fine and less likely to take precautions or self-isolate.

Hospital admission figures are a crucial indicator here.

The original strain of Covid didn't pose a threat to life for students - but that hasn't stopped the Uni Sector from taking mind numbingly stupid decisions so far. There is no evidence to suggest they will improve.

[madengland_] 20/12/2020 12:23

I can't imagine we will see sub £8 again but you never know.

[madengland_] 20/12/2020 12:22

Am guessing the market is anticipating risk of no rents Q1? Maybe this uncertainty is going to deliver a bargain entry point

[maddox] 10/12/2020 17:01

Thanks LM, much appreciated

[madengland_] 10/12/2020 15:40

Thank you for that. So maybe a lower entry equating to an opportunity

[madengland_] 10/12/2020 11:50

Totally agree with that sentiment maddox.Any idea what percentage of rooms go to foreign students from EU and what the likely outcomes are in the event of no deal on that flow of students? Also very aware that the student accommodation is let out to many overseas visitors during the summer break. How much could be at risk? Long term buy yes. When to buy?

[maddox] 10/12/2020 11:26

Frankly, I don't know and to what degree Unite is in the firing line. They quickly waived the fees for students that had to withdraw from Uni at the start of the Covid outbreak. So I think that this should have enhanced their reputation.

But I think that this situation has been exacerbated by the shambles that the Uni Sector has made of their response to Covid. Locking their students up in their halls and treating them poorly is a big contributor. At the end of the day students (apart from a very small proportion) are not at risk from Covid and yet their Uni experience has been very badly affected. I'm not surprised that they are angry.

I hope that the Unis come to their senses and improve their approach.

[lord mandelbaum] 10/12/2020 09:33

What impact (if any) do you see coming from the noise around the current Rent Strike? I see this as a far bigger risk than Brexit. Yes, I think a no-deal scenario will prompt further selling of UK plc but reckon the impact on future attendance EU student numbers is largely priced in and/or mitigated by increase in UK students.

[maddox] 09/12/2020 21:03

Personally I'll be somewhat relieved if Bojo's diner goes well and he get's his leg over and a deal with the EU is agreed. However, whilst I see almost zero impact on Unite's business as a result of a no deal Brexit on previous experience if there is no deal I expect Unite share price to crater.

In preparation for this eventuality I would encourage anyone interested in UTG as an investment to look at the recent share price action and valuation metrics to decide what represents a good price to buy-in. It'll be a shame if we don't get a trade deal with the EU but a double shame if a potential bargain price is missed to get on board.

[maddox] 05/12/2020 08:16

My fears have been allayed - I understand that they are going to test each student twice. Which would eliminate incidents of false positives and negatives. It'll be very interesting to see what the infection rate is? I'm not now picking up any news items relating to Covid in Universities, is there any cause for concern, or has media attention just moved on?

[maddox] 02/12/2020 07:04

Agreed, also the demographic dip in 17 and 18 year olds is unwinding and an ever higher proportion want to go to university. The Govt has at long last recognised the 'export' value of International Students to the UK. It no longer sees them as illegal immigrants. So hopefully together with Universities desperate to repair their finances we'll see a strong recruitment effort.

Covid has been incredibly badly handled but the end is in sight. I still have some concerns about the impending mass testing of students. I expect Covid to have burnt itself out with the unfortunate students locked up in their petri dish accommodation. However, the PCR test has an estimated false positive rate of between 0.8 and 4.0%. It us susceptible to pick-up previously infected students as currently infectious. So this false positive rate might be considerably higher when testing the student population.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30453-7/fulltext

This has the potential to create another completely false panic in the media, and unwarreneted locking up of students over Xmas.

[lord mandelbaum] 01/12/2020 16:38

Thanks Maddox, your analysis helped convince me UTG is a buy.. and the last few days' share price action is pleasing; it's always nice when it does what you expect it to.

Aside from the risk of a general market wobble, I really don't see much risk. The negatives of this academic year are pretty much priced in, the balance sheet is good and with the economy being weaker for the next few years I can well imagine more students wanting to avoid the workplace and enter University while conditions improve.

[maddox] 30/11/2020 16:12

Hi Guys,

Welcome aboard, great to have some more company.

I find UTG's volatility frankly baffling tbh.

One of its primary attractions for me is the stability of its market (also it's under-supplied), its uncorrelated with the general economy and the forward visibility of growth (3 year pipeline of developments) and it's asset backed. Clearly as FIs buy-in, sell-out or adjust their weighting the share price will respond but the way it responds to news of a vaccine, Brexit etc., is pretty unfathomable.

I thus fully expect UTG to shoot-up should a deal be struck with the EU.

Regards Maddox

[madengland_] 29/11/2020 15:39

Good luck, I'm very likely to follow which probably means a 5% jump tomorrow ahead of me getting in!

[lord mandelbaum] 29/11/2020 00:36

Agree and bought in on Friday after a bit more DD and chart ogling, especialy the chart ogling. There may be sprighlier opportunities on the risk/reward continuum but this is such a safe bet in my humble.

[madengland_] 28/11/2020 11:57

A good yielding diversified stock for a long term pension for sure. Some decent pickings out there, this is def one of them but when.....

[madengland_] 28/11/2020 11:55

I too find myself at the same place as you on this share. I was quite pleased to see it pulling back after the initial vaccine spike, but of course as you have, I found myself wondering why.I'd imagine there is a risk of students not returning Q1 next year? UTG were confident of not breaking covenants back a couple months back, I think 62% occupancy was stated as a problem level. Is this a concern?

[lord mandelbaum] 27/11/2020 10:57

Been monitoring UTG since last year when I didn't buy in as the premium was too much and I've read the commentary on this board. There's much to like about the geographic spread of the portfolio and I only see minor issues. (e.g. decrease in EU students and potential decrease in city centre property values.)


Now it looks like a screaming buy for the long term portfolio.... but what's with the current share price slide - is this just a technical chart thing?