Unite Share Discussion Threads

[okosling] 03/2/2021 19:10

Barclays has downgraded UTG on the back of their ongoing exposure to the Covid-19 pandemic. The bank cut its rating to 'underweight' from 'overweight', and reduced its target price for the shares by 22% to 850p.

It said there were four key reasons behind the rating shift.
"The drivers of the change are: assumed negative news flow in the near term; our expectation of more negative earnings per share impact in the 2021 full year than currently assumed by the market; deferred total accounting returns, which we do not think are reflected in the group’s premium rating (18% premium to full-year 2021 net asset value versus our coverage average around 14% discount); and an increase in our discount rate," said the analysts, who put their earnings per share forecasts 19% below consensus.

I've bought a few today. I also hold Empiric, a much larger holding, which I've held for a while.

[maddox] 03/2/2021 18:23

Yep, UTG always manage to get themselves ahead of the pack.

In the round the positive sentiment and credibility they are creating will be paid back several-fold if it helps them win University deals. For example, the London Development Plan means that any PBSA developments in London will in future need a University partner - no partner, no planning permission.

These PBSA deals are very long-term relationships where the Universities students are the customers. They'll want to pick a trustworthy fair-dealing partner like Unite, particularly if they are prime on-campus locations.

[madengland_] 03/2/2021 14:49

Surprised by the drop today it's got to be said. Looks tempting to buy a few more

[madengland_] 03/2/2021 10:03

UTG continuing to play the long game well. 4p EPS is a small price for trust with the students, government and universities and at the same time encouraging to see we are 84% paid for term 2 at this point.

[madengland_] 19/1/2021 09:33

Beware the curse of the IC tip :-)

[maddox] 18/1/2021 09:53

It always 'appears darkest just before dawn' it is often said. With the rapid roll-out of vaccines the dawn cannot be too far away. The above 65s vulnerable and front-line worker total 13.5m people and we're getting to wards high coverage in nursing homes and 70+. However, there is a delay before the vaccine becomes effective and the hospitals are facing the peak pressure so news is still very grim.

The share price appears to have faltered due to the discounts being offered to students unable to occupy their accommodation. But it's difficult to see Covid-19 as anything other than a short-term hit. The limits to the desirability of Zoom meetings and on-line learning have been revealed. Student's have a compelling need for physical social interaction and are longing to get back to normal. This suggests that the bounce back and sentiment towards the sector could change very fast.

Investors Chronicle are looking to a strong recovery 'with analysts forecasting earnings to grow at a compound annual rate of 36.7 per cent, over the next 24 months' and earnings to be 14% above 2019 levels. With prospects for the rest of the economy looking uncertain, and property sector (esp. retail and office) looking challenged - the Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) will look to be a stable and attractive source of income and growth.

High expectations for student landlords

[madengland_] 14/1/2021 12:24

Well I think this is one that it's worth reading Maddox post and also recent Times article.Planners are certainly seeing bigger students blocks as way of taking pressure off communities and housing stock by private landlords and all the issues HMO brings. This is likely to throw open more opportunities. At the same time UTG are burnishing their image. Smart long play

[its the oxman] 14/1/2021 10:51

8m hit from missed rent is relatively small beer. Feels like all the bad news is in the price now. Hopeful of a sustained recovery from this level, 1000p, going forward.

[madengland_] 08/1/2021 12:06

Not sure but all I do know is I employ a lot of university students and most are back in their digs

[its the oxman] 07/1/2021 13:47

Is it a case of no student accommodation refunds this time round?

[madengland_] 04/1/2021 16:05

Lockdown jitters

[madengland_] 29/12/2020 10:06

Thanks for sharing the post Maddox. As you say the preferred bidder/partner with a trusted approach means a great deal. Very pleased to have taken a chunk of these with a long term view into the SIPP and ISAs. I expect the yield will be greater than my drawdown when I come to that day. All the best. MadE

[madengland_] 22/12/2020 12:52

Thanks Maddox. I am a self confessed non chartist, although I appreciate some people do very well from their perspective. I was just watching and weighting for what felt like the right time to buy this one into my SIPP. It does feel like we can't get much more gloomier, suppose Q1 could be a risk but on a long term this looks a good enough entry point for me for what you hope will be a solid yield in years to comeFingers crossed

[maddox] 21/12/2020 22:03

Welcome aboard madengland.

What an absolutely crazy looking chart!

[madengland_] 21/12/2020 15:46

Well just bought in

[maddox] 21/12/2020 12:22

Whilst the new strain of the virus appears to spread more easily there is a good chance that it is less dangerous. Virus' tend to evolve to become less severe so hopefully this might be the case here. Grant Shapps Secretary of State for Transport described on BBC R4 Today a Wedding Party of 15 people (he was invited but didn't go) where 11 subsequently tested positive for Covid - none of them had any symptoms. This characteristic may itself be responsible for promoting more rapid spreading as the asymptomatic carrier will feel fine and less likely to take precautions or self-isolate.

Hospital admission figures are a crucial indicator here.

The original strain of Covid didn't pose a threat to life for students - but that hasn't stopped the Uni Sector from taking mind numbingly stupid decisions so far. There is no evidence to suggest they will improve.

[madengland_] 20/12/2020 12:23

I can't imagine we will see sub £8 again but you never know.

[madengland_] 20/12/2020 12:22

Am guessing the market is anticipating risk of no rents Q1? Maybe this uncertainty is going to deliver a bargain entry point

[maddox] 10/12/2020 17:01

Thanks LM, much appreciated

[madengland_] 10/12/2020 15:40

Thank you for that. So maybe a lower entry equating to an opportunity

[madengland_] 10/12/2020 11:50

Totally agree with that sentiment maddox.Any idea what percentage of rooms go to foreign students from EU and what the likely outcomes are in the event of no deal on that flow of students? Also very aware that the student accommodation is let out to many overseas visitors during the summer break. How much could be at risk? Long term buy yes. When to buy?