Unite Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 13/3/2009 00:57

Chaps,

Please do not respond to the drivel it only encourages yards and yards of yar boo sucks type comments.

Regards, Maddox

[fast investor] 12/3/2009 17:23

These bulls talk about assets and then you see this in the accounts..

Adjusted net debt reduced from a peak of GBP862 million in November 2006 to
GBP531 million at 31 December 2008.. LOL LOL LOL. Get real please.

the companys loss making AND is ALSO cash flow negative on operations.

In other words negative operational cash flow, and thats with a mountain of debt.

[fast investor] 12/3/2009 17:08

Allseeingeye ... how much is an asset worth?.

answer what some one will stump up for it and do you really think that the assets at this present time are worth what you quote above?.

Now come on stop talking bloody silly.

The biggest problem here facing this company is how to to reduce that massive debt burden and from looking at the accounts I cant see any easy answer.

Itl be hanging around the managements head like a lead weight.

I still cant see why all this sudden interest in the stock?, it must have had a write up in a newspaper or tip sheet.

[volsung] 12/3/2009 16:30

Devonlad look at the long-term chart. Now is exactly the time to short it.

[devonlad] 12/3/2009 16:29

Short of the year? The trend is your friend, sorry this looks like it is going to breakout, risen significantly in the last week, I wouldn't short a share doing that, far too many other opportunities.

[volsung] 12/3/2009 16:12

These are about to start the next leg down. Far far too much debt. A short of the year!

[allseeingeye] 12/3/2009 15:51

"On an IFRS basis, net assets excluding minority interests fell to GBP320 million (258 pence per share) from GBP450 million (364 pence per share) a year earlier."

So you think 70p (mkt cap £88m) is grossly overvalued and worth a short - good luck, you obviously feel a fair market cap is £40-50m?? The directors recently answered that one with their own cash, if the mkt won't buy it my guess is a predator co will, as was rumoured before Xmas when the price was double current levels without the benefit of recent property sales and some decisive m'ment action.

Still your spooks aren't as hilarious as the character last Fri who tried to peddle a story that Unite would have to liquidate properties to pay off minimum wage back payments.

I will have to qualify all by saying "without prejudice"....

[fast investor] 12/3/2009 15:25

Falling away nicely now that peeps realise this one is proped up by debt.

Cant understand why its got so much support today, cant think that theres any tip sheets out??????????????????????????????????????????????????

[fast investor] 12/3/2009 11:39

"We retain the hope that Unite, which is leveraged circa 240% at the low point, can meet its plans," the broker concludes............. ends

looks far too expensive to me.

Debt levels at this rate can cause massive risk downward pressure on property companys, any company come to think of it.

[fast investor] 12/3/2009 10:55

Looks like a sound short now, share price well over extended....

Broker snap: KBC's note of caution on Unite
09 Mar, 2009 11:59


Shares in student accommodation provider Unite Group soared Monday after the company narrowed full-year losses and gave an upbeat assessment of future prospects.

However, broker KBC Peel Hunt has taken the opportunity to downgrade the stock from "buy" to "hold" as it believes "the shares will wait to see whether the business model weathers credit uncertainties."

Unite is targeting a reduction in business overheads of £9m per year "but cash flows, we estimate, minus £10m -£20m per annum.," KBC said.

"The £58m equity raising and asset disposals to third parties by the USAF Fund have been useful and allowed Unite to subsequently sell a further £171m of product to USAF late in the year," KBC notes, but adds that the disposals were below market rate and although they have reduced the gearing of the holding company "the fall in valuation of Unite's wholly owned portfolio as well as its share of the Fund assets has meant gearing has increased from 106% to 131% at Dec 2008."

Despite concerns about the need to keep gearing under control, the broker believes the shares remain worth holding.

"We retain the hope that Unite, which is leveraged circa 240% at the low point, can meet its plans," the broker concludes.

[crosswire] 12/3/2009 09:35

Analyst Consensus 12 Month Target Price

The 4 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Unite Group (UTG:LSE) have a median target of 217.50, with a high estimate of 360.00 and a low estimate of 120.00. The median estimate represents a 372.83% increase from the last price of 46.00.





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Heading for the low estimate of 120p..............IMO

[crosswire] 12/3/2009 08:28

Mrket correction in progress...........

Where is this heading?? £1.00??

[crosswire] 12/3/2009 06:44

Maddox

Thank you.

Can you place the news in with the charts above.

cross

[maddox] 11/3/2009 12:13

Hi Crosswire,

The Telegraph article is very sloppy. It fails to make clear that Unite's problems are solely and directly a result of the Credit Crunch; fails to point out the gap between the NAV and the share price; and attributes the share price fall to a possible rights issue.

Well may be, on the other hand it is certainly the case that the share price has fallen in response to heavy selling. A lot of that selling may also have been by forced sellers needing to fund redemptions by investors. It will be interesting to see whether the tick up in share price encourages the possible sellers to hold onto their shares or will they have no choice? This I think will determine the immediate prospect for UTG's share price.

Regards, Maddox

[crosswire] 11/3/2009 11:14

On 9 March 2009, Mr Geoffrey Maddrell purchased 120,000 ordinary shares of 25p
each in the Company (representing 0.097% of the total issued share capital of
the Company), at an average purchase price of 46.8125p per share.

[crosswire] 10/3/2009 20:53

Analyst Consensus 12 Month Target Price

The 4 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Unite Group (UTG:LSE) have a median target of 217.50, with a high estimate of 360.00 and a low estimate of 120.00. The median estimate represents a 372.83% increase from the last price of 46.00.




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Looks an interesting share!

[the troll] 10/3/2009 14:40

that's right, who said 'buy & hold' was dead ? use it now on UTG & you'll be very well rewarded ( IMHO ).

[maddox] 10/3/2009 13:13

Hi Troll

This is just what I've been looking to see - the Directors putting their money in and buying decent volumes of shares.

With such a disparity between the share price and the Net Asset Value - you have to think that there is something seriously wrong with the business. The Directors buying dispels these doubts and really boosts confidence in Unite in these extremely challenging market conditions.

Regards, Maddox

[scburbs] 09/3/2009 21:36

Rental growth numbers look exceptional! I am pleased to see they have answered my question about sales to USAF.

"Notwithstanding the headroom outlined above, during 2009 the Group intends to continue as planned to sell stabilised investment assets, either to USAF or to third parties, and is seeking to sell approximately £150 million of such assets during the year. .... The extent to which USAF has capacity to acquire assets from UNITE in 2009 will depend upon yield movements and whether it is able to access cash resources on deposit with Landsbanki, the Icelandic bank that is in a form of administration. Consequently, the Group is not relying on such capacity being available."



This does increase the risk of UTG if it can't sell to USAF, but the market does look much more lively than the general commercial property market. The announcement is very detailed and I will need to find time to read the whole thing.

[the troll] 09/3/2009 16:01

Maddox; THANKS.

I've bought ( my only exposure to property sector )

[maddox] 09/3/2009 12:21

Hi troll,

There is no question that the credit crunch has thrown a spanner in the Unite engine for future growth, but they appear to be well on top of the situation. On the risk side a few points of reassurance:

>> They arranged a new banking facility in Dec 2008 - in the midst of the banking crisis. No new financing required until 2011.

>> Good margin of comfort on their banking covenants and have further ability to manage if needs be i.e. pay down some debt.

>> On track to deliver 7-10% rental growth this academic year.

>> The investment market for student rental properties is still functioning: they have recently sold £15m and have another £30m in solicitor's hands.

>> They have taken tough action to become operationally cash positive.

>> They have made a 100% provision for the UK Student Accommodation Fund's Landsbanki deposit - whereas indications are that 90% is potentially recoverable (no timescale given).

>> Development pipeline for 2009 & 2010 is fully financed. If needs be they can postpone 2011 delivery of developments.

Regards, Maddox

[the troll] 09/3/2009 11:02

here's the part I like;

'full compliance with all borrowing covenants and a cash balance of £112m at 31.12.08 with £57m available for general purposes after full provision for commited develpoment expenditure'...... an excellent position to be in.

NAV's; properties @ cost or NRV = £2.58 ps, @ market value = £3.25 ps,

so, with share price @ c 50p, it's equivalent to doing buy to let @ 25% + gross yeild, every residential landlord's dream, surely ?

occupancy on target for 99 % + yet again.

this is a long term buy capable of significant outperformance ( IMHO ).

[barn owl] 09/3/2009 10:20

Well i bought in this morning for a long-term capital appreciation punt.
Good luck all!

[mctmct] 09/3/2009 09:32

I'm new to UTG

Strong results and outlook, in current markets, but dividend passed. Massive discount to NAV. Looks like one to buy and tuck away for capital growth.

Is that too superficial?

mct