Uk Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[moneymunch] 23/3/2016 19:09

In 2011, 5% of oil is exported out of Fawley by road or rail according to Exxon who own the refinery, and therefore presumably they can import by road and rail.

Travelling far and wide
About 80 per cent of Fawley Refinery output is
pumped through underground pipelines to
distribution terminals as far afield as London,
Bristol and Birmingham. In total, 450
miles/700km of pipeline transport around
25 million litres of product every day. A further
15 per cent of output is taken by sea to our
export markets, while about 5 per cent travels
by road or rail.



Ukog and Igas export oil from Horndean to Fawley.

Oil is exported by road tanker to the nearby Holybourne Oil Terminal and from there on to the Fawley oil refinery.

[thegrumpster] 23/3/2016 17:36

So if oil covered any shortfall in revenues from running the reopened passenger line, everyone would be happy.

The Council ( up to £900k per year), environmentalists, local campaigners...

Money talks.

[thegrumpster] 23/3/2016 17:33

"The six-mile (10km) Waterside line is currently only used by freight trains serving the Fawley oil refinery complex. It was last used by passenger trains in 1966."


?? In 2014 freight trains were using it according to the BBC article.



-------------------------------------------------------------


"Plans to reopen a freight railway line near Southampton to passenger trains have been shelved over cost concerns.

Hampshire County Council considered using the line, between Totton and Hythe, for commuter and tourist services.

A council report came down against progressing with the scheme, which would cost £900,000 a year to run.

Campaigners said the environmental and social benefits of the proposals were not being taken into account.

Analysis By Paul CliftonBBC South transport correspondent

In 2009, the Association of Train Operating Companies suggested the case for re-opening the Fawley line was very strong, representing the highest value for money of all the routes it examined.

In its feasibility study, Hampshire County Council concluded demand was not strong enough to make a strong business case.

It said the service would take passengers from current commercial bus services and the council-subsidised Hythe Ferry.

However, the authority says it could review its position - apparently due to the development of the former military port at Marchwood. The site is currently up for sale with 25 bidders interested.

So rejection will send a bleak message to other supporters of projects to reopen old lines for new services.

The six-mile (10km) Waterside line is currently only used by freight trains serving the Fawley oil refinery complex. It was last used by passenger trains in 1966.

The capital cost of reinstating the line to accommodate passenger trains was estimated at about £17m for relaying track, installing new signalling at Totton and building new platforms at Hythe and Totton.

The scheme would involve a single two-car Class 158 diesel train making one round trip an hour between Hythe and all stations to Eastleigh, including Southampton Central.


The council report was against committing further funding for the scheme due to the "poor value for money business case", although it said the authority should review the position should local circumstances change.

Local campaigners maintained that a passenger service would cut congestion on routes in Waterside and allow tourists to access the nearby New Forest National Park."

[wisteria2] 23/3/2016 17:31

Well my 12 month target for the share price is about a £. N.B. I will be averaging up along the way..GLA. HOLDERS!!

[thegrumpster] 23/3/2016 17:22

".......Owing to security reasons at the oil refinery, Fawley Station would not be reopened as part of the scheme."


Probably not insurmountable if the money is going to come rolling in.

[thegrumpster] 23/3/2016 17:19

"On January 21, 2014, Hampshire County Council decided to shelve the plans to reopen the line. The council's report came down against committing further funding for the scheme due to a perceived poor value for money business case, although it said the authority should review the position should local circumstances change."


It all comes down to value for money......or probably just money.

[thegrumpster] 23/3/2016 17:13

Rail is the most likely option IMO 75-100 tonnes per wagon. 1000 tonnes or so per train a few hours overnight to Fawley.

Rail link at Fawley was supposedly mothballed (according to one poster), but it will probably be the cheapest option to recommission it.

Pipelines if any would just be for the few miles to a siding for loading. which would have to be built,(unless there is anything existing in the area) but is cheaper than a full length pipeline.

[theuniversal] 23/3/2016 17:04

Forwood 2350. I agree more relative value 1: what an independent Would value a co. 2: what us Pi would value a co. 3: what MM's would value a co.The key is getting them all synchronised lol....

[xippy] 23/3/2016 16:16

is it me or has everyone missed the point over the QUALITY of the oil that they have found. The API is coming in around 40 this is at the high end of crude quality and commands the highest price. my understanding is that Brent has an API of around 38. On the basis it flows freely, is on land and is of a high quality, i can't understand what the current reluctance is to be invested here. Great for us in the know and chances to top up cheaply. just need to win the Euro lottery and take the whole company over lol. DYOR

[forwood] 23/3/2016 15:31

Lol - we have enough people trying to disprove the theory, whatever it is! A true scientist doesn't take a position, s/he tests probabilities against the Null hypothesis that there is no relationship between two variables. I suppose the variables could be share price and value of company's oil. But I don't think any of us doubt there is a relationship. Our difference is about the value to put on it.

[beebong1] 23/3/2016 15:28

Thegrumpster

No real need for crude oil pipelines in the UK but Wytch Farm is the exception due to the amount of oil being produced.

Main problems were;
not enough tankers in the UK to carry the oil - over 500 a day
not enough time to load/discharge the tankers
massive increase in local traffic

No oil company would ever put crude oil through a product pipeline due to the cost of clean up afterwards. Crude oil really is thick black sh1t hence only carried by dedicated tankers. Product carriers even have segregated systems to keep the products apart.

SS has obviously done his homework and knows he will need to limit the number of tankers a day as this will need to be declared in any planing permission. He really does need to fin a way to get massive amounts of oil to the refinery. He has 3 choices IMO:
buy/lease one of the existing product pipelines
build new pipeline to refinery or local port for loading onto tanker
build pipeline to rail link

Restricting output to 2500 bopd per site may well be his only option though.

[gazza102] 23/3/2016 15:14

Well I guess there's not many Einstein's on here. Lol

[theuniversal] 23/3/2016 14:57

A true pi would give pro and con. Like Einstein did when postulating a theory...for and against to prove or disprove...

[funkmasterp12] 23/3/2016 14:36

I can happily say I am not :)

I'm being as objective as I can be. I'm also very wary of AIM.

[moneymunch] 23/3/2016 14:36

Ps forwood, it wasn't that long ago that many Aim listed explorer's were valued over £200m just on seismic data and not one barrel of oil....Ukog are sitting on billions of barrels and the market will have a fair idea soon on how much is recoverable.....full market appreciation will arrive. Gl :-)

[forwood] 23/3/2016 14:34

if you are TW funkmaster, you're not my favourite person! Try leaving your lenigas fixation to one side, take an objective look at the situation and potential and admit this could be 30x bagger within 3 years! we could all make a lot of money then, far more than trying in vain to debunk it!

[moneymunch] 23/3/2016 14:31

Lol what's there to be bearish about, Ukog have just made a major world class high quality oil discovery with billion barrel potential. Gl....On and Up!!!!:-)

[forwood] 23/3/2016 14:28

Let's put another perceptive on UKOG valuation. PMO is valued at more than 5 times UKOG but has £2.242bn net debt. It produced 57.6 kboepd but only made $903m cash from that, $809 post tax. Its capex and other charges completely wiped that out,so in the end cash flow was negative $142m. It has 750 mmboe of reserves. By 2018 it hopes to ramp up production to 80 - 90 kboepd.

Frankly I prefer the metrics here!

[moneymunch] 23/3/2016 14:22

You're showing your true colours funky, another TW mangy poodle cohort perhaps??? DL's in line for this year's honours list, haven't you heard. :-)

[12bn] 23/3/2016 14:19

You are very optimistic then forwood,so far only 1680 bopd have been shown to flow from a vertical well and although horizontal wells may produce more, these are still only initial flow rates that will fall off pretty quickly. There is no guarantee of even the PoO rising up to $45 a barrel. Wells are very expensive to drill even on land,the cost depends on the depth drilled and the cost of rig hire. LGOs wells to 3500 ft (the C-sands) cost in the region of $1.3m each and nearly sunk the company (still might).

[thegrumpster] 23/3/2016 14:19

Similar thing.