Uk Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[forwood] 22/3/2016 09:55

12bn - that is what those probabilities are about, about turning estimates of oil in place into recoverable oil. Do you homework before you spout your nonsense and frankly I am getting fed up with you repeating this so expect any further nonsense to be moderated.

[12bn] 22/3/2016 09:54

The figures that should be looked at are the flow rates. Flow rates drop off with time,sometimes very dramatically if gas is around. I think I was being fair using 1600 bopd for my figures earlier but I will increase it to 2000 bopd to reflect horizontal drilled wells. UKOGs share of 20% is now 400 bopd x say $45 oil - $40 extraction costs = $5. So we have $2000 per day income x 365 = $730,000k a year = approx £500k p/a. On a p/e of 10 the market cap should be £5m but it is £45m,that factors in a lot of unexpected good news imo. This is still a very expensive play imo.

[rayrac] 22/3/2016 09:54

Absolutely right forwood!

[forwood] 22/3/2016 09:52

you are not helping simon8, and I don't believe your thesis is correct. Yes it is a major retrace, from the initial spike up over 3p but it will end and this is a price point on the chart from which it has recovered before, so likely to do so again. If holders under water haven't sold to date, they are unlikely to do so now. Maybe you are just extrapolating from your own position?

If people lose confidence, they will sell. If they maintain it, selling will stop and the newcomers - and there are always those, particularly with the positive publicity - will continue to buy. You have to ask yourself where will the share price be in the medium to longer term? Hopefully it will go back up in the shorter term too.

There is more news to come, which will be the revaluation reserves, the strategy to exploit the well, the permissions to proceed with production, and so on. UKOG also has several other interests and I don't suppose these have been idle. And yes there could easily be the entry of bigger interests.

I have a niggling suspicion those bigger interests are behind the bad news bears, trying to bag a bigger bargain. Larger companies will want in, and there is scope for consolidation here. The number of interests will make it difficult to move without sending the tiddlers sky high but UKOG is the larger of the quoted UK companies so it makes sense to focus here.

[rayrac] 22/3/2016 09:51

Mad if you don't become just a small part of this game changer!

[rayrac] 22/3/2016 09:47

From today's business Telegraph....Meanwhile, UKOil & Gas has said recent flow test results from its well at Gatwick were outstanding, and compared possible output with that of the North Sea. The aggregate flow hit 1,688 barrels per day.

[12bn] 22/3/2016 09:44

robbie1424 22 Mar'16 - 08:36 - 2225 of 2229 1 0

12bn- He,s right. Ukog will only a get a small % out of ground (for now)...... Forwood,you seem to think because there might be X billions of barrels of oil in the ground that there are X billions recoverable but that is not how oil extraction works,only a small % will ever be extracted even if helped by waterflood.

[simon8] 22/3/2016 09:15

Forwood.... at the end of the day tis has risen significantly and has done so yes on good news but also on lots of PI's rushing to buy into that news many of whom were ambushed by the MM's on price spikes that soon retreated.
There will be many here now who are sat on major gains and watching them subside away on this major retrace and will have their fingers over the sell button and there are going to be more than a few sat on major pregnant losses who may wish to cut there losses for now. The traders / hot money will leave for now as there is little prospect of anything really happening here for some time so the share price will lose that support.
It is now going to be a period of a lot of behind the scenes work and I would say we are looking at best 12 months before a drill bit hits the ground again.

The only big unknown is the take-out factor...is there a company(s) out there thinking of taking a punt...in my view that is the only potential news that in the short to mid term will send tis rocketing.

It is also clear to me that at this point, despite the flow test results, and the major studies on potential reserves in the Weald the market has yet to believe the HH story - that mindset is going to take a lot to shift.

I guess the usual crowd will start screaming but this is how I see it.
G

[brianp14] 22/3/2016 09:10

Usual Aim nonsense. Churn churn churn by the City boyos This should be at 2.7 min.

[forwood] 22/3/2016 09:01

Here we are, back at the point where we'd only just found oil. It's also the place from which the share price has bounced several times. Draw your own conclusions but we're seeing a lot of buying.....


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[simon8] 22/3/2016 09:00

Interesting start to the day, the statutory 5% down...this is in major drift territory - hoping it gets some support, but hey I have my shares banked for the long terms and sadly I have no free cash at the moment to take advantage in this drop back to circa 2p.

[tommy25] 22/3/2016 08:30

useless oil in the ground, completely overvalued. will never make shareholder any money. continue to short 0p to make big money.

[niceyman1] 22/3/2016 08:20

Still very low volume on tree-shake! Could be a blue day later?

[proj] 22/3/2016 08:12

2p to sell.

Where's DATIT BOY??

[forwood] 22/3/2016 08:10

You don't get it do you 12bn? This is one vertical well. A horizontal well will double, possibly triple this flow. Several in the array Xodus has suggested might see 10k being extracted a day. Then there are the other UKOG interests in the Weald. I shouldn't have to repeat what's in the header but already a 90% probability of 2bn barrels for UKOG alone, about to be updated to reflect the findings here. Worth over £57bn...

[12bn] 22/3/2016 07:47

Just a few figures to ponder on. If HH flows at 1600 bopd and initial flow rates fall off usually,then UKOGs share is 320 bopd (20%). If oil manages to get up to $45 a barrel average and costs are $40 a barrel to extract then UKOG makes $5 a bopd. This is 1600 dollars a day or $584,000 per year = approx £400k. The market cap is £45.5m so that is 100 years profit needed (p/e of 100)! Is the market cap too high?

[moneymunch] 22/3/2016 07:17

The Independent 22nd March

‘Outstanding’ oil flow produced by Gatwick Gusher

Studies have suggested that there are reserves of around 10 billion barrels under Horse Hill

[moneymunch] 22/3/2016 06:46

Given these exceptional results, the Company has commissioned Nutech to investigate a possible upgrade to the oil in place ("OIP") calculated within all 3 test zones together with engineering studies to examine possible flow rates from a horizontal well. Reservoir engineering analyses by Nutech and Xodus are also underway, and will likely result in an estimation of potential recoverable volumes.

Results of these studies will be reported shortly.

Preparation is now underway to obtain regulatory permissions to conduct extended production tests from all 3 zones at the site, followed by a horizontal sidetrack in the Kimmeridge and a possible new Portland development well.

[moneymunch] 22/3/2016 06:39

Brent at $41.70 and rising........tree shake in progress to encourage the weak and worried to part with the shares cheaply, and so watch out for a sudden and significant re-rate at anytime, Ukog are sitting on a multi-billion barrel world class high quality oil discovery, full market appreciation as positive newsflow continues. Gla Longs ;-)

[12bn] 22/3/2016 06:31

One more point OIP (oil in place) does not mean 'extractable oil',only a fraction of the OIP will be able to be extracted on pump alone (a massive % will never be extracted),eventually waterflood will have to be used and that means drilling very expensive wells just to pump water in. The market cap is £45.5m for 20% of the oil extracted,is this high market cap warranted or is it mainly hype? The main downside here is the trading 'sell the news' philosophy. If there are several months now with little news flow then the share price will drift lower. Reality should temper blind enthusiasm here imo.

[thegrumpster] 21/3/2016 22:14

Few more costs and links for the US here: (FWIW)

[thegrumpster] 21/3/2016 22:08

Costs for interest.


Probably can't make too much of a comparison, but taking off the cost of fraccing might bring it closer.


How Much Does it Cost to Drill a Single Marcellus Well? (2011)



The costs to drill a well break down this way:

Land acquisition and leasing: $2.1 million
Permitting: $10,000
Vertical drilling: $663,000
Horizontal drilling: $1.2 million
Hydraulic fracturing: $2.5 million
Completion: $200,000
Production to gathering: $472,000


Sample of Canadian costs 2015: