Uk Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[funkmasterp12] 07/6/2016 12:02

I have no ulterior motive, I'm not working for anyone, I do not know anyone who owns or is short shares in this company. Bears of companies always seem to get attacked because they must have an agenda. It isn't the case with me.

Actually, I would be happy to short UKOG. But it's impossible. No companies will take a spreadbet and although I wouldn't know how, getting borrow on the stock is apparently impossible too according to commentators on other websites.

I also ask how you can quantify this claim: "Logically - and honestly - an share price of 1.5p is seriously cheap relative to the assets."

To the assets potentially, but not to UKOG as a business. I would argue it's actually grossly overvaluing a business which will need to place further, does not generate any revenue and does not generate any free cash. Only when they can fund extended well testing and prove commercial revenue does this begin to look interesting - but the share price could easily be sub-1p at that stage. Why buy now?

PS: I have been long UKOG before (and ALBA/STG). Check my posting history if you like, I can speak favorably about shares too! ;)

[beebong1] 07/6/2016 11:48

forwood
As I have done loads of research into the various licenses so far as a company they do not seem to have moved any further forward than last year.
How many companies drill, find oil and don't go into production straight away?
UKOG have never given a reason, only that they will carry out more ewt's, drill horizontal sidetrack in the Kimmeridge and a possible new Portland development well. The only production we have to look forward to is;

Horizontal production wells (2017)

Holmwood-1 well (2016/2017)
2 others identified wells (2017/18)

IMO the Horizontal production wells will be funded from the loan facility as that could be the game changer IMO. Whether the other members of the consortium can raise the cash for their share is my only concern so are UKOG negotiating behind the scenes to buy them out as well? We don't know.

At one stage I thought SS was lining up to try and sell the whole lot to the govt. as it was all too much for them to manage, especially getting the oil to a refinery. If their is that much oil in the Weald, Fawley does not have the production capacity to manage about 1/2 of what they are predicting for 2030.
IMO, too many PI's are only looking at the short term when in fact this really is a long term journey and I'm guessing some will have pegged out before it really starts.

On step forward would be nice. Sod the reports and all the hype. Until it flows it is not worth anything IMO. Nothing I say is going to influence whether PI's buy or sell. Anything under £100k is hardly a game changer IMO and the majority of PI's don't even get close to dealing in those figures.

[forwood] 07/6/2016 11:35

As for MPET, it is a distressed seller. There is very little you could infer from the price they are able to obtain for their HH holding. If UKOG does take advantage it will be because it is worth it. I hope they don't pay so much that they leave themselves unable to fund the development but I am sure this will have been factored into plans. With very little further investment, a 90 day extended flow test producing c 1688 bod will generate over £5.2m revenue. I'm aware they plan to do more but the additional investment on a side tracked well, coupled with the extra oil pumped could even be largely self-funding.

[forwood] 07/6/2016 11:18

Frankly I don't believe this is purely 'honest opinion'. There's something odd about someone spending so much time and effort posting 'honestly' negative views and at the same time dissing or undermining those who post positive views.

It's been relatively easy to predict the direction here since the placing was announced. I appreciate you play the ball more than the player but the effect of continuous negativity is the same. If anything, you've been piling it on more as the share price has dropped. Why?

We know there's a huge and valuable asset here. It is 25% more valuable than it was in March & April when oil was c $40; it is over 60% more valuable than the lows in Feb / January. We've also had confirmation of a substantial oil find. Logically - and honestly - an share price of 1.5p is seriously cheap relative to the assets.

The share price is quite simply the sum of buys and sells. More sellers, the price goes down, more buyers, it goes up. Occasionally you get market maker games but you can't do a conventional short other than by having shares to sell in the first place.

So when you encourage people not to buy or undermine holders to the point they sell, you are having an effect. On a ftse 100 share individual views count for very little, but this is a small aim share. One large sell can move the price, as can one large buy. Views matter!

[funkmasterp12] 07/6/2016 10:42

Forwood - ban me if you like, it won't make any difference to your investment in UKOG though. I have offered balanced opinion and have not personally attacked anyone. And actually, if you look at the share price performance and my predictions, I have been mostly right.

I got the timing of the placing wrong, but I did say it would be at a discount, that it would not be placed to serious investors and that it would create a large stock over-hang. All of those things appear to have happened.

I also have said that buying MPET would be suicidal and offered countless reasons why.

The rampers on the other hand have said placings would be at a premium (it wasn't), that the price of oil would boost the UKOG share price (it hasn't) and that the EY report would be "transformational" (it wasn't - and none of the other HHDL companies ran with it!).

I offer no opinion on Nutech, other than to think it'll create a share price spike is misguided. There's too much stock now in the way from the placing.

Where I do think there are opportunities are for UKOG to raise meaningful amounts of cash, to proper investors - which shouldn't be an issue if the prospects are so good. £4m won't last long, they need to raise a lot more to get the well into proper testing and into production. This however would mean serious dilution from the current levels. Buyers should also be aware that oil prospects mean very little when the company is running on a wafer thin balance sheet.

If you want to ban me for offering an honest opinion, so be it. But as said, it won't help your position.

[beebong1] 07/6/2016 10:29

forwood
How can you think it will drop any further? I have never given a prediction on the share price either on the rise or fall.
I have been invested since 2013 when they first bought into HH so have had the full journey. Nearly got caught out in October 2014 but managed to sell in time.
I won't make that mistake twice.

Two yellows and then a red? :o)

[beebong1] 07/6/2016 10:24

Some of you have short memories.
Did Magellan sell us a pup?
2014
Remember when 456 Bcf gas in place was expected and they found none.

Not de-rampers, just wary of those who promote too hard, too long and too often.
If you were a LTH would you be posting all day, every day and every detail and piece of information repeatedly posted. I THINK NOT.

I take each piece of news as it comes and base my decisions on official sources not the ramblings of lunatics.

[gismo] 07/6/2016 09:51

They won't deter me moneymunch. The last report from Nutech and Schlumberger allowed for a degree of water, there was hardly any and it flowed without stimulation so in my opinion this will be upgraded!

I really don't understand why you derampers are here, if you're not invested and don't believe in this share why do you bother, and please don't tell me it's to protect the vulnerable.

Keep up the good work moneymunch, you are stating it as it is, soon we shall see and this will all unfold. SS has years of experience, he is no fool and is building a good foundation of a great company.

[moneymunch] 07/6/2016 09:10

Lol bears like you.....:-)))

The pervious Nutech and Schlumberger billion barrel assessment was made before the stunning free flow from the Kimmeridge limestones and so it's very likely the one expected now will be an upgrade in all aspects. Gla holders , the bashers are determined to deter....:-)


Way Forward 21/3/16

Given these exceptional results, the Company has commissioned Nutech to investigate a possible upgrade to the oil in place ("OIP") calculated within all 3 test zones together with engineering studies to examine possible flow rates from a horizontal well. Reservoir engineering analyses by Nutech and Xodus are also underway, and will likely result in an estimation of potential recoverable volumes.

Results of these studies will be reported shortly.

Preparation is now underway to obtain regulatory permissions to conduct extended production tests from all 3 zones at the site, followed by a horizontal sidetrack in the Kimmeridge and a possible new Portland development well.

[funkmasterp12] 07/6/2016 08:53

Hence why bears like me are needed to balance out his nonsense :)

[beebong1] 07/6/2016 08:49

moneymunch

Yet again a statement without substance.

"the imminent reserves upgrade from Nutech and Xodus"

You do not know it will be an upgrade.

It could well be a downgrade so yet again you are misleading people.

For all we know it will be a downgrade and that is why the reports have been delayed. We just don't know. We can all have an opinion but you keep reporting these things as facts when in fact they are all suppositions on your part.

[funkmasterp12] 07/6/2016 08:47

Yeah it's all there. So are their business fundamentals - $8m market cap. Not even the Yanks are mad enough to believe anything good will come of it all.

[moneymunch] 07/6/2016 08:41

Read their SEC filing numptie, it's all there, if they don't raise cash now they will be delisted from NASDAQ. Gla ;-)

[funkmasterp12] 07/6/2016 08:41

And if UKOG buy MPETs share for £1m, for example, that values HH-1 at about £2.5m.UKOG is capitalised at £40m odd so it instantly values the business on an astronomic multiple. Based on what?The company generates tiny revenues, cannot generate cash currently and is operating on hope alone. The share price would, and should, crater. Try getting a fund raise to put the well into production then...It's suicide, as I've said repeatedly.

[funkmasterp12] 07/6/2016 08:35

MPET need cash now... so they'll talk down their prize asset...I suppose that logic makes sense in UKOG ramper world :)

[moneymunch] 07/6/2016 08:20

KIMMERIDGE LIMESTONE OIL PRODUCTION

Can be produced with low visual impact
-
12-24 wells in 4-6 acre site
-
Wells and pumps below ground level
-
Control production to reduce initial road tanker impact
-
Can be located in brown field sites and away from villages, houses, small roads

KIMMERIDGE LIMESTONE OIL PLAN TO 2018

The journey has just begun
-
Consolidate and increase licences holding in Weald Basin - control the Kimmeridge Oil play
-
Bring Horse Hill/Gatwick Gusher to production
-
3x 90 day production tests (2016)
-
3D seismic (2017)
-
Horizontal production wells (2017)
-
Show HH-1 resources can be repeated to south and west in the Basin sweet-spots

Holmwood-1 well (2016/17

2 others identified wells (2017/18)

[beebong1] 07/6/2016 08:02

"With respect to the Horse Hill-1 well, the recent publicly announced results of the flow tests are encouraging, but material risks remain before this well can be assessed as a producing well and reserves estimated."

IMO Magellan told it as it is as they are selling otherwise they could be misinterpreting the value of the asset by ramping the f out of it like some PI's have!!!

[moneymunch] 07/6/2016 06:57

Lol funky, get in now and enjoy the ride ......HH ain't no duster, the free flow of the sweetest crude is the highest ever recorded from any wild cat UK onshore well, including Wytch Farm whose peak production hit 110,000bopd by the time the field was developed. HH and the rest of the Weald will potentially be far bigger given the extended area the Kimmeridge interval covers in comparison to Wytch Farm's reservoir, and is very likely of national significance and full market appreciation will arrive, sooner or later. Gla holders, On and Up!!! ;-)

[funkmasterp12] 07/6/2016 06:45

My "incessant negativity' is nothing to do with being envious of Lenigas. He's not even a board member here now (...). It's because this company is sucking in punters who, like you, think this is an amazing "transformational" opportunity when it patently isn't. I've seen it before recently countless times - Quindell, Globo, Fitbug, Jubilee, 88E etc etc. I'm just hoping if some people read my posts they'll do proper analysis before piling in and losing money.You can't be objective because you're clearly heavily long. I can, and I can see this is going nowhere short term.

[moneymunch] 07/6/2016 06:28

Lol funky, not as laughable as your incessant negativity, driven by your envy and jealousy of DL........Mpet's summary on HH relates to their desperate need for cash and survival as a Nasdaq listed small cap explorer and so of course at this stage prior to the defining 3 x 90 day prouction flowtests ( ie 270 days ), they can't rely on any revenue from HH and they will not have any cash for their share of development.....hence their decision to sell their assets and most likely relinquish their other Weald license blocks or give them up very cheaply indeed, given they have only 23 days before drill or drop.

Ukog's fund raise is no different to the majority of other Aim listed fund raisings, always initially painful for existing shareholders when discounted, but the drop in share price is only temporary given the prospects and development plans that shareholders and new investors can look forward from a fully funded Ukog, with news very likely on further acquisition of % interest at HH etc and the game changing Nutech/Xodus reserves upgrade and the Weald's billion barrel potential.

Transformational upside potential, and a rare risk reward opportunity from this bargain low. Gla holders a sudden and significant rise in share price more than likely. ;-)))

[funkmasterp12] 06/6/2016 23:12

LOL MPET have summarised it pretty well:With respect to the Horse Hill-1 well, the recent publicly announced results of the flow tests are encouraging, but material risks remain before this well can be assessed as a producing well and reserves estimated.And they own 35% of it! Absolutely laughable imo.

[funkmasterp12] 06/6/2016 23:07

Again, that presentation was part of an effort to raise money, at a discount, seriously diluting existing holders and now leaving a massive overhang.Quelle surprise, no holding RNSs today. The shares were more than likely placed to flippers who have sold into market makers waiting for mugs to buy in. People on LSE are wondering why their buys are being classed as sells - because the stated prices are not correct, the market makers want to offload excess stock and will do so at cheaper prices.That is why a (commissioned!) Nutech study won't move the price, even if it basically said the Weald was a giant puddle of oil. There's too much stock in the way. Sorry, but the longs wanted UKOG to buy MPET or to put further tests into production. This needs cash, which UKOG does not have in abundance. If HH is the opportunity promised, it'll come to pass eventually - but by that point holders now will have been diluted to smithereens.Wait it out if you're interested in buying, you'll be able to get in cheaper. Guaranteed.

[moneymunch] 06/6/2016 22:59

Mpet's latest SEC filing ( today ), which once again reiterates their intention to monitize their 35% HH and other Weald Interests.....news of their disposal imminent. gl ;-)

Magellan Petroleum Corporation

NOTICE OF ANNUAL AND SPECIAL MEETING OF STOCKHOLDERS
To be held on Wednesday, July 13, 2016

With respect to the Company’s interests in the licenses covering the Weald Basin, these licenses are due to expire on June 30, 2016, because the work commitment to drill a well, specifically at Broadford Bridge, has not been met.

These licenses are also encumbered by pending litigation with the co-owner of these licenses, Celtique Energie Weald Limited (“Celtique Energie”). With respect to the Horse Hill-1 well, the recent publicly announced results of the flow tests are encouraging, but material risks remain before this well can be assessed as a producing well and reserves estimated.

Based on the preceding considerations, the Special Committee believes that while the monetization of some or all of these assets should allow Magellan to continue to operate on a limited basis and satisfy its remaining financial obligations for a substantial period of time following the completion of the Exchange, none is likely to provide ongoing revenue in the near term. The Special Committee recognizes that there are risks and uncertainties involved in attempting to monetize these assets. The Special Committee also believes that Magellan’s public platform is of potential additional value which could be realized through a merger or similar business combination transaction with another company. The Special Committee believes that such a transaction could benefit the stockholders by (i) addressing the Company’s current liquidity constraints, (ii) bringing new assets, a new strategy, and a new management team, and (iii) leveraging the Company’s existing reporting infrastructure and simplified balance sheet. The Special Committee believes that this strategy can be executed in a timely manner and would permit Magellan’s existing shareholders to benefit from the appreciation potential of the new combined entity. Following the Exchange, Magellan will have no debt and limited liabilities, and will therefore, the Special Committee believes, be attractive to private companies and international entities interested in gaining access to the U.S. capital markets.

In addition, to maximize its chances of executing this strategy and identifying an attractive business combination candidate, Magellan is actively seeking to monetize its interests in the Weald Basin licenses and the Horse Hill-1 well and any related assets. The Special Committee believes that converting these assets into cash will make Magellan more attractive to potential merger candidates as we de-risk and clarify the valuation of the Company’s remaining assets. In pursuit of this strategy, on May 19, 2016, Magellan sold to Macquarie Bank Limited for AUD $3.45 million all the Company’s rights to certain bonus payments related to the Mereenie field located in the Amadeus Basin in Australia.

The potential sale of the Company’s interests in the Weald Basin and the related settlement of its litigation with Celtique Energie would further enhance the Company’s profile by reducing the uncertainties
associated with those interests. The Company believes that the receipt of proceeds from the monetization of the above-listed assets could be accomplished in the relatively near future and could result in proceeds being received by the Company that are materially greater than the current equity market capitalization of the Company as of the date of this proxy statement, although the amount and timing of such proceeds, if any, are uncertain. The terms, timing, and availability of a possible post-Exchange merger or other business combination transaction are similarly uncertain and subject to numerous risks, including the risk that we will be unable to identify, negotiate, and complete a transaction with a suitable counterparty.