UK Coal Share Discussion Threads

[chadders] 11/1/2011 16:38

Not a bad finish, gentle upward trend continuing.

[its the oxman] 11/1/2011 11:44

yep - tend to agree - even scope to double here if it all proves and crucially stays as positive as we think re coal pricing going forward. bit more approval for the land bank might add as well. next update will be very interesting

[chadders] 11/1/2011 10:17

Topped up again this am. I reckon a half decent trading update before the end of the month could consolidate the upward trend and we may even see the 75p broker target. DYOR etc.

[its the oxman] 11/1/2011 08:13

also bought a few for a punt - hope to see it over 50p soon

[chadders] 10/1/2011 17:09

Added a few more this afternoon. Can only see upside from here DYOR et.

[spob] 10/1/2011 16:00

no worries

[envirovision] 10/1/2011 15:50

bought some bisi today

thanks for the FT i have copied it there if thats ok with you spob

[spob] 10/1/2011 15:27

Commodities daily: Forgotten energy

By Javier Blas

FT

10 Jan 2011

For many investors, oil and natural gas are the only energy commodities.

But thermal coal, used to fire power stations, is also important even if it is often overlooked.

Don't get me wrong, oil is still the most important source of energy, but rather than concentrating only on whether its price its $100 a barrel, investors should also pay attention to whether thermal coal prices continue their climb up towards records.

Thermal coal is still the main source of electricity around the world. For example, China, the world's biggest energy consumer, relies on it for more than 80 per cent of its electricity supplies; Japan, around 65 per cent, and the US, for nearly 40 per cent.

The cost of thermal coal in the Australian port city of Newcastle, a benchmark in the coal-dependent region of Asia, has risen above $130 a tonne, the highest in two years.

Worse, senior mining executives and traders say that annual contracts, which run April-April because they are set on the basis of the Japanese fiscal year, could rise as high as $140 a tonne, an all-time high, above the record of $125 a tonne set in 2008.

The chatter about record prices is well above the forecast from most City of London analysts, who are forecasting annual contract prices of $115-$125 a tonne. The negotiations for the 2011-12 year with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are about to start and traders believe they are going to be one of the most difficult ever.

The increase in thermal coal annual prices, which affect around 40-50 per cent of the seaborne trade of coal, will put pressure on electricity prices across the world, particularly in Asia, where coal is the main energy commodity to fire power stations.

The flooding in Queensland state in Australia is partly behind the spike, but there are other elements at play related to unusual heavy rains. Wet weather in Colombia, South Africa and Indonesia has also curtailed production in those key exporters. Meanwhile, demand is strong, with China and India buying more and more overseas.

For investors, a lack of thermal coal futures means that it is difficult to gain exposure easily to rising prices.

True, sophisticated investors could turn to thermal coal swaps, with several banks involved in the trade of private, bilateral over-the-counter financial contracts.

Beyond, equities are the only source of exposure, with companies from London-listed Xstrata to New York-listed Peabody. But the array of equity investment will increase this year with the arrival of two key companies to the London market: Bumi, the Indonesian thermal coal exporter, which is listing in the UK through Vallar, the London-listed cash shell founded by financier Nat Rothschild; and the flotation mid year of Glencore, the trader which is a powerhouse in coal.

[eric76] 10/1/2011 14:31

Good post Warbaby if you don't mind me saying.
I guess fast rising coal prices don't get the same press as rising gold or silver prices but a near on 40% rise in three months should reflect well in their numbers and end Jan is only a couple of weeks away too.
Looking forward to the upgrades.

[lidad66] 10/1/2011 12:02

will be interesting to get the full year update as year end was 31st dec for production see how close they got to the totals predicted i see around 7 mill with the good production from daw and thoresby and opencast.

[ivancampo] 07/1/2011 15:55

ok good luck, added earlier sub 42.

[evianone] 07/1/2011 14:55

Ivan
I'm out at 42.5 didn't like the chart on wed and this afternoon sells may be wrong if so will buy back in if not I hope to buy lower.

[loafofbread] 07/1/2011 08:26

During the Hargreaves/UKC talks blackrock built a 5% position (from the rns) in Ukc.

[eric76] 07/1/2011 08:22

BlackRock's Rice Sees Coal Stocks Doubling With Oil Topping $100 This Year.

BlackRock Inc.'s Daniel Rice, who beat 99.9 percent of U.S. stock-fund managers over the past decade, said an expanding global economy will probably push oil prices above $100 this year.

The gain may lift shares of oil and gas companies by 25 to 30 percent and help double the price of coal stocks, the manager of the $1.5 billion BlackRock Energy & Resources Fund forecast in an interview in his Boston office. His biggest concern, Rice said, is what happens if oil rises even higher.....

[evianone] 06/1/2011 21:03

ivan
Agree but we did get a number of sales today and one large one of over 312,000
looking at yesterdays candle stick it was a sale, hope your right

[ivancampo] 06/1/2011 19:24

evian,

maybe but if they must be close to disclosing again. Bit better volume today so buyers happy buying at 43 is a good sign, still think this is on the cusp of a big spike. Trading update due within 2 weeks if previous years are an indicator - positive news here would take this into the 50's and beyond. Stayed above 200 day MA for a couple of sessions, 50 day curving up so set to make golden cross in next week or so.

I note no updates from RM....perhaps the stategy under new regime is not to allow any such news to leak out, good ar bad.....

[evianone] 06/1/2011 09:43

ivan, seller is back from holiday 100,000 just sold is this UBS?

[envirovision] 06/1/2011 09:21

Australia supplies around 35% of the worlds coking coal.

[eric76] 06/1/2011 09:10

Coal does seem to be hot after the Aussie floods. Seems quite a spike in world prices is expected?

[bainsey] 06/1/2011 08:22

Time to buy :O)

[walloon3] 05/1/2011 11:14

"any chart views?"

Yes, its been consistently breaking short term downtrends for last month or so.

I have the following next 10 downtrends above us that are resistance:

Days Price % Distance
150 44.22 -3.9
153 44.17 -3.8
166 43.94 -3.3
209 43.89 -3.2
246 43.85 -3.1
156 43.82 -3.0
320 43.77 -2.9
403 43.72 -2.8
405 43.7 -2.7
166 42.93 -0.9

The above are all auto-calculated by a program I wrote, but you can see there are a lot of *long term* trends from as far back as 405 days ago which we are close to. The good thing is that breaking through such long term downtrends usually provides a decent further rise.

I can also see the 45p-ish peak you can see on the Java chart at the top of this page as a strong resistance point. Then its even longer term downtrends above us (600 day ish).

But a break of the long term downtrends at 43/44, IMHO, is the sign that this is changing trend proper, at least mid-term, and should unlock the 50-60p range.

Finally, it should be noted that the we are above the top Ichimoku cloud for quite a while now, which is my overall signal for going long on a stock.

But then its all conjecture eh!

[evianone] 04/1/2011 23:33

thanks ivan lets hope for a statement soon

[ivancampo] 04/1/2011 17:56

Today's move takes us through the 200day MA, looks like a good sign to me , any chart views?

evian,

been watching this very closely on level 2 for what seems like months now, certainly pre-xmas sell orders have been worked through, but still a bit of stock on offer today at these higher prices. IMO everything in place for a strong recovery so hoping for more positive news to act as a catalyst, would be much higher if not for Kellingley setback.

More Director buys would obviously help plus an update from RM!