UK Coal Share Discussion Threads

[ivancampo] 17/1/2011 09:04

Added again.

[chadders] 17/1/2011 09:00

There's no harm in a good old shake first thing in the morning!

[gripfit] 17/1/2011 08:52

a good old fashioned bid would be nice oldytown. !!

[oldtown] 17/1/2011 08:47

A rush and a push and we will be back.
Simple good old fashioned value.

[envirovision] 17/1/2011 08:42

Brings home the cold light of day though doesn't it, when you read the debt situation here, coupled with ongoing property right downs. Lucky they never made reference to the pension deficit, otherwise I dont think you would have been paying 49p for them beeks.

Profits from here are mostly in BISI now.

[beeks of arabia] 17/1/2011 08:36

Small top up at 49.38.

How the hell I got them at that price is beyond me!

[gripfit] 17/1/2011 08:31

W D F??;O(((

[oldtown] 17/1/2011 08:16

Yep just added another few (not showing). Recovering nicely.

[loafofbread] 17/1/2011 07:57

Have to agree. 7.2mt even with all the problems.

9.2mt this year based on 4th qtr. How bloody amazing would that be!

Highest coal price for 2 years and production on a role and at last someone who knows what hes doing in charge of the property.

[beeks of arabia] 17/1/2011 07:53

Superb trading statement, considering the Kellingley issues.

Onwards and upwards

[jacks13] 15/1/2011 21:06

Revised per Warbaby43's advice, taken from 2010 interim report and ignoring '10(h2).
Total (2011-15)
million tonnes

Fully floating § 3.7
Floating within caps and floors * 6.4
Fixed, subject to indexation † 1.2
Fixed, not subject to indexation 10.4
Total 21.7

§ Fully floating tonnage is priced upon API#2, the industry benchmark price for NW Europe, plus a delivery premium.
* Caps and floor prices are subject to indexation.
† Indexation will be RPI based.

Can we organise a sweepstake for the best estimate of 2011 revenue?

[spob] 15/1/2011 20:19

Thanks guys

Yes, I'm a lazy git sometimes, but got 27 companies to keep tabs on atm, so understandable

[warbaby43] 15/1/2011 18:21

Methinks there are some lazy so-and-sos hereabouts who are not doing even the most basic research and making use of the abundant material UKC places in the public domain. They provide exemplary annual and interim reports and on P13 of the 2010 Interim Report there is set out full detail on coal tonnage contracted to the generators together with a table giving indicative contract prices including tonnage at fully floating and at legacy contract prices. Suffice it to say here that those tables only go up to an API2 of £3 gj with the present level of c £3.48 clearly being beyond their wildest hopes as recently as last August.

With regard to the legacy contracts I would refer the comrades to P7 of UKC's Presentation to Analysts slides of the 2010 Interim Results, available from the UKC website (go to "Investors" and then select "Company Presentations".) This indicates ""older contracts included above at average sales price c £1.66 gj" H2 2010 2.9mt 2011 2.2mt and 2012 0.4mt.

Incidentally, before too much drooling commences over present price levels and prospective UKC prices (my own estimate for 2011 is around £60 -63 per tonne) I would just remind fellow shareholders that the new contracts were negotiated at the same time as the generator loans with £32m being due to be repaid this year and £50m in 2012. As a shareholder for over 11 years I would also remind my brothers that this is UKC so we may be sure and certain that there will be something round the corner to bite us hard on the ass, usually something gelogical.

[jacks13] 14/1/2011 17:55

muckshifter- thanks

I've found this in the 2009 interim report which confirms what you say.


Total (2011-15)
million tonnes

Fully floating § 2.7
Floating within caps and floors * 6.9
Fixed, subject to indexation † 1.3
Fixed, not subject to indexation 9.5
Total 20.4

§ Fully floating tonnage is priced upon API#2, the industry benchmark price for NW Europe, plus a delivery premium.
* Caps and floor prices are subject to indexation.
† Indexation will be RPI based.

[muckshifter] 14/1/2011 17:08

The outstanding contractual tonnages over the next few years are approx 10m tonnes of nasty fixed price to 2015, 1.2Mt of fairly nasty fixed price but indexed to RPI over the next two years, and 6.4 Mt variable price with a cap on how high the price can go, and a floor price below which it can't go to 2015.
Regards.

[jacks13] 14/1/2011 16:50

I don't have the numbers to hand but I believe H2 production was in excess of 4.0 million tonnes so assuming there are no production holdups in the deep mines and no green activist sit-ins in 2011 then 8.6 million tonnes may be achievable. As for price that could also be north of £3.00/GJ.
In which case significant debt paydown and investment in and the reopening of Harworth Colliery may be on the cards. Fingers crossed!

[chadders] 14/1/2011 16:25

Hopefully we'll get some coverage in the weekend press. Certainly the rising price of coal is a hot topic at the moment.

[jacks13] 14/1/2011 16:06

spob - 2250

Chairman's Statement 2009 Annual Report:
'.......we have a slightly larger volume of older contracts than was originally expected. At the end of 2009, an amount of 6.8 million tonnes, at an average sales price of circa £1.63/GJ was left to be delivered, of which 4.2 million tonnes is due for delivery in 2010.'

So assuming the 4.2 million tonnes were delivered in 2010 there remains 2.6 million tonnes to be delivered in 2011 at the old price. A rough estimate based on a total production of 7.6 million tonnes would be:

2.6 mT x 24 GJ/T x £1.63/GJ + 5.0 mT x 24 GJ/mT x £2.75/GJ(?) = £432m

If you want to take a rose tinted view based on a total production of 8.6 million tonnes and a market price of £3.00/GJ then turnover on the mining activity would be:

2.6 mT x 24 GJ/T x £1.63/GJ + 6.0 mT x 24 GJ/mT x £3.00/GJ(?) = £534m

[lidad66] 14/1/2011 15:47

about 2.4 mill left i believe

[spob] 14/1/2011 15:22

Anyone have details of remaining legacy contracts off hand ?

before i start delving

[jacks13] 14/1/2011 13:27

paxman - 2248

8.5 m tonnes might be a bit optimistic and there is still an overhang of low priced legacy contracts to work through. I can't however offer any figures of my own. The trading update on the 28th will probably shed some light though.

PS Have a look at Warbaby43's recent posts on the iii site. He seems to be pretty clued up where UKC are concerned

[paxman] 14/1/2011 11:51

Say UKC produce 8.5 m tonnes of coal selling at £62 a tonne = £527m revenue with £350m operating costs then £177m operating profit in 2011.

Any thoughts on those figures?

[quepassa] 14/1/2011 10:32

The incredible rise in the price of Thermal coal and Coking coal combined with an ever-increasing international demand for this commodity plus a particularly severe Winter in the UK has created near perfect conditions for UKC to prosper.

The market is re-rating UKC and the share continues to look undervalued in my view on prospective earnings rebased on exponentially higher coal prices.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP