U And I Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 14/12/2020 09:04

Massive 3p spread

[solarno lopez] 09/12/2020 16:45

Incisive question

[spectoacc] 09/12/2020 16:41

Up or down?

[jl9] 09/12/2020 16:39

This is will do 40-60% in next three months.

[jl9] 09/12/2020 16:36

Sphere25 . your capitulation = buy in big time!

[spectoacc] 23/11/2020 11:56

No idea, would expect an RNS if so, irrespective of non-recourse debt.

[hybrasil] 22/11/2020 13:29

Press report that a receiver has been appointed to two of their Dublin developments

[hugepants] 16/11/2020 10:05

19th January 2021 for interim results!?

[spectoacc] 13/11/2020 16:24

Hmm not so much - a little from UANC tho IMO.

[hugepants] 13/11/2020 16:14

Any read across here from GFRD? Its up 27% on positive agm statement.

[epistrophy] 13/11/2020 11:59

On a more serious note, I think their project level debt is generally non-recourse to UAI, so there is "embedded" optionality here, which ought to be quite valuable in this sort of market and could provide serious upside if things recover.

[epistrophy] 13/11/2020 11:38

'shovel-ready schemes' ... no comment!

[spectoacc] 13/11/2020 11:16

NAV clearly going to take a (geared) hit, but agree it will still be at a multiple.

Impressed with that "extreme downside scenario", haven't seen many plan that thoroughly. And since then:

"Matthew Weiner, Chief Executive Officer at U+I, said:

"Following on from such a challenging period, it has been a good start to the year for U+I where we have focused on progressing and realising value from our existing portfolio, reaching key milestones across a number of our major regeneration projects, priming them for delivery. Securing the largest single Government grant at Mayfield in Manchester is testament to the quality of our schemes and alignment with Government's Build, Build, Build agenda, prioritising 'shovel-ready' schemes that will benefit local communities and economies. This grant also reinforces the relevance of our business model in the UK's post Covid-19 economic plan which, combined with the momentum we have seen at the start of FY2021 and continued progress in our efficiencies programme, give us confidence in the long term outlook for U+I."

[hugepants] 13/11/2020 09:49

Last NAV I can find is 232p. That was at year end March 2020.
Probably significantly less when the upcoming interims are released? Still with share price at 61p it should still be multiples of the current price.
I think they should be OK as long as the vaccine heralds a strong rebound in the economy.

In the accounts they do present an extreme downside scenario which would be problematic if it were to occur;


"In considering the Group's adoption of the going concern basis, the Group's business model was stress-tested to produce a severe but plausible downside scenario over the short term, to simulate the impact of a deterioration in both economic and market conditions. Consideration was given to the following:

- Property valuations fall by a further 30% over the next twelve months and the resultant impact upon gearing covenants and cash levels if cash collateralisation of a loan facility is required.

- No new business opportunities are entered into over the next five years - hence the only profits and related cash that can be generated are from existing schemes and the majority of projects monetise over a five year period, subject to an appropriate delay over the next twelve months relating to the potential impact of Covid-19 on investment markets.

- Debt facilities were stress-tested to see how much property valuations would need to fall before loan covenants would be breached and how much cash would be required to cure any loan covenant defaults.

- Rent collection rates are severely reduced for the next twelve months as a result of the economic lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.

- Other than contracted receipts, there are no significant cash generating disposals over the next twelve months. Following which disposals proceed on a more regular basis i.e. deferral rather than loss of receipt.

- Consideration was given to whether the factors above enabled debt facilities to be repaid when they fall due.


Only the specific severe but plausible scenario detailed above would indicate the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt about the Group's ability to continue as a going concern."

[sphere25] 10/11/2020 14:58

I have no expertise on that matter. Follow the buying and benefit where possible. I mean it all sounds positive but is it? Seen so many listed pharma ones make positive noises and then when it comes to the final approval, they get clobbered.

Just wary of waking up one morning and the futures are marked down big because the news wasn't as expected, then it's all manic chaos to sell. I can't take big risks on something like that. Imagine being leveraged up in some of these high risk names and then news like that happens.

Clearly it could be smooth sailing from here and then it's much bigger gains but that's the nature of the beast - high risk, high reward. Everyone has a different risk-reward profile, but ultimately folk will do what works for them, and if it works - well done, keep doing more of it!

Prepared for both scenarios..... and the good news is that...

this hasn't even fallen back yet!

Hip hip...

Anywho, interesting times ahead.

Good luck here folks. Let's see how it goes.

[spectoacc] 10/11/2020 14:31

It categorically isn't the vaccine :) But the actual one may well be along shortly. And whilst the market thinks it's the one, best to go along with it.

[spectoacc] 10/11/2020 12:22

As well as the similar name, there's a hint of UANC about them with the resi side/borrowing from the govnt grant scheme. That's got to be worth some discount closing, once UANC's gone to the bidder.

Rent collection at UAI was OK (74%, if being very generous), but the development side where it's at IMO.

[checkers2] 10/11/2020 12:18

As long as equity holders remain equity holders and risk would be broken debt convenants don't eat up all the equity I suppose.

They seem to be quite creative with their use of land, so I suppose any unused retail space could be converted to other uses.

[spectoacc] 10/11/2020 11:55

Ha ha I think it's def on the trashy side - lots of undelivered management promises, a little too much debt, delays to projects and sales (even pre-Covid). But - by golly it's cheap. If you accept it's not going bust, at some point it'll be twice the current c.59.5p IMO.

[checkers2] 10/11/2020 11:44

How trashy is UAI do you think Spectoacc? Your impression of risk/reward?

[spectoacc] 10/11/2020 10:08

Not so far, but if anyone ought to benefit from a "dash for trash", it's UAI ;)