Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[pcok] 16/11/2010 16:18

Why are we getting wacked?

[niceyman1] 16/11/2010 13:02

Treeshake ! i.m.o
I don,t think its going to be long before CNOOC come back to Kosmos with improved offer for jubilee stake?

[jeddicat] 16/11/2010 12:26

Oh! I forgot to mention, re the ii article (Pasted above), at the end she
quotes other 'Plays' that we have, up to Ghana, there was no UGANDA mentioned??

Mmmmmm!

[jeddicat] 16/11/2010 12:23

Has anybody seen any news on TLW, because at around 1100hrs, I didn't check the time, the share price jumped from -25p to -35p, then moved up to -40p???

Regards,

David

[acamas] 15/11/2010 10:29

I can see why they might be pushing Premier strong in North Sea and following Dana must be a very strong potential takeover target for some hungry national oil company

[bushwhacker] 15/11/2010 10:20

I have just received a report on this well update from Numis Securities.
The well was not the best find - not very commercial it seems, however it was not a dry well!!
I think Numis must be on their own with their valuation, it seems they prefer Enquest and Premier Oil to Tullow!

Current Share Price 1,236p
Target Price 1,161p
Market Capitalisation £11.0bn
Shares In Issue 888m
RIC/BLBG TLW.L/TLW LN
Avg. Daily Volume (3M) 2,622,711

[edmondj] 15/11/2010 09:05

"We are so used to these well reports that they hardly stir the blood."

Perhaps also, blobs of African political risk have become congealed in it.

[jeddicat] 15/11/2010 08:49

Acamas - Yes, I think you are right, because despite all the general market reasons, Ireland, China and asia, greece etc. I expected a rise today after the 26p drop last Friday in the 15-20p region.

Still, we have time, first two weeks in December should be good.

[niceyman1] 15/11/2010 08:48

This is great news !As with Tullow it normally takes a little while to sink in before we see a gradual rise in shareprice. Althought only 10% is tullow,s this will help with resource extimations and derisking other prospects.
I,ll be interested in the comments by brokers later and expect them to up targets! i.m.o

[acamas] 15/11/2010 07:54

We are so used to these well reports that they hardly stir the blood. Sad but true! Tullow is one hell of a success story in oil exploration

[jeddicat] 15/11/2010 07:19

RNS - Well Update!

Good News, I am surprised there are no comments on here already this morning.

[jeddicat] 14/11/2010 08:07

eipgam - Agreed, and we should not forget that Heritage took advice from no
less than THREE top lawyers from the US, UK & Uganda. All three determined that the CTG was NOT legal!

[eipgam] 12/11/2010 12:27

aca... snap(ish)! The phone rang half way through typing that post....

[eipgam] 12/11/2010 12:27

Jo... I have followed this transaction with a great deal of interest being a holder of both companies (as are many)...

TLW did not want ENI as a partner (fact) and therefore exercised their pre-emption rights to match the deal HOIL had agreed with ENI. They then swiftly revealed that TOTAL and CNOOC were their preferred equal share partners in this field.

As I understand it, the majority of the tax is not due to UG and I anticipate that arbitration, or some other process, will eventually confirm this.

Aidan Heaveys televised interview, posted here a few days ago, gives a decent overview.

[acamas] 12/11/2010 12:19

I do not think they wanted to work with ENI. They saw an opportunity to bring in two outfits with whom they have been connected in other parts of Africa and which had been a successful operation.

Sadly it has hit a temporary buffer thanks to the UG focus on cash in hand rather than potential profit from billions of barrels in the ground. They are employing a sledgehammer to crack a nut, silly billy's

[jojo_jo] 12/11/2010 12:13

I don't know the exact details, but what otherwise was the rush to buy Heritage's stake? The only thing I can think of is the UG were insisting on additional infrastructure (refinery/pipeline/etc) which was beyond Tullow's area of expertise. Either way the rush is costing them dear, and further delay in resolving the issue could cost them far more.
Perhaps they should pay up, put it down to experience and move on.

[muckshifter] 12/11/2010 12:03

Very easy to make that sort of criticism of Tullow, but I believe what Tullow has said, which is that they are not making a profit out of selling on the proportion of Heritage licenses.
The fact is that they have set up a top notch team with all the resources and expertise needed to make the best of Ugandan oil resources, to the benefit of the team members and the Ugandan people, but the tax dispute is stopping progress. I would suggest that they know the industry better than us and if they believed that, for whatever reason, they could achieve a far better result for all interested parties, by pre emption and bringing in the right team, they are probably correct.

We have no way of knowing about the license extension failure. Heritage were the operator of the license in question, and may well have applied for the extension (which would clearly be their responsibility as operator), but found their application "disqualified" by their asset sale, or Tullow may have applied as the buyer and found their application disqualified on some similar pretext, ie. "you are not the operator until the government accepts that the deal is concluded".

Unfortunately we cannot be told the full story, as this would almost certainly impede the possibility of negotiating calmly to a reasonable conclusion.

No idea how corrupt the UG is, but it is worth always remembering that to a corrupt government, a bird in the hand is always worth more than one in a bush, as you may be gone before the one in the bush is ready for eating.
Regards.

[eipgam] 12/11/2010 11:19

Jo, I think there has been a company statement to say that they did not sell the HOIL stake on at a profit. There was/is/may be an influx of funds due to the fact that they bought HOILs 50% and intend to sell 33.3% each to Total and CNOOC at the same pro rata price.

I think....

[jojo_jo] 12/11/2010 11:04

Simple answer...

Caveat emptor.

The fact is Tullow were being greedy, and in such a rush to buy Heritage's stake (to sell on at a good profit), they looked under the bonnet and checked the fuel tank, but didn't notice a wheel had fallen off. They are paying the price. They can't force Heritage to pay - only the UG themselves can chase that. They were partners with Heritage, so were at least equally responsible for ensuring licenses etc were up-to-date (more so considering they intended staying put). Due diligence, what due diligence? A shabby job for sure.

[jeddicat] 12/11/2010 07:46

I'm not quite sure that I understand the bit about the 'plot' that did not have its licence renewed in February, and UG's threat to auction it off, thus giving an entry point for ENI!

The thing is, the deal with Heritage took place in July this year and we paid thme the money. Now the contracts for these 'deals' are made at top level, and everything is usually covered by the lawyers. It is said that TLW did not do proper DD, the question there is how deep should dd go vis-a-vis renewels etc. Because surely it was the duty of Heritage to keep everthing in order, including keeping licences you are selling in date, this is a bit like me selling you my car, and not checking that the engine is under the bonnet before I hand it over to you.

Therefore, I would ask if there is any negligence on the Heritage side?

[jojo_jo] 12/11/2010 01:05

I wouldn't be surprised to see the UG increase the CGT (or introduce some new tax) on the sell-on to CNOOC and Total, to recover the CGT moneys they say is owed. This at least would enable Tullow to save face, whilst giving the UG enough extra tax to compensate for the loss of the Heritage CGT. It would also give the UG more taxes from subsequent/future sell-ons etc, a negative ultimately for Tullow. The UG would also have the option to still go after Heritage via arbitration or negotiation.

[wodahsnoom] 11/11/2010 20:35

Looks like the game has changed and TLW are digging their heels in. Jeddicat, I agree - even ENI pushing brown envelopes would not want to get on the wrong side of two majors and must be thinking if they did take the blocks from TLW, how long would it be before UG changes the rules on them. Time is ticking away as the elections get closer..... who blinks first

[jeddicat] 11/11/2010 20:27

I hope that on the quiet, TLW are talking to all the other Oilers in the region and elsewhere.

I hope, they will all come to the conclusion that the West & the rest, will NOT allow fiasco's like this current one, with jumpted up tin pot Dictators, win this argument. Quite clearly, it is a case of Tullow today, and the rest tomorrow, only 'the rest' will be bartering about 'Billions' od Dollars not 1/2 million!
I am sure that a legal challenge can be take, and then we move into samctions etc, but thats another story.

Tullow should not be whispering to the Ugandan 'other political' parties and advising them of the mess this Dictator is getting the country in, goodies delayed etc. With a bit of support they might oust him.

Must rush.

Regards,

David