Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 18:19

Guyana blocksare also highly attractive and for ex. Orinduik we have a high % ownership in one of hottest exploration areas globally. Maybe a major is interested in farming down. If TLW pulls this off this is going to multi bag.

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 18:17

From LSE Tornatony

Tornadotony

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 532

Price: 12.00

No Opinion

Tullow issues13 Mar 2020 12:54
1. The RBL re-determination and agreement set out by management is decided end of March. The probability of acceptance in the light of the company actions is likely to be given. It is of course reviewed again in September which is the real crunch meeting.
2. The company needs to show where it has generated income towards $1B by 31 December. This is where some analysts question the credibility. Some of you may have picked up that the maximum share on any exploration block is being reduced to 30%. So some of the Guyana blocks are getting sold down to that level. We know Kenya blocks are on the market and a good outcome is above $600M. Anyone looking long term beyond the current oil dispute would see the asset as attractive as production is on 2023 prices and who is to say if oil is $80 that year or $60. It certainly wont be $38 a barrel. If the company fell short but delivered $750M the Debt levels drop to $2050M against. If they get a Uganda farm down through they are home and dry.
3. The COVID-19 issue would be clear cut by September. Progress to vaccine availability would be more visible. Managing infection waves, picking up second wave clusters through rapid monitoring will be in the tool box or should be at that time. I put Coronavirus on the lower band of risk and a lot of economic stimulus measures also help.
4. Putin and the Saudi are already getting a lot of what they hope they would achieve. Some sources suggest oil prices to gradually move back up to $40 a barrel after July 2020. This price is above Tullow's $38 price model. The 2021 projection is a price on $50. Although these are not brilliant positions for Tullow. The company if $1B of assets gets sold will have achieved a repayment of all 2021 debt and effectively covered the 2022 debts that are due. The company is also more attractive to a buy out if Uganda farm down has been realised. Effectively it would be a company heading back to 350 2P resource with debts below $2M and asset profile above $3.5B.

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 18:17

Ive listened to the webcast twice now and it seems to me that several times senior management appear confident that they will raise MORE than 1 billion in asset sales outside Ghana.

Does anybody else agree?

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 18:14

That big trade was interesting, a shorter closing and the price went from 7.57p - 9.57p

[john09] 16/3/2020 18:07

It already is below 30

[costax1654x] 16/3/2020 18:01

With oil soon below 30...what else can you cut!?

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 17:23

looking at capex reduction possibilities...defer, delay, reprioritise.

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 17:23

looking at capex reduction possibilities...defer, delay, reprioritise.

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 17:19

Here is the webcast link. Suggest anyone interested watches it.

No info on portfolio strategy as highly sensitive - proposed farmdowns of Uganda and Kenya. Expected to generate more than 1 billion USD....

[sentimentrules] 16/3/2020 17:19

Yes. I heard this was 60p recently too

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 16:51

Have you heard about the hedging at 57 USD? 60% of production.

[leoneobull] 16/3/2020 16:49

What do u mean no equity left? There is equity and it made a nice recovery. I've seen some deramping attempts in my time but justthemoney was the poorest.

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 16:48

That 1.76m trade is interesting... a short closing maybe

[investordave] 16/3/2020 16:40

Awful UT and after hours trade.

[teamwork1] 16/3/2020 16:34

Opec meeting cancelled

[subsurface] 16/3/2020 16:34

Nice to see a rise but still cheaper than an ASDA bag!

[charlesjames1] 16/3/2020 16:29

Usual end of day push down but none the less, not a bad push up considering. Still watching though.

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 16:25

Last buys under 10p

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 16:17

Up she goes, once in a life time moment these prices

[seball] 16/3/2020 16:13

I think there will be a deal for the assets aswell as debt refinancing by end of March. This will be back above 20p end of March imo

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 16:11

Rise rise rise

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 16:11

Heading for 10p snooze you loose

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 16:10

Buy baby buy

[subsurface] 16/3/2020 16:06

Chinese officials say the outbreak that spread from Wuhan in December has mostly run its course domestically.

President Xi Jinping has pledged economic growth targets for the year will still be met.



Did anyone see the cartoon
Husband reading the newspaper says to his wife Boris wants to build a bridge from Scotland to Ireland It will take about 10 years!
Wife says why not let the Chinease do it will be completed in a week!

[sbb1x] 16/3/2020 16:06

Dad,You remember when you bought 1m shares in tlw for 90k and you became a millionaire within 1 year....