Triplearc Share Discussion Threads

[nurdin] 21/3/2007 14:10

Nice 1m buy there :o)

[wiganer] 21/3/2007 13:08

No, no position K. Have just put back on my watchlist though.

[knowing] 21/3/2007 13:06

Good luck. I see it has moved higher again today.

[hybrasil] 21/3/2007 13:04

I bought in today . Have been following for a long time

[hybrasil] 21/3/2007 13:04

I bought in today . Have been following for a long time

[knowing] 21/3/2007 11:13

Took a small position yesterday. How about yourself ?

[wiganer] 21/3/2007 11:10

Morning K. You back in TPA?

[knowing] 21/3/2007 11:09

250K MM buy there.

[nurdin] 21/3/2007 10:08

Yes over 700k bought so far...and the bid has ticked up.

This is a risky investment however and the picture will only get clearer after they have announced their results next Tuesday.But from where I am sitting it appears that the management have stabilised the ship through actions which should ensure decent cashflow and profits enough to appease the lenders.I note that Altrium,their house broker issued their buy note only on 14March this year which suggests that the company has given enough information to the brokers for them to feel a bit more bullish

If they meet brokers estimates for 06, which they say they will,then pretax will have jumped from £0.4m in H1 to £0.6m in H2..and that will be without the benefit of the Betterware and other contracts announced recently.These should kick in this year,and with the costs streamlined,the Brokers estimates of £1.8m and eps of 0.7p look entirely achievable.That is a PE of under 4 and more than discounts the risks imo.

The key metric will be the cashflow and the debt level at the end of the year.With costs under control and the debtor days now reduced to 50 I feel optimistic on that front as well.

[knowing] 21/3/2007 08:28

Interest building again.

[roverisback] 20/3/2007 23:46

abit of a hatchet job to get the price low for them...glad i topped up at 2.47p...maybe get a 1 bagger by results?

[knowing] 20/3/2007 23:43

Wonder if we will see some Institutions adding at this level ?

[clarkyboy1] 20/3/2007 16:55

Cash has decreased as follows. Start the year with net debt of £16.3m, and repay £2m of debt to HSBC which should leave £14.3m owing. Instead the net debt is £15m, a loss in cash of £700k.

[kimboy2] 20/3/2007 16:07

Clarkyboy
I am afraid I tend to be optimistic about shares I own.

The 600k interest of course refers to the half year and works out at 8% annualised.

If they meet the forecasts then EBITA will be £1.6m in H2/06. There will no doubt be some capex expenses but depreciation is running at about 450k.

There isn't going to be any tax.

They didn't mention trading because they did so on Jan 30th and of course will do so in a week.

How do you know cash has decreased ?

The debt isn't higher than it is meant to be. Altium were forecasting a 2006 y/e net debt of £15.6m.

Apart from that..

[nurdin] 20/3/2007 15:55

They have already said they will meet market expectations....

Trading Update

Trading in 2006 was in line with expectations. As at 31 December 2006, the
Company's net debt was #15m, down from #16.3m at the beginning of the year.

The Company expects to announce its results for the year ended 31 December 2006
in late March 2007.

[clarkyboy1] 20/3/2007 15:43

Kimboy, you obviously drink from the same cup of unrealistic optimism as Knowing. Here's a prediction for you; the EBITA will be broadly in line with expectation which will allow the directors to get the share options. BUT, there will be substantial costs within exceptionals due to some clever accounting.

The interest charge will be almost double your prediction of £600k, any bank charging such a low rate on interest on £16m of debt wouldn't stay in business for long. Cash will have decreased substantially, and the debt is £700k higher than it should have been, meaning that overall the profit of the company wasn't anywhere near sufficient to meet their cash requirements.

You did notice I presume that there was no mention of trading within their announcement? I think I hear the fat lady singing.............

[nurdin] 20/3/2007 15:37

Seems like MMs are now asking for the full offer price..indication that there is not much more stock left to go..we shall see

[knowing] 20/3/2007 15:34

That 1M T looks like a buy at 10:57. It's going to be interesting to see what is reported after the close or towards the end of the day.

[knowing] 20/3/2007 13:30

What do we think a seller clearing the decks prior to the start of the new financial year ?

[nurdin] 20/3/2007 12:58

Results 27March guys and no warning..phew :o)

[knowing] 20/3/2007 12:14

Shall be interesting then Simon thanks.

[nurdin] 20/3/2007 11:19

I must be mad but I have taken a small punt here...trading in line and customers seem happy with their balance sheet to place decent contracts with them.....3 bagger if the year end results look half decent or...bust!

[roverisback] 20/3/2007 10:55

topped up again..screw the mms!

[simonparker5] 20/3/2007 09:41

Knowing - think this is just nerves before the results announcement which expected before the end of the month.