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Investor discussions surrounding Social Housing Reit Plc (SOHO) focused heavily on the implications of the MySpace properties and the management of associated rental streams following recent challenges. The sentiment expressed by investors was a mix of cautious optimism and concern over the sustainability of SOHO’s rental income amid issues with MySpace’s administration and the larger socio-political environment related to welfare spending. One investor highlighted, "Assuming the My Space properties are now managed properly... won't this now increase divi cover?" This reflects a hope that improved management could stabilize cash flows.
Furthermore, concerns were raised regarding the reliance on government-backed income streams. An investor noted that while income is indeed government-supported, this does not eliminate the operational risks associated with tenant management. Investors are particularly wary of upcoming political decisions, as indicated by remarks about potential cuts in welfare spending, which could affect the demographic that SOHO serves. A participant suggested, "I would like to invest here... the only problem... is Reeves' announcement that she is going to slash Welfare spending." This encapsulates the mixed sentiment—while there is interest in SOHO's resilience and long-term strategy, potential shifts in government policy could pose a significant risk.
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Social Housing REIT plc has recently faced significant challenges due to its relationship with My Space Housing Solutions, which has defaulted on rent payments since June 2024. The company notified stakeholders that My Space has filed proposals for a company voluntary arrangement (CVA), which aims to restructure its debts. This development affects 34 properties leased to My Space, with the rent arrears having already been fully provisioned for through the Expected Credit Loss, indicating a cautious financial approach from Social Housing REIT.
Despite these difficulties, the REIT's management team, Atrato Partners Limited, is actively engaging with My Space and their advisors to evaluate the proposed recovery plans. The overall impact of these developments on Social Housing REIT's financial performance and strategic positioning will be closely monitored as the situation evolves. This issue is significant, considering the potential impacts on rental income and property valuation in the face of My Space’s financial restructuring efforts.
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I noticed on the AIC website the AIC had the SOHO NAV @ 129.45. I wrote to them about it, apparently Morningstar are picking up the EPRA Net Disposal Value (NDV) instead of the reported NAV. The difference is a £62m add-back for the difference for debt at fair value vs amortised cost. Which is huge given total debt is like £260m. I assume the fair value number is just a model number (so meaningless), but I wrote to triple point about it so will see if they eventually get back to me. Still, it's puzzling and haven't gotten to the bottom of it yet so thought I would throw it out there if anyone has any thoughts. |
A couple of questions that I hope some may assist me with: |
You'll see the value in increased EPRA eps It's the delta between the EPRA yield they buy the stock at and the yield they sold the assets at |
Very happy with progress. Not convinced about long term value of share buyback. |
Next Qtrly x-div on 19th Sept |
Results rns out today, very good imo |
Hard to refute a criticism of Triple Point |
Div date announced |
Oakbloke having a pop at TP - hxxps://theoakbloke. |
Ditto It's possible there's a little to come of the NAV for transitioning tenants, but that's 2-5% type of a hit; max 10% Red Book valuations are more reliable than DCF/models plus houses are just easier to value And of course there's good market comps; and also now clear this isn't HOME But equally clear the stink won't clear until TP are gone - and you just simply can't trust them |
I am happy the nav is in the right ballpark |
How confident are investors in the reported NAV after the DG19 debacle? |
I'm all for patience But what's more likely it TP stay is it gets taken out cheaply by PE Sure nice capital gain But would far rather pick up my 9.5 yield on cost forever If your taken out at a say c7.5 yield then there's not that many places you can put it at that yield with this level of risk |
Getting a great yield while watching it slowly recover is fine by me but I can understand others frustration and desire for this to get back to nav quickly |
I second that WC104. I don't think TP have any hope of running a green grocer now. |
Check out DGI9 - also run by Tripple Point They've just had their NAV cut from 79p to 45p over a period when the marco has improved That looks very fraudy - on over inflated book values they of course get paid management fees I'm not arguing that SOHOs NAV is over valued (or certainly not by anything like the extent that DGIs was) But it's absolutely clear that this won't recover until Triple Point go Need a new manager urgently |
I've been stashing these away for a little while at average 9% yield, so any capital growth is just icing on the cake. Love a quarterly dividend too. |
When the wind is fair, it is not just narrowing the discount to the NAV. But also narrowing to a growing NAV. A nice double whammy plus possibly a growing dividend. |
With decent management, sorting out the remaining tenant issues (even if that means taking a bit of a hit on near term rental income) there's no reason why we shouldn't get to NAV; particularly if rates fall and the wealth managers all start panicking about getting a proper yield |
In the normal scheme of things I would be poised on the reduce button. But the discount gave me pause for thought. I checked out the historic 10y discount sp/NAV. Apart from recently (and COVID blip) the biggest discount is 28.1%. If that is matched in the next 10 years then the share price would need to rise by at least 3.9%pa. When added to the current dividend yield of 8.6% my expected return is >12.5%. Better than I can find elsewhere, so staying put and riding the surge. |
IndeedHopefully we get good news on our friends at Triple PointNew manger and bit of asset management and this should trade up towards NAV Like SUPR, this is one I'd like to own for the long term; rather than get taken out by an opportunistic PE bid - a la CSH - even if that's hardly a disaster from an immediate return perspective |
This has been firming nicely recently |
Maybe of help |
Very good summary. |
Did anyone else think this was an obfuscated message that rents from the problem managers will have to come down a fair bit to attract new managers? |
Type | Ordinary Share |
Share ISIN | GB00BF0P7H59 |
Sector | Real Estate Investment Trust |
Bid Price | 57.80 |
Offer Price | 58.30 |
Open | 59.00 |
Shares Traded | 5,804 |
Last Trade | 08:29:32 |
Low - High | 57.60 - 59.00 |
Turnover | 39.84M |
Profit | 34.99M |
EPS - Basic | 0.0889 |
PE Ratio | 6.48 |
Market Cap | 228.21M |
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