Trifast Share Discussion Threads

[spooky] 21/12/2022 13:33

Nice volume. Seller done? Looks like Sanford are now out.

[sphere25] 21/12/2022 13:24

The short version:

Taken a speculative few here for a short term trade. There are some interesting exchanges here today. Ideally a break out above 62p could lead to a trading bounce to sell into. Exit the trade if no momentum.

The longer version:

As per the majority of the market, the trend here is horribly down, the price is beaten up and the bearish themes continue as the market continues to weigh up beaten down valuations versus the depth and length of the macro woes.

There are some stand out exchanges today with overall volume hitting 12.8 million at present. The Bears have had it all their way in this terrible market, but today we are seeing a much more vigorous battle between the Bulls and Bears, with the former attempting to clear out sellers to at least drive a short term rally higher.

This is what the short term trade is attempting to play. From the bulk of this year, we know the Bears usually win out or the bounces don't last long, but for those of us who are primarily short term traders, that doesn't mean we shouldn't be attempting short term trades using stops. Clearly there have been some more bullish moves out there of late and these bigger buyers coming in today here at TRI are attempting to sniff out longer term value too.

They aren't going to buying big chunks of the company without having a longer term view. That doesn't mean they get it right all the time, but they are having a go, and are clearly taking a view on the macro and micro (which way around will depend on the fund).

It looks like Sanford have been cleared today. They had sold down from 9.72% down to 4.78% as at the 13th December. Today a 6.275 million block (roughly corresponding to their last position as per the RNS on the 14th December) has been sold into the market at 56.6p. It looks like it has been gobbled up by two large buyers in two blocks of 3.087 million.

What we then saw was the order book build on the bid with some larger buy orders appearing e.g. a 25k@57p and a 50k@58p though the book was soon edited (the book is often very fluid with the likes of illiquid TRI) with the latter moving to a 5k. Nonetheless the book has built on the bid and buyers have cleared 60p at present with some small exchanges there and the price going into auction and currently at 63.2p, up 11% on the day.

Liquidity has been a continued issue in this market too, with fund managers continuing to mention the lack of it, so Sanford could be looking for liquidity too. It could be that, a tidying up of the year end book with getting an under performer off the book too, or just a give up here in expecting further deterioration in the macro and thus the valuation of TRI.

As I type, the Bulls are making a good attempt of at least cause a short term bounce with key technical levels now being under threat. A move through 60p and 62p would be bullish, along with the 50 day moving average sat at 61p. The price is moving even higher as I type, up 14% at 65p. The 200 day moving average has rarely been under threat and is sat at 89p.

I feel that is too far a stretch at this juncture though.

The macro will come into play, and with TRI being cyclical, having already warning with profit being ten percent under expectations in October. Revenue was ahead of expectations though, and the most recent update did point to trading being in line, so the market is clearly trying to take those as the bottom of the earnings being in.

I was going to point out the history of the earnings here, but this is getting too long already, and if I did this for every trade, I wouldn't want to post here. Suffice to say this is a call on earnings now stabilising, the debt not coming into play, and the macro not being a big balls up by the central plankers.

If those were to play out next year (even if the earnings were to fall abit from here), the market would likely eventually bid TRI higher. Now the issue is we don't know how long and deep the recession will be, but judging by wider market moves, the collective mind of the market is suggesting that it will be a modest slowdown and nothing severe.

Anything severe (i.e. central plankers having once more called it wildly wrong as per the recent past) could really cause a substantial fall off in earnings here in TRI and around the rest of the market, which would in my humble opinion, suggest more downside in many of the shares out there.

This example of TRI is representative of many others out there.

We're in that bullish seasonal period (five days after Christmas and two into the new year usually where the returns are usually positive), but we have also seen key technical marks like the 200 day moving average on the S&P500 in the US not being breached for further upside momentum.

So regardless of how folk manoevure around the market, there is plenty of food for thought for all market participants.

Next year will be interesting - that is for sure.

Let's see how it goes.

All imo
DYOR

[gymratt] 02/12/2022 16:18

Inviting 'bowl' -->100p IMO. ;0)

[gymratt] 02/12/2022 08:15

Most I could buy this morning was 8000 shares(not showing yet), Negotiated Order over that..

[hamhamham1] 01/12/2022 17:23

Still chugging up here, no rush.

[archy147] 28/11/2022 20:59

Fair enough hamham, I think holding all those for few years will see you rewarded as most are at very depressed values and a fair few will surely recover.

I currently hold 6 of them myself (FSJ LUCE OTB SFOR TRI TUI). A few others are on my watchlist, hoping for a lower entry point. Good luck!

[hamhamham1] 28/11/2022 15:52

No doubt a couple will do badly and a couple will go nowhere, but I hope to make it up on the others over an average.
My hope is to 2.5x current value.
So 150% gains.
But that is really hard to achieve, but with divis, let's see.

[hamhamham1] 28/11/2022 15:50

A lot of them are potentially undervalued, wouldn't like to say which ones the most, it depends where you think their share prices will recover to really. I usually dream of hitting 50% of their recent-ish highs, but that's just a hope.
Am just happy to hold them for 3 or 4 yrs and see what happens.

[archy147] 28/11/2022 08:51

I've bought in here too :)

hamham - interesting "Dirty 30" there. I either own, have owned, or have considered owning pretty much all of those. Which ones in your opinion are the best bets (ie most undervalued still)?

[hamhamham1] 27/11/2022 08:41

Boystown, interesting :)

If I were talking my book, I would mention my Dirty 30 (ish)...
ASC, BOO, COST, EZJ, EVR, FSJ, FCH, IGR, ITV, JUP, WG., KIE, LUCE, MKS, MTRO, OTB, REVB, RR., SFOR, SAGA, SDRY, SYNT, THG, TRI, TRST, TUI.

[boystown] 26/11/2022 19:23

It’s interesting to zoom out on TRI and look at a five year performance during which annual operating profit has varied from a pandemic low of £10.5m and a high of over £20m, with EPS varying between a Covid-affected 0.26p and c.12p which is more“normal221;. During this time, the share price has been as high as 270p in April 2018 and a low of 50p last week.

“So what?” you might reasonably ask, but this is a fairly consistent global “nuts and bolts” business which may not deserve a high rating, but which certainly deserves a reasonable one IMO as their products are top quality AIUI, witness; hxxps://www.trfastenings.com/knowledge-base

And this week’s results showed a company gradually getting back to something like normal despite the obvious challenges. So for reasonably patient investors; with t/o of c.£220m and operating profit gradually getting back to, let’s say, £15m - then a “goodwill̶1; valuation of c.£100m would seem conservative. Add to that £200m for current assets and a really tiny amount for non-current assets, then deduct all liabilities and we come out at an admittedly rough valuation of 119p which, funnily enough, is where the share price was as recently as March. And it was just on a quid as recently as early September.

So for investors who, by design, decide not to sweat the minutiae but to focus on the bigger, slightly longer-term picture, these have to be worth triple figures at least?

Anyway, I’m talking my book as I bought at 54p this week - so please don’t listen to me!

[tezula] 25/11/2022 22:27

The interview on investormeetcompany is well worth a watch. There’s a significant FX gain on the revenue bridge which converts wholly to profit. The Q&A at the end of the session reveals that there is currently a £10m provision for stock obsolescence. From the accounts I’m concerned about the £16m spent to date on Project Atlas and the £500,000 used to say goodbye to the previous FD. I’m not convinced that the PLC Board know what’s going on under the bonnet of this business. Point is made about the fragmented nature of the market for fastenings. I wonder if there are some smart businesses capable of becoming serious competition for Trifast? I’m bemused by the nil cost shares handed out this week to the CEO. It’s not all doom and gloom price increases are successfully being applied and there are some significant new business wins. Overheads are increasing due to wage settlements and new hires.

[hamhamham1] 25/11/2022 18:46

Bought a few today.

[superstardj] 25/11/2022 13:56

Lovely bear squeeze going on today.

[jolomo] 25/11/2022 13:33

I think the price is partly explained by a substantial discount for poor management.

[spooky] 25/11/2022 12:13

Trifast is significantly undervalued across the cycle at these levels IMO. I would expect them to receive a takeover offer if they stay at this price for very long.

[hatfullofsky] 22/11/2022 11:37

Crazy price indeed but how long will the recovery take ? This is now a recovery play, I was waiting for the results, for some optimistic read but there isn't one.

[value hound] 22/11/2022 11:23

I've picked some up. Crazy price imo

[gleach23] 31/10/2022 11:06

Tempted here...that's a large trade of 173,264 shares just gone through @ 63p. Watching share price reaction to see if a seller clearing.

[hatfullofsky] 28/10/2022 10:21

Trading on a PE of 6 for a quality company

[simon gordon] 20/10/2022 17:12

Quarterly chart back to 2007:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[jolomo] 20/10/2022 08:18

IMHO will need a new CEO to make this investable.

[pursia] 03/10/2022 14:18

Price on 05 May 22 was +/-98p. On 14 Sep it was +/-85. Bought today at 70p. May go lower if sales decline but I expect it to recover by 2025. Historically bought it at 43p in 2012 and sold at 263p in 2018. I hope the same might happen this time!

[r2oo] 14/9/2022 17:36

Topping up at this level me thinks...