Trifast Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 22/6/2020 14:09

FinnCap have released forecasts (a rarity in this environment): 2020 EPS to come in at 10.7p. Clearly that is for the year ended March just gone, but the surprising thing is that 2021 EPS are expected to fall to only 10.5p with turnover actually rising 3%. That seems remarkably resilient. Perhaps I'm too bearish (looking out more to 2022 rather than 2021 for that form of recovery) or they're too optimistic (note that there were pre-Covid warnings here in Oct 2019 and Feb 2020). I guess time will tell, but either way if the wider market gets shaky and this tumbles, a better entry point should be presented. US is moving sideways at the moment. There is no conviction move, but with a nervous undercurrent. Numerous headwinds on the horizon (beyond Covid-19) so its a wait and see. A few of the recent trades have broken out and been sold into too so it's all abit edgy out there. Clearly not as straightforward as when the party 10-20% moves were happening almost daily. Mr Market has changed bowler - harder to hit this one out of the park. It's more a defensive theme and picking the right balls to ensure your stumps don't get blown away.

[joshuam] 20/6/2020 05:06

I too have been in and out of this, got caught with a few now. Hoping normal progress returns shortly

[sphere25] 19/6/2020 11:24

Well that move has been abruptly halted by the placing with the stock off 6% at 125p. It's always a risk out there now, particularly with the recent strength in share prices. Many stocks have reacted positively to financing's, but the movements have been volatile in both directions Many companies are taking advantage of a better position (relatively speaking) and shoring up the finances. Recent examples include SHI, STVG, DLAR, WMH, ESC, NEXS, AIR, BIFF, ANG, PMP, RBG, STOB, TED, IWG. There are loads and many more will follow. Still difficult to not be apprehensive about many of the rapid recoveries in stocks. If you look at TRI's statement on trading: "..revenues in April 2020 were approximately 50 percent lower year-on-year, with profitability being significantly adversely impacted. Encouragingly, volumes have begun to recover in all key end markets which, together with a return to fuller operational capacity, resulted in Group revenues improving in May 2020." There is more a encouraging comment straight after: "The current pipeline of opportunities and activity levels around the Group remain encouraging and based on current order books and customer discussions, the Board expects further recovery in June 2020, with the Group returning to underlying profitability in the month." But if we focus on the initial paragraph, that is the theme with so many company statements. There is clearly a huge fall off and then a form of recovery in May and June, but still significantly away from the prior year (let alone forecasts pre Covid-19). With so much uncertainty out there on the economic front as well as news yesterday of outbreaks of Covid-19, I just wonder if these earnings and a slower progression than anticipated might cause some weakness in stocks. It would be going from the current rally on any form of positive news to selling on news. The market is taking the view that these recoveries will continue strongly and even handing out an almost blanket earnings passes for this year and even next for many out there. Clearly the central bank liquidity is winning over fundamentals at present and it's hard to see how overall markets will be allowed to fall materially, but that's not to say individual stocks have got ahead of themselves. TRI specifically wasn't bonkers expensive with pre Covid-19 EPS expected to come in at 11.3p. It had fallen from 14.3p the prior year, but if the market was factoring in a recovery, the multiple wasn't excessive particularly not compared to some of the ratings out there. With forecasts withdrawn, hard to say when the earnings recover here (need to know the placing price too - market is suggesting somewhere around 120-125p at present), but if you took a longer term view to 2022 perhaps there are enough positive noises (vaccine included) to suggest EPS could be back in double digits. That would suggest buying any material weakness here. Perhaps it is easier being a longer term holder. As a shorter term trader, I'm going to continue nipping in and out of things but this was an interesting example of some of the themes out there. EDIT: Can't see that trade of 239,000 Joshuam. The ADVFN system is guessing trades so not always reflective of the true buying and selling but the price move will usually paint the real picture.

[joshuam] 10/6/2020 17:39

Anyone know if the “0” trade 239,000 was a buy or not

[sphere25] 08/6/2020 15:18

A few more fireworks. Well done if you caught this move.

[tole] 08/6/2020 13:42

Breaking out

[sphere25] 05/6/2020 13:43

As per RWI, these are on the breakout watchlist. Another that is testing an absolute key resistance level on the chart.

[merrimac] 23/12/2019 19:33

200 cents / 235 pence

[joshuam] 23/12/2019 10:40

Berenburg cuts target price to 200

[effortless cool] 19/11/2019 09:26

I only had a small holding of 14,000-odd shares but sold out this morning, as I can't see anything to convince me to stay invested. Annoyed with myself for being too passive with this holding, as I felt much the same when they were 100p higher.

[johndoe23] 19/11/2019 09:20

Ok is not good enough for me to take a position. Was hoping for more positive news, chairman departing not ideal either, like you say...

[hatfullofsky] 19/11/2019 07:54

Diamond going is not the best news, results OK

[brownmruk] 23/10/2019 11:16

I know people like to read between the lines but that is quite a drop in relation to reducing a profit forecast by 10%.

[davr0s] 22/10/2019 13:46

It remains to be seen whether this is a fantastic entry point - only time will tell

[davr0s] 22/10/2019 13:44

Yeah nothing wrong with investing but most don't realise and haven't internalised the drawdown that you have to be prepared to hold through a bear market - so end up not following through with their plan. Which is why I trade - not on short timescales but as long as trend persists. Means I'm largely out of the market when the next bear arrives

[hatfullofsky] 22/10/2019 10:59

trade v invest - for me this is one of those moments the market offers you a fantastic entry price on a quality share.

[davr0s] 22/10/2019 10:39

I don't trade on this specifically but it's a fact - shares only go higher by making higher highs/lows and vice versa. I'm not predicting anything but price has broken trend here and has a lot of work to do to make a sustained move higher now as there islots of overhead supply. May not be what people want to hear but have posted similar in other shares in the past and many of them are significantly lower now. This way of analysing is as old as the hills - go read Weinstein, ONeil, Minervini as examples

[hatfullofsky] 22/10/2019 08:31

Pretty basic support and resistance analysis

[davr0s] 22/10/2019 07:30

Lower high followed by a lower low on a meaningful timescale confirms the break

[davr0s] 22/10/2019 07:29

I see a share that has broken trend to the downside - sorry

[hawaly] 22/10/2019 07:26

The latest BREXIT Deal proposal sees THE UK outside the Customs Union - this will threaten JIT production which will, if it comes to pass, over the medium term encourage car manufacturers to up sticks and move elswhere - probably Eastern Europe.

[brucie5] 21/10/2019 22:13

Davros, close your eyes and think of a yo-yo. Now look at the TRI chart. What do you see?

[davr0s] 21/10/2019 21:51

I technically trade and that means I have no opinion whatsoever as to where price is going to go

[davr0s] 21/10/2019 21:50

Crikey with that predictive ability can you provide this week's winning lottery numbers

[hatfullofsky] 21/10/2019 21:22

3yr low despite all the acquisitions and growth. Trading now on a PE of 12.5 with a historical PE between 15 - 18. Based on uPBT £22m PBT £16mOver reaction - back to 200 within 3 months (but may test 150 along the way)