Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 19/2/2021 09:26

So pretty much can double production from current levels, encouraging that the lom is 14 years and has potential upside. Pretty low capex which I guess would be done through debt and equity. Using LOM Revenue $715m, Free Cash Flow of $126m and production of 517koz implies that an average margin of $243/oz and average gold price of $1383 so implies AISC of $1139.

[peterhuber91] 19/2/2021 08:05

looks very good economically. With or without sublevel caving open pit.This results in at least 40% IRR posttax at 1600 pog. that's very good. A 10% discount factor is published. That already shows the strength of the PEA. Even with a POG of 1300 usd, there is a clearly positive NPV10 posttax. In any case, there should still be room at the top because currently only about 50% of the resources have gone into the PEA. I'm excited.Peter

[jeanesy] 19/2/2021 07:52

Not the friday RNS i was expecting. Still no news on accident investigation ?

[leopoldalcox] 19/2/2021 07:23

Scoping study out this morning 19 February 2021Trans-Siberian Gold plc("TSG", the "Company" or the "Group")Rodnikova Project Scoping StudyTrans-Siberian Gold plc (TSG.LN), a low cost, high grade gold producer in Russia, is pleased to announce the results of an independent Scoping Study for the 100% owned Rodnikova Project (the "Project") in Kamchatka, Far East Russia prepared by SRK Consulting (Russia) Ltd ("SRK"). Project Highlights Production Potential·      Life of mine ("LOM") 14 years·      LOM is based on a Mineral Resource Estimate, reported in accordance with the JORC Code (2012),   of  6.3 Mt at an average grade of 5.0 g/t gold·      LOM gold production of 517,000 oz. at an average grade of 4.03 g/t·      LOM silver production of 3,062,000 oz. at an average grade of 28.9 g/t·      Sub-level stoping and underground mining methods assessed to be optimal for the Project·      Conventional CIL processing plant with processing capacity of 500 kt per annum·      Gold recovery 94%·      Cut-off grade of 3.5 g/t, calculated based on $1,250/oz gold price assumption·      Production schedule does not include any potential future exploration success and Mineral Resource   growth Project Costs & Economics[1]·      LOM Revenue of $715m·      LOM Free Cash Flow of $126m·      LOM CAPEX $133m of which $82m is initial/construction CAPEX in year 1·      Economics at LOM gold price of US$1,600/oz (Management sensitivity)o  Including application of TOR:§ Post Tax NPV10% of $177.6m§ Post Tax Internal Rate of Return of 59.2%o  Excluding application of TOR[2]§ Post Tax NPV10% of $117.6m§ Post Tax Internal Rate of Return of 40%·      Economics at LOM gold price of US$1,300/oz (SRK base case)o  Including application of TOR:§ Post Tax NPV10% of $92.4m§ Post Tax Internal Rate of Return of 35.3%o  Excluding application of TOR§ Post Tax NPV10% of $45.8m§ Post Tax Internal Rate of Return of 22%·      Discounted Payback period of 4 years applying TOR, or maximum of 6 years excluding TOR

[2603] 18/2/2021 16:51

Like I said in my last comment, the cheaper this goes the better value it is for long term holders who want to add to their portfolio, as long as they don't change their dividend. If anything they should increase the Div but they may wait until the unfortunate incident is cleared up. Fozzie, you mentioned a drop from 128 to 95 is only 25% which is normal. Looking at the chart it could spike down to around 80p on a big sell off, (highly unlikely) which is where I would buy a shed load more. If it shakes people out with weak hands then so be it, apart from the accident nothing has changed with TSG, they still have the gold in the ground and vein 25 will eventually reopen. A good example of share dropping is Caml, they touched £2.70 and crashed to £2.20 on nothing. Now its back up at £2.60. Its doesn't take long to claw its way back up.

[stupmy] 18/2/2021 16:11

The chart for gold is very similar to the chart for TSG, but TSG drop started about a day earlier (Jan 4th vs 5th or 6th for gold). I guess the 4th was the mining accident, then a lot of the rest is related to POG. Although TSG's drop appears to be amplified (almost 3fold the 10% drop in Gold, I'm wondering if that is primarily because the accident blocked access to this high grade vein people talk of, bringing the price down to levels before excitement over that pushed them up into the 130's. After that the similarity in the charts of gold and TSG is marked. Gold was looking for further downside today and so did TSG share price I'd be careful about reading into the TSG price drop anything relating to the accident. Total speculation on my part of course.

[fozzie] 18/2/2021 15:49

The company needs to clear this up and quickly as this drip drip slide down is just nervous retail jumping ship. 128 to 95 off the back of the incident plus fall in pog.

[2tsg] 18/2/2021 15:47

I think we'll know which way RNS goes....its always leaky day before.

[jeanesy] 18/2/2021 12:55

Ive noticed over the years that TSG is a company that quite often puts out RNS's on a friday. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome on the mining investigation .

[scooper72] 18/2/2021 12:46

Yep there does seem to be a lot of price jumps in little lithium miners out on Australia etc at the moment.

[corrientes] 18/2/2021 12:20

There's never been such a thing as a sure permanent bet, and whereas central banks greatly influence the gold price, adversely in the main, I don't think for a moment that bitcoin won't come under governmental pressure should fiat itself be influenced. This runaway train will hit the buffers at some point, but who knows when.

[ukgeorge] 18/2/2021 11:57

If it drops to $12-15k I would consider buying, but that obviously looks a little unlikely. In 2018 it hit $18-19k then fell to $3k. I'd rather try and play the ev boom, li, ni, rare earths etc

[zangdook] 18/2/2021 11:42

Do you think it's too late?

[corrientes] 18/2/2021 11:33

Glad I'm not the only one.

[ukgeorge] 18/2/2021 11:29

I am sadly ruing the day when I didn't sit through a talk on Bitcoin when it was sitting around $500 :(

[corrientes] 18/2/2021 11:06

that's if Bitcoin doesn't become the new permanent 'gold' standard, to the detriment of the real thing. I'm ancient and a technophobe, but I've followed some of these type shares from when they were worth a lot lot less, and curse myself for being mentally lazy and not getting invested, but at my age it's only money !

[ukgeorge] 18/2/2021 10:58

thanks 2603, very good summary. Any big pull backs and I will be topping up.

[2603] 17/2/2021 17:26

There’s seems to be a lot of negative sentiment in tsg at the moment. Accidents do happen in mines, it was a tragedy that lives were lost but people forget they had their biggest turn over and best year. As long as I keep getting their great dividend I Am happy to buy more when it gets sold off too much. This is a great, well run, good growth company that pays a good Div. the cheaper the price goes the more shares I get for my div. this is not a trading stock but a good income stock and you need this in your portfolio and I think in the next couple of years I see it easily doubling maybe trebling from here.

[stupmy] 17/2/2021 16:52

In my view 90-95 looks likely now and that might not be the end of it. It seems to me that every time the selling (seller/s) backs off there's some buying (probably retail). As price starts to rise, more buyers come in and the seller/s offload again. It could fit with large holders trying to unwind at the best possible prices. I think the down-side risk is increasing, but good news could swing it all around. I've seen this drip, drip, drip type fall before and it's often a trap to people as each fall seems small and there is always the hope tomorrow will be the bottom. When it's not, you can be sat on quite a big fall.

[jeanesy] 17/2/2021 16:38

Shareprice action is showing that some investors not willing to take the risk here. Hopefully there will be news soon . could go either way. Hopefully some of the downside is already priced in if the news is not good.

[stupmy] 17/2/2021 16:32

Price seems to be closing on a low, that's not a good sign for long positions, but good news out of hours could turn it around. If it's a good company, with a good future, it's just a case of weathering the changes in share price I prefer to try to get in and out and exploit the swings. Doesn't always work and it's time consuming.

[ukgeorge] 17/2/2021 16:28

It is a bit of a binary bet, either mining can carry on at the high grade vein or they have to jump through a load of hoops. could be plus or minus 20p on the news. The smart money sold a couple of weeks back on the share tip. Silly people like me are still holding.



"In accordance with normal protocols in Russia, a Federal Technical Inspection (RTN) investigation commission has been established and has commenced its work. It is anticipated that the investigation will take a minimum of 30 days."

That was from the last RNS, using the 11th Jan as the first week 30 working days bring us to this week. So we might have to wait a few weeks more especially given how remote the operation is, the time of year and covid, although in Moscow there isn't a lock down currently.

[scooper72] 17/2/2021 15:19

Have reluctantly sold a 1000 shares today as am feeling late to the party and already down 17 percent. AmHolding on to a few shares for now, but as my SIPP is fully invested just feel best to keep a bit of cash on the side. Will have to take a look at my recent Hummingbird buy as well.

[stupmy] 17/2/2021 12:36

Today it would have to close below 99.25 to exit the triangle properly. At the moment the price has dipped out a few times, but not closed out. Someone said there is a particular seller, if that was true, it could explain what's happening. If that seller stopped selling the price could stabilise, although I think a fair bit of doubt has crept into peoples minds so it might not result in a quick move to the upside. On the other hand, good news could have this flying up I guess. On the daily chart things remain for me in a bullish movement (although that's becoming neutral). Don't forget charts describe what has already happened, not what will happen in the future, but there is a fair body of historical data to suggest that you've a reasonable chance of making good decisions about future share price movements if you understand what has happened in the past and is happening in the present.
Not so long ago prices in the low 90's were considered to toppy by some commentators (those are published views, but I can't remember the source so can't reference it/them; some of you will have read those views at the time). Now people think 130 and more is normal and undervalues the company. Not everyone can be right. If there is a substantial investor selling down their stake, they are doing for a good reason. That reason doesn't have to directly relate to TSG. As 1knocker says the current weakness in the gold price isn't helping either although it remains high.

[ukgeorge] 17/2/2021 11:57

gold prices also playing a part. Really will be nasty if the news is bad. Fingers crossed they are able to carry on mining.