Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[wingrove4] 05/11/2013 20:56

Yes I agree IC have not got a great record. I stopped my subscription years ago

[buffetteer] 05/11/2013 13:22

Good reason to buy then eh!
The question is do you think they will sell;
More condition monitoring equipment now that they have a framework agreement
More consultancy services now the re-franchising is back on
More sales and profits from the new acquisition .
If the answers are yes then why on earth would you sell.
i hope people do so I can pick up a few more cheaply.

[huttonr] 04/11/2013 08:36

I see the latest issue of IC says 'Tracsis on track' and 'sell'

[johnsx] 30/10/2013 14:59

Another slow burner. Worth a hold.

[buffetteer] 27/10/2013 16:55

It surprises me how everyone looks backwards.
If you continue to look back you really ought to sell.

Looking forward in the actual business one can see lots of positives ;
Framework agreement for Mepc -now one of 3 suppliers rather than 4 .Should be good for sales (having been well down last year).
Re-franchising timetable agreeed by Gov't so lots of work there which was suspended last year.
New acquisition full year contribution might surprise most.
Sales opps abroad for software could also surprise.
£7m in cash looking for a home . remove the cash and it s a fair bit cheaper.
Remember this is a v. high margin business with some great IP and competitive advantage .Its just has lumpy sales .
Dont write them off .Ive tripled my money so far and have no intention of selling part way through this exciting journey.

[penpont] 24/10/2013 22:57

Have to agree with the IC results update from today:

SHARE TIP UPDATE:

Tracsis is expanding its geographical footprint and, at some point, should start to pick up more rail franchise-related consultancy work. There's also a line of new products and a cash pile with which to support further acquisitions. However, forecast profit growth is modest, the dividend yield is wafer thin and - with the shares trading on a hardly cheap 17 times forecast earnings - it's time to take profits from our buy tip (138p, 9 August 2012). Sell.

[tudes100] 24/10/2013 06:56

EPS number is disappointing despite the impact of the acquisition this year. Great company with bags of potential but not sure what reaction we'll get to this given PER is 24ish.

[wjccghcc] 24/10/2013 06:54

They include the acquisition exceptional costs in the lower figure so the real one is between 9 and 10p as forecast.

[boros10] 24/10/2013 06:45

Penpoint. The note talks about about EBITDA per share not EPS. If you want to ignore depreciation and taxes fine - but you'll find yourself over paying for companies if you do. It also seems as if around £800k of what looks like capitalised development cost acquired with the acquisition has been written off and offset by the creation of new intangibles - whose subsequent amortisation management is encouraging you to ignore!

[stegrego] 24/10/2013 06:45

As they don't actually mention EPS in any of the text, I'd say it's the lower figure that is correct, otherwise they would be shouting it from the rooftops.

Looks pretty expensive to me.

[penpont] 24/10/2013 06:33

Somewhat confused by the presentation of eps here. Is the actual figure the 13.48p adjusted as in note 5 and not the 8.4p shown above this? WHI were forecasting 10.3 so the former would be a considerable beat.

[stewy_18] 21/10/2013 08:55

My views on the latest RNS:-

[apad] 08/10/2013 11:56

Stewy,
I tend to favour your viewpoint, although I didn't top slice. I expected a sideways to downwards drift and I am concerned about cash flow as a function of price.
apad

[stewy_18] 08/10/2013 09:15

Indeed,

It is taunting me:( Giving me my just rewards for topslicing at 180 pence. We will have to wait until the results. Either the market knows something I don't or if the EPS are in line with forecasts (10.6 pence), I would expect to see a pull back. Roll on the results.

[m1das_touch] 08/10/2013 08:45

I'm amazed that the share-price just keeps climbing, slowly but steadily, with very few pull-backs. I bought in at 163p having read an article in IC and followed that up with some research.

It's tempting to take some profits, but at the same time this company looks to have excellent organic growth prospects, a fast growing dividend (last year's covered 18x!) and a good history of executing earnings-enhancing acquisitions...on balance I think worth holding for the long-term.

[buffetteer] 22/9/2013 19:05

Stewy
I am also disappointed with 10.6 p if it transpires.however we all know they are awaiting a framework agreement for Mpec and until that arrives sales have been patchy. I think it's a case of short term delay rather than no prospects. The shares have I guess been strong due to the general market rather than anything the company has done this year. I give them anther 12 months and lets see. The reality is a cant see a much better opportunity for that cash. Most f the market is v expensive and everything cheap is cheap for a good reason.

[kalkanite] 20/9/2013 20:15

Damning report on Network Rail in this article.....



Could be good news for Tracsis.

...If the infrastructure firm fails to hit its 92% target by spring, it faces a fine of about £75m from the regulator.

....The pressure is beginning to pile up on Network Rail over the way it maintains all those thousands of miles of track, signals and overhead power lines. The rail regulator recently waded in, with a report saying the company had taken its eye off the ball over repairs.

Clearly MPEC can and will play a big part in condition monitoring of the tracks. Tracsis needs to look at the technology out there to see what is available for overhead line condition monitoring to leverage their position within Network Rail.

K

[dewtrader] 10/9/2013 12:51

Added ahead of results in a month

[stewy_18] 10/9/2013 06:27

Buffetteer,

It's very easy to say things like that after a 7%ish rise in a day. With the results out in October, the forecast eps 10.3 pence, giving it a P/E ratio of about 19. It has nothing to do with the quality of the company, more the price you pay for it. Would you be a buyer at this price (190 pence)?

This was my reasoning for top slicing.

I agree it may not have been my best idea. I have never been good at trading in and out of shares, but I will reserve judgement on my decision until the results are released. My expected eps for this year was 13.6 pence and it seems they have missed that by some margin.

For the sake of clarity, I agree with you regarding the share price in 2016 but I would say TRCS is fully valued at the moment. Just my opinion.

[buffetteer] 09/9/2013 17:15

I dont understand top -slicing .You either like the company, think it has good prospects in which case stay in it (if its not vastly overvalued & we aren't) or you don't and therefore sell it.
If you top -slice your reducing your return potential considerably for a company you continue to like .
Here we have a classic case of a v.good company with strong growth prospects ,undervalued (net of cash),and looking to grow organically and by acquisition. it does not need to reinvest profits back in to the business so all the free cash can be used to grow (as the divi is tiny).
Management has proven to be v adept at buying undervalued co's and has good discipline in this area.
In my view you will regret selling now because in 3-5 years time it is likely to be a whole lot bigger (like double ).
bought in at 65p & increased upto 120p -not sure how many better uses of my money there are out there .
lets compare profits in Sept 2016 .

[m1das_touch] 09/9/2013 11:21

I was wondering too if it had been tipped somewhere stewy_18, although not seen anything myself. Perhaps strong buying is just in anticipation of positive results next month?

Great to see the share-price making new all-time highs. I only bought in at 162p last month, so top-slicing not in question for me yet!