Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[stewy_18] 09/9/2013 09:14

Was this tipped anywhere?? I should have known better to top slice :(

[cestnous] 29/8/2013 07:04

If HS2 is written off, I would expect a lot more cash to be made available for the rest of the rail network so that the loonies in government can can justify their U turn.

[buffetteer] 29/8/2013 06:51

Stewy
Read your analysis which seems spot on other than your forecast eps of 13.6.
I think it will more likely be similar to last year at about 10.9p due to the lumpiness (lack of) orders for Mpec.
It is this lack of forward sales commitment that worries me because it makes such a difference to their bottom line.
Software businesses are trading on over 18x now so if you remove the cash of over 20 p we are still undervalued .

[stewy_18] 22/8/2013 10:52

Hi Buffetteer,

I am the world's worst trader and I am not recommending this approach. Most of my time is spent working so I don't have the time, will or inclination to trade in and out of shares. My point was that the shares are looking pricey if 10.3 eps is what they expect for this year. However, I expect some sort of announcement towards the end of the year regarding MPEC sales and also some news on the Scandinavian proof of concept. For me, this should be the main driver for growth and imo this will re-rate the shares in any case.

Like you say, it is a waiting game. I certainly can't sell any as it is my entry for this years Nicky Fraser share competition.


All the best
Stuart

[buffetteer] 22/8/2013 10:35

Stewi
I like your train of thought but I dont agree at all with the strategy.
Its proven that those who trade miss out on the big unanticipated moves of shares which can happen any time .Ive held since 70p,topped up along the way and wait.
Its v .boring but works for companies who consistently grow profits.
I think there will be a lull until another takeover happens to boost the earnings (with £6m in cash that could translate into £2m pre-tax profits )and an a big deal for condition monitoring (which is very lumpy).

[tudes100] 22/8/2013 08:30

Anyone know if we're going to get an August trading statement this year ?

[cestnous] 14/8/2013 13:07

Stewi
I agree with your position here. I was lucky enough to bet in early here, but sold out @ about 165 which with hindsight was too early. Unless something unexpected happens, I would expect the resistance at around 184 to come into play so will expect to get in after the results, bwtfdik?

[stewy_18] 14/8/2013 11:45

If WH Irelands forecasts are correct (10.3 pence eps) surely it would be prudent to take all the money off the table (given current pe ratio is about 18), wait for the results to come out (which will surely result in a price drop?), and invest afterwards while waiting for the big contract news from Network rail and also the scandanavian pilot news.

Thats is what I would do if:-
1. I was any good at trading
2. Had a pair
3. Was completely sure there was no more positive news arriving before results

I have none of the necessary attributes to make that kind of call :(

Share price looks a bit toppy here though.

[stewy_18] 05/8/2013 20:52

Yes, indeed. That is one of the extracts from the last trading statement that got me excited. However, late 2013 means it will not be reflected in this years financial results.

[m1das_touch] 05/8/2013 15:23

There was this interesting little bit of info though in the trading update of 14 June:

The Group is currently involved in negotiations with a major customer to continue the next phase of a significant Framework Agreement for its condition monitoring technology. The timing of the prospective contract extension indicates that potential major orders for the Group are expected in late 2013 or early 2014, assuming successful renewal. A further update will be provided in due course.

[stewy_18] 05/8/2013 15:03

Thought it might have been tipped. It is a great company and will do over a 3 year time frame but if brokers notes are anything to go by this year might be a consolidation year for them. We will see.

[m1das_touch] 05/8/2013 14:54

Positive write-up on Tracsis in the IC this week - the company was picked up under its 'cheap, quality small-caps' stock screen.

Looks like an interesting little business, with excellent growth prospects and a very sensible and well thought through acquisition strategy according to its website

[yf23_1] 13/7/2013 10:55

track fault in France accident - maybe some selling avenue there.

[buffetteer] 13/7/2013 09:42

Your absolutely right Apad any dilution is bad and Trcs can afford to buy the shares in the market with their large cash pile.i was being flippant.

Don't think the results will be great this year end due to takeover costs and lack of orders for condition monitoring so we could see a continued drift in share price until better news breaks. I guess this is a lumpy sales business now which will mean lumpy results and therefore lumpy share price so u need to pick ur time well. Anyone have any views - all welcome ?
If we make 11p this time and the software market is priced at 16.9 x then we are about right.

[sparkymoc] 11/7/2013 18:48

Very high volume yesterday for no apparent reason?

[apad] 27/6/2013 14:12

Another 1% dilution today.
I care because it is significantly more than other small cos and typical of Leeds Uni companies.
apad

[buffetteer] 18/6/2013 16:17

I guess no-one will care about dilution if the eps grows 10% +

[kalkanite] 18/6/2013 12:14

Glad it's not just me thinking that they should be using some of that cash to purchase those shares.
Looks good for management with growing cash but is flattered by the share issuances. Not necessary in my opinion as management otherwise doing a great job.

[apad] 18/6/2013 09:50

1.56% increase in shares since the turn of the year.
0.4% divvy.

Harsh, moi!

apad

[stewy_18] 18/6/2013 09:21

A little harsh APAD, or am I being too sensitive? I don't see them as a company that dilutes their shareholders excessively, in fact their corporate governance is one of the reasons I am invested. 9000 shares is not going to cause massive dilution.

More concerned about the eps figure for this year TBH.

[apad] 18/6/2013 08:40

Still printing shares enthusiastically :-(
apad

[stewy_18] 16/6/2013 19:31

hxxp://www.ifamagazine.com/news/tracsis-stays-on-track-despite-order-delays/

[sparkymoc] 15/6/2013 03:29

It was a good report,numbers are good with some nice opportunities for positive trading updates on the horizon. PE is fine. Generally PE ratings have expanded this year but this one has lagged, leaving nice potential

[buffetteer] 14/6/2013 15:23

I ,for one,would be disappointed if earnings to 7/13 are only 10.5p.
They made almost 10p last year & interim profits are up over 50%.
There is also 24p of cash which (when extracted) puts them on probably 10-12x.
Too cheap for a business growing at this speed unless Im missing something.
Any other views ?

[anumidium] 14/6/2013 12:15

I make the trailing twelve month P/E 14 or 12 after netting off the cash. That is 11.5p EPS based on shares in issue today.

Elimination of surplus overheads will presumably have resulted in some "exceptional" restructuring costs hence they refer to underlying profits. Maybe this is reflected in the WH Ireland forecast?