Tracsis Share Discussion Threads

[stewy_18] 14/8/2013 12:45

If WH Irelands forecasts are correct (10.3 pence eps) surely it would be prudent to take all the money off the table (given current pe ratio is about 18), wait for the results to come out (which will surely result in a price drop?), and invest afterwards while waiting for the big contract news from Network rail and also the scandanavian pilot news.

Thats is what I would do if:-
1. I was any good at trading
2. Had a pair
3. Was completely sure there was no more positive news arriving before results

I have none of the necessary attributes to make that kind of call :(

Share price looks a bit toppy here though.

[stewy_18] 05/8/2013 21:52

Yes, indeed. That is one of the extracts from the last trading statement that got me excited. However, late 2013 means it will not be reflected in this years financial results.

[m1das_touch] 05/8/2013 16:23

There was this interesting little bit of info though in the trading update of 14 June:

The Group is currently involved in negotiations with a major customer to continue the next phase of a significant Framework Agreement for its condition monitoring technology. The timing of the prospective contract extension indicates that potential major orders for the Group are expected in late 2013 or early 2014, assuming successful renewal. A further update will be provided in due course.

[stewy_18] 05/8/2013 16:03

Thought it might have been tipped. It is a great company and will do over a 3 year time frame but if brokers notes are anything to go by this year might be a consolidation year for them. We will see.

[m1das_touch] 05/8/2013 15:54

Positive write-up on Tracsis in the IC this week - the company was picked up under its 'cheap, quality small-caps' stock screen.

Looks like an interesting little business, with excellent growth prospects and a very sensible and well thought through acquisition strategy according to its website

[yf23_1] 13/7/2013 11:55

track fault in France accident - maybe some selling avenue there.

[buffetteer] 13/7/2013 10:42

Your absolutely right Apad any dilution is bad and Trcs can afford to buy the shares in the market with their large cash pile.i was being flippant.

Don't think the results will be great this year end due to takeover costs and lack of orders for condition monitoring so we could see a continued drift in share price until better news breaks. I guess this is a lumpy sales business now which will mean lumpy results and therefore lumpy share price so u need to pick ur time well. Anyone have any views - all welcome ?
If we make 11p this time and the software market is priced at 16.9 x then we are about right.

[sparkymoc] 11/7/2013 19:48

Very high volume yesterday for no apparent reason?

[apad] 27/6/2013 15:12

Another 1% dilution today.
I care because it is significantly more than other small cos and typical of Leeds Uni companies.
apad

[buffetteer] 18/6/2013 17:17

I guess no-one will care about dilution if the eps grows 10% +

[kalkanite] 18/6/2013 13:14

Glad it's not just me thinking that they should be using some of that cash to purchase those shares.
Looks good for management with growing cash but is flattered by the share issuances. Not necessary in my opinion as management otherwise doing a great job.

[apad] 18/6/2013 10:50

1.56% increase in shares since the turn of the year.
0.4% divvy.

Harsh, moi!

apad

[stewy_18] 18/6/2013 10:21

A little harsh APAD, or am I being too sensitive? I don't see them as a company that dilutes their shareholders excessively, in fact their corporate governance is one of the reasons I am invested. 9000 shares is not going to cause massive dilution.

More concerned about the eps figure for this year TBH.

[apad] 18/6/2013 09:40

Still printing shares enthusiastically :-(
apad

[stewy_18] 16/6/2013 20:31

hxxp://www.ifamagazine.com/news/tracsis-stays-on-track-despite-order-delays/

[sparkymoc] 15/6/2013 04:29

It was a good report,numbers are good with some nice opportunities for positive trading updates on the horizon. PE is fine. Generally PE ratings have expanded this year but this one has lagged, leaving nice potential

[buffetteer] 14/6/2013 16:23

I ,for one,would be disappointed if earnings to 7/13 are only 10.5p.
They made almost 10p last year & interim profits are up over 50%.
There is also 24p of cash which (when extracted) puts them on probably 10-12x.
Too cheap for a business growing at this speed unless Im missing something.
Any other views ?

[anumidium] 14/6/2013 13:15

I make the trailing twelve month P/E 14 or 12 after netting off the cash. That is 11.5p EPS based on shares in issue today.

Elimination of surplus overheads will presumably have resulted in some "exceptional" restructuring costs hence they refer to underlying profits. Maybe this is reflected in the WH Ireland forecast?

[stewy_18] 14/6/2013 10:56

Gents,

Interesting comments. My predictions for this years EPS was 13.6 pence so looks like I was way out with my calculations. Especially because in the RNS they say "underlying profits are in line with previous market expectations".

I am excited about this RNS given the nature of what they were saying regarding MPEC. My analysis of it is posted here:-


I think we are at the beginning of the growth curve, so it is interesting to get contrairian views. Agree the price maybe a little bit toppy if eps is set for 10.3p. However, if we get any more news about new MPEC sales (Scandanavian pilot and 'next phase of a significant framework agreement'), I think there is a lot of upside from here.

All IMO

Comment welcome

Regards

Stuart

[whites10] 14/6/2013 10:50

I was bit 50/50 on this - but in the end decided to sell. A rather lacklustre statement today and although this is a very good company, it's not without risk and I will try my luck elsewhere.

[pj 1] 14/6/2013 09:28

Also on the sidelines although imo there is the possibility of news ref European market which could shoot this up

[marlint111] 14/6/2013 09:25

Rivaldo. I sold about a few months ago too after holding for around two years. Simply felt that the period of really rapid growth was over (at least for now), and the share price was pricing in too much growth, at a high multiple for what is still quite a small company.

I do love Tracsis though- I think they're a well run company, consistently profitable, good barriers to entry, and have a good track record (pun not intentional) of making good value acquisitions.

Just waiting for a better re-entry point

[rivaldo] 14/6/2013 09:22

Marlin, WH Ireland this morning reduced their forecast for this year to 10.3p EPS. Next year they go for 11.1p EPS. Their target price is 187p.

This is mainly due to a miss/lack of a large order in Condition Monitoring in the current period.

TRCS has had a good run, but I'll stay watching on the sidelines for the moment given a current year P/E of 15.8 which only falls to 14.7 next year (though I note TRCS' net cash). It just seems to me that TRCS may be in for a period of staleness/drift on a reasonably chunky rating, though that could change of course at any time with a large order or another acquisition.

[marlint111] 14/6/2013 09:05

Anyone have any idea what market expectations for EPS/Profit are? Can't find anything out there!

[jonnyno1] 14/6/2013 08:00

solid update, good to hear skyhigh is integrating well.

j.