Town Centre Securities Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 30/9/2019 15:10

Fascinating link, thanks @speesgh. Tho I do note the conclusion is not to buy!

"All told, I can’t really make a good case for considering TOWN instead of buying more Daejan or Mountview. That tells me I should not take TOWN any further, at least for now."

I used to live near the Merrion Centre, but not anymore. Was always a bit "low rent", but Morrisons made it. Can't see it going anywhere either up or down.


The car park comments are interesting. Put TOWN back on watchlist but will only buy if it drifts lower first (I think it will), & balanced against just how much other propco I have (loads of them).

Also interesting:

"While TOWN’s 57-year dividend has never suffered a cut, the group’s property valuations did suffer badly during the banking crash. NAV slumped almost 60% between 2006 and 2009, and book value still remains 30% — or approximately £70m — below its peak."

PS 50 years - who knows! ;)

[speedsgh] 26/9/2019 14:37

@Specto - Hehe. I dearly hope that in 50yrs time I will be mere fertiliser for the daisies. If not, I suspect that I will be experiencing a quality of life at a deep discount to that which I would prefer to be experiencing! :-)

I like to think of myself as a long term investor but 50yrs is probably beyond even my investment horizon.

[speedsgh] 26/9/2019 14:33

Even though it was written back in March 2018, the following Maynard Paton article is an excellent, highly informative, almost forensic analysis of TOWN at that point and much of it holds true today. A highly useful starting point for undertaking investment research on the company.

I note that at the time of writing the shares were trading at 281p which represented a 25% discount to the company's 375p NAV (as at 31/12/2017). Today the shares are trading at c185p which represents a 48% discount to the company's latest published NAV of 354p (as at 30/6/2019). There is also a very interesting graph (extracted from SharePad) which shows that the TOWN share price has pretty much consistently traded at a discount to NAV over the past 15-20yrs, albeit rarely as deep as the current discount.

[spectoacc] 26/9/2019 13:57

How old will you be in 50 years @speedsgh? ;)

(But largely agree, even tho not yet a holder).

[speedsgh] 26/9/2019 13:41

Whilst acknowledging that they are talking their own book below, I am inclined to agree with their statement below that in the long term the current share price will prove to have been an opportunity. In view of the board and their families' large shareholdings, I also suspect that there is low probability of the "59-year history of maintaining or increasing dividends" not continuing for years to come.

------------------------------------------------------

From the Finals...

Creating long-term value for shareholders

Our objective has always been to generate value for our shareholders, with a particular emphasis on income and dividend, and we are very proud of our unbroken, 59-year history of maintaining or increasing dividends. A source of frustration in recent times has been the disconnect between our share price and net asset value per share. We firmly believe that our long history of value creation combined with our material development pipeline should present an excellent investment opportunity for investors.

£1,000 invested in TCS shares 50 years ago would today be worth circa £580,700 on a total return basis, equivalent to a CAGR of 13.6% per annum (Source: Datastream). Furthermore, again over the last 50 years, the TCS share price has increased in value by an average annual rate of 9.1%, compared to the FTSE All Share at 7.0% (As at 9/8/19)

[topvest] 24/9/2019 20:43

Yes, fairly solid as companies go and on a massive discount. Will continue to hold. Not quite a buy yet until we get some bottoming on the share price.

[nickrl] 24/9/2019 18:28

Heavy interest burden is going to neutralise any divi increases for a while i suspect but nicely balanced portfolio now

[jonwig] 24/9/2019 15:01

A minor point: they've invested in an app called "yourparkingspace", which sounds as though it's not performing at all well. I attended a Foresight seminar a couple of weeks back, and they were making a similar investment in partnership with supermarkets (for VCT). I explained yourparkingspace to them, and they said, basically it was naff: an app could be written in no time, and there were no barriers to entry.

Obviously that's a minor point, but I think they could be more open.

On car-parking, they have a monopoly for such as the Leeds Armouries Museum. (You've no alternative unless you want a hike!) It's fully-automated with NPR.

[spectoacc] 24/9/2019 14:44

I was probably distracting you on another thread @Jonwig ;)

[jonwig] 24/9/2019 14:41

They released these at 07:00 - how did I miss them??

[spectoacc] 24/9/2019 14:33

Bit of a NAV drop but starting to interest me now. I think it'll go back lower first mind - property/anything remotely retail is so deeply unloved. There's some dirt cheap stuff out there that's going to get cheaper still.

(EPIC, TOWN on my watchlist).

[castleford tiger] 29/8/2019 17:40

Tipped to today by Redmayne B.

dm me a e mail address if you want it

tiger

ps happen to agree far too cheap

[strathroyal] 29/8/2019 16:04

I see they updated the burlington house website earlier this week, their first PRS scheme. 87 of 91 flats let so looks pretty successful although they still haven't stated how they will finance future projects with Eider House next up.

[jonwig] 29/8/2019 06:29

Thanks, welcome anything you find!

[speedsgh] 28/8/2019 22:07

Jonwig - Have kept half an eye on TCSC/TOWN over a number of years but only noticed recently how cheap it has seemingly become. May be a reason for it but suspect it is simply out of favour like most of its sector peers. The current discount to NAV is far wider than it has been in recent years. That is doubtless due in part to the market discounting further NAV reductions in advance. But has this been overdone?Just starting on detailed research so will let you know if I uncover anything of interest. I often like family-run businesses. As an income investor their dividend track record certainly appeals & with the Ziff concert party (wider family & trusts) making up just over 50% of the share register, there's a decent probability that track record will continue. But I am aware that strong family representation on both the board & the share register can be a double-edged sword. Looking forward to getting under the bonnet, so to speak.

[jonwig] 28/8/2019 17:23

speeds - yes, I really ought to revisit this - it got through the GFC without essential damage (except to the share price).

I guess there's a development discount, and the debt of course. But £106m of this is a debenture due 2031 so it's not an immediate concern.

A few years ago I attended an AGM. Ziff was dismissive and unwilling to answer my questions more than perfunctorily. Fortunately the FD and a NED were quite friendly and made up for that. That FD left shortly after, and I've wondered how collegiate the board are: if it's a Ziff and family dominated company there's potential for overreach.

[speedsgh] 28/8/2019 16:52

Starting to look interesting here.

From most recent Edison note on 18/7/19:
"As a family run business, TCS has a strong focus on dividends and has increased
or maintained DPS in each of the last 58 years, while investing for growth."



Currently trading at 47% discount to last declared NAV of 361p (as at 31/12/18) based on current offer price of 190p. Historical dividend yield 6.2% (FY18 DPS 11.75p).

[castleford tiger] 07/8/2019 18:41

CHEERS I AM STILL BUYING

TIGER

[jonwig] 20/7/2019 11:38

strathroyal - thanks for that. Actually I've stopped following TOWN for the present, though the discount is beginning to look excessive.

Incidentally, Edison produced another note this week.

[strathroyal] 20/7/2019 11:32

I don't know if anyone is following the Burlington House PRS but it does appear to be letting ok with the website showing 64 of the 91 flats as being let at some decent rental levels. As to how TCS will develop future schemes if they intend to retain these properties, it looks like they are trying to dispose of a number of their Scottish properties.

I see that Shandwick Place is Under Offer, and that the Princes Street property, kilmarnock High Street and Grove House are all up for sale. If sold, these will bring in £4M+.

[jonwig] 28/1/2019 06:37

Edison note, dated 25/01:

[aishah] 27/1/2019 21:52

On my watchlist post the TMI coverage. Not pulling the trigger just yet but looks very interesting

[spob] 27/1/2019 18:17

was sent a free copy of the february momentum newsletter

they have tipped town in a double page write up


might see a bounce monday


mentions

reduction in retail exposure over the last few years

42% discount to nav

5.2% yield

no divi cut in 58 years

current development pipeline could double rents and push up nav by 50%

loan to value only 45%


i hold these already

but really should buy some more


i like to buy when the whole market is in full blown panic mode

hopefully the monkeys running our country will oblige :)

[jonwig] 21/1/2019 07:10

Trading update:



They seem to be managing assets (and problems with retail) very well.

[jonwig] 30/11/2018 08:51

Yes, the Intu flop, I guess. And that was caused by "Brexit uncertainty" according to the FT.