Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 24/8/2021 10:31

L2: 3 v 2 / 83p v 85p (rest between 86p and 93p)

[1domus] 24/8/2021 10:05

The pressure recorders have been pulled. And they are still crushing numbers.

The final result will probably not be material. The Cruseformation was never a target, but became one of interest after the wellfailure. The Cruseformation stretches all over the block, and can be a source for so called bread and butter wells. We’ll see.

[mount teide] 24/8/2021 10:00

L2: Opened 1 v 1 / 81p v 83p .......... now 2 v 1 / 83p v 84p (rest between 85p and 90p)

[awise355] 24/8/2021 09:52

There are also some flow details on the 24 hour test 0.35MMCF

[homebrewruss] 24/8/2021 09:31

RE Chinook, they did say this in the Q2 RNS
'Perforated and initiated production testing of the Cruse Formation in the Chinook-1 well, with final results expected in late August 2021.'

[thebull8] 24/8/2021 09:08

Around 45-60 days from spud on 12 August. My guess is closer to 45 days given they are 3500ft down already and probably won't go to total depth

[11_percent] 24/8/2021 09:02

The big ticket items are now:

Royston

and

The Big Short.

[zeusfurla] 24/8/2021 08:55

Since I am raising concerns this morning here is my last one. I am less anxious about TXP finding gas at Royston than in their ability to drill a clean hole to the required depth. I appreciate they will use the best expertise they can find but that is a bigger risk to me than discovering commercial quantities of gas. Although this ie exploration as Paul has said a few times before. Having said all that Cascadura is clearly not priced in at the moment. A share price closer to 110-120p would be fairer value in my view.

[jason_scrap] 24/8/2021 08:55

Hi guys, what's the expected eta for Royston target depth please? Bit out of touch with the story lately. Thanks in advance

[dunderheed] 24/8/2021 08:49

S93, completely concur, "emotional closure" is a little kind though.
On the lines of "to be perceived as professional outfit" would be more fitting, imho.

[spangle93] 24/8/2021 08:28

Pro - how do you know the recorders are not already pulled? I think that's the point that is being made. We shareholders have spent many $MMs on Chinook, but now there is silence, like it never happened, though the halved share price is evidence that it did.

Next time you are in touch with Paul, it would be great if you could suggest that for our emotional closure we should at least expect to hear and see the Chinook-1 post mortem results, and learn of the company's planned path forward for the structure.

[mynameiskhan] 24/8/2021 08:21

I believe, the near term catalyst is Royston result.Chinook is almost written off & it's wipes out from company valuation. So, Chinook is abit irrelevant at the moment.It will be Royston, that will be transformational for the company

[onedayrodders] 24/8/2021 08:10

Thought we'd covered that ... new conservative approach .. under promise / commit ... then over deliver

[pro_s2009] 24/8/2021 08:09

There is nothing to say about Chinook until the pressure recorders are pulled up and all the data analysed.

[zeusfurla] 24/8/2021 07:54

Pro I also valued yesterday's interview and it reminded us all of the potential upside which may come next year.

But 2 major concerns from me - will the dates be met? Why no transparency on Chinook? My preference is for companies to come clean on what doesn't work as well as set out the positives in a best case scenario. I have lost a degree of trust in Paul - he is not a mid-cap leader in my view. I will wait on the sidelines before buying more. Although I do still strongly believe in the business case maybe we need to strengthen management experience on the Board?

[pro_s2009] 24/8/2021 00:46

Production guidance would suggest:

2022 Production

2000 BOPD OIL (South West license areas)
+
3450 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura Deep 1) based on initial 20mmscf/d (can rise to 25)
+
400 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura Deep 1)
+
6900 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura 1 ST) based on initial 40mmscf/d (can rise to 50)
+
1100 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura 1 ST)
+
1700 BOEPD GAS (Coho-1)

Total = 15,550 BOEPD from when Cascadura is online.

However.....there is potential upside by year end !

Royston-1 success case
Possible extra 5000 BOEPD GAS by year end 2022

Casca-1 and Casca-Deep-1 continue cleaning up and finished 2022 year end +15mmscf/d which is extra 2550 BOEPD

So base case :

TXP will be producing circa
3700 BOEPD average in H1 2022

and

15,550 BOEPD average in H2 2022

And if Royston-1 succeeds and delivers initial 5000boepd, TXP should exit 2022 with circa 20,000 BOEPD production (or even 22,500 BOEPD if the Casca wells clean up more)


However, if they proceed in Q2 2022 with infill drilling at Cascadura and bang in another 3 or 4 development wells, they could end 2022 with a much higher than 20,000 boepd production rate..........


And all of that, except Royston, is PROVEN and FLOW TESTED reserves, verified. Not "maybe" not "hope to flow" not "hope to find".

[pro_s2009] 24/8/2021 00:46

Production guidance would suggest:

2022 Production

2000 BOPD OIL (South West license areas)
+
3450 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura Deep 1) based on initial 20mmscf/d (can rise to 25)
+
400 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura Deep 1)
+
6900 BOEPD GAS (Cascadura 1 ST) based on initial 40mmscf/d (can rise to 50)
+
1100 BOPD LIQUIDS (Cascadura 1 ST)
+
1700 BOEPD GAS (Coho-1)

Total = 15,550 BOEPD from when Cascadura is online.

However.....there is potential upside by year end !

Royston-1 success case
Possible extra 5000 BOEPD GAS by year end 2022

Casca-1 and Casca-Deep-1 continue cleaning up and finished 2022 year end +15mmscf/d which is extra 2550 BOEPD

So base case :

TXP will be producing circa
3700 BOEPD average in H1 2022

and

15,550 BOEPD average in H2 2022

And if Royston-1 succeeds and delivers initial 5000boepd, TXP should exit 2022 with circa 20,000 BOEPD production (or even 22,500 BOEPD if the Casca wells clean up more)


However, if they proceed in Q2 2022 with infill drilling at Cascadura and bang in another 3 or 4 development wells, they could end 2022 with a much higher than 20,000 boepd production rate..........


And all of that, except Royston, is PROVEN and FLOW TESTED reserves, verified. Not "maybe" not "hope to flow" not "hope to find".

[pro_s2009] 24/8/2021 00:28

A good interview with Paul. Youtube link below :




Looking good if Cascadura can be online by April 2022, thats massive cashflow coming in and opens the door to take on new debt in Q2 2022 to fund development of Cascadura and Royston (in the success case for Royston). Which allows cash from operations to fund phase 2 exploration in H2 2022 (thats Guabine, Steelhead, Bass and Krakken).

Some talk around of a further 2 wells (on top of the planned 4) in the South West oilfields, which would be possible if Coho is on line by December this year.

No equity dilution, thats a big bonus that they are fully funded and planned until Cascadura is online.

The boot now swings on to the other foot. Someone has borrowed 9 million shares from CREST, is paying to borrow them and sold them. They, at some point, have to buy them back and hand those shares back to CREST.

The share price should be around circa 150p at the moment based on the proven reserves and resources only......excluding the potential up to 2000p upside from the over 20 Ortoire prospects that will be drilled in the coming 5 years. Its down where it is thanks to whoever borrowed those 9 millions shares from CREST and sold them, but they do have to buy them back and return to CREST......that will be fun.

[pro_s2009] 24/8/2021 00:28

A good interview with Paul. Youtube link below :




Looking good if Cascadura can be online by April 2022, thats massive cashflow coming in and opens the door to take on new debt in Q2 2022 to fund development of Cascadura and Royston (in the success case for Royston). Which allows cash from operations to fund phase 2 exploration in H2 2022 (thats Guabine, Steelhead, Bass and Krakken).

Some talk around of a further 2 wells (on top of the planned 4) in the South West oilfields, which would be possible if Coho is on line by December this year.

No equity dilution, thats a big bonus that they are fully funded and planned until Cascadura is online.

The boot now swings on to the other foot. Someone has borrowed 9 million shares from CREST, is paying to borrow them and sold them. They, at some point, have to buy them back and hand those shares back to CREST.

The share price should be around circa 150p at the moment based on the proven reserves and resources only......excluding the potential up to 2000p upside from the over 20 Ortoire prospects that will be drilled in the coming 5 years. Its down where it is thanks to whoever borrowed those 9 millions shares from CREST and sold them, but they do have to buy them back and return to CREST......that will be fun.

[dunderheed] 23/8/2021 21:30

Agree re Chinook but the latest results still need releasing when known and there should have been a reference to it in interview today because it looks stupid to stick your hands over your ears pretending it didn't "happen".
Whilst I realise today was a good news promo Chinook is still potentially an interesting puzzle, unless they know otherwise and, should be "sold" as that, rather than "ignoring" it.

[davidblack] 23/8/2021 20:59

Chinook the believe is an oil discovery but bring it up just brings back past doubts and what’s the point when the most likely next drill for it is 2023.

It’s the right call to park it in PR terms but spend the next 24 months unpuzzling the required answers.

[herman007] 23/8/2021 20:07

With regards to Chinook, I was in contact with the company today. They are very clear about the fact that there will be no more news regarding Chinook, something that surprised me quite a bit. When you say A you say B, but it seems they have moved on or there is some internal misunderstanding. In any case, now the focus should be on Royston. PB has been singing its praises for years, and now TD is only 5-6 weeks away…:-)

[thommie] 23/8/2021 19:54

as long as we have domus around we will always know things before they are released. unbelievable. watching the proactive interview I thought PB is reading your posts on this bb :) maybe in reality you are him! :/)3500feet in 10days at royston sounds fast to me. expected far less tbh. but I guess the speed will slow down the deeper they get. drilling through the hopefully high pressurised big gas bearing zones and hopefully reaching 10 000 feet to finally fulfill the licence commitments.'we far understated the size of cascadura. planned production is 200mmcf/d, starting with 90 mmcf/d.'the recent received seismic data is brillant, so I hope in line with their drilling plan for royston that was based on the old seismic data.results of royston at early october. start of coho production at 1.12. or earlier if weather stays dryer than expected.start of 90mmscf/d plus liquids at cascadura early april. no equity raise needed till cascadura online. (they can do one after that if they wish to, I wont care, as I expect it to be far less diluting at a hopefully much higher sp) coho might give 0,4-0,5mio/month. casca should give around 7mio/month once online. plus base production income. I have no doubt that they will be able to use 2 rigs 365days a year from that point on to drill development and further exploration wells on the block! I still cant believe we are shipping around in the 80's.... the only thing I missed was to sell when it was 180p and buy back when it was 70-80p. it's sometimes hard to be bad at trading /being mainly a long term holder.

[mount teide] 23/8/2021 17:56

Yes, thanks DB.

With an expected 10-15 fold increase in production over the next 6-9 months (all high margin and fully funded) together with a similar size increase likely over the following 12 months(also from proven reserves), TXP will be a very much different company in terms of production and cash flow generation by this time next year.

Should any of the very low drill and development cost ultra high impact exploration targets, like the 0.5 Tcf 'Royston' prospect, prove successful, the risk reward at the current valuation is extraordinary.

AIMHO/DYOR