Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[grannyboy] 11/5/2018 11:43

Good posts from che7win, crooky, and especially ZENGAS in response to 'doubters' like otemple3..

[che7win] 11/5/2018 11:42

The chart here looks ready to curve up imminently imho.

[che7win] 11/5/2018 11:41

Zengas,
good post.

So really, I think we should be trading at 30p right now.

[sleveen] 11/5/2018 11:31

wrt to ENQ and PMO, both have large debts but both are up around 30% in the past month since POO has risen.

I would expect a rerate to reflect POO increase.

[crooky1967] 11/5/2018 11:25

TXP has drilled 5 wells this year with 5 to follow by August 2018. With probable plans to drill more in the second half of the year especially as the POO is so high and likely to continue.

They must be near 2000 bopd with a plan in place to get to 5000 in 2020. With netback currently around $32 a barrel there is no reason why they can't continue to invest in more wells while reducing debt.

[zengas] 11/5/2018 11:21

The debt was taken on at a much lower oil price to advance drilling.
Seriously why does everyone think that the focus should be to clear the loan ?

The terms of it don't start until next Jan and even then it's only a small repayment. They may never clear the debt or want to as production/reserves growth continues. It's only a $15m loan and even then likely they would re-finance it as they continue to grow. Trin haven't added any production of note in the last 20 months and of what they have TXP has matched it from a much smaller operational point of view and added 20% net reserves in the process in 12 months and which I again expect to be achieved this year on the reserves front.

Trin 2700 bopd/ 20 mmbo P2 and £72.3m m/cap @ 25.6p.
TXP 1700 bopd/18.5 mmbo P2 and £17.9m m/cap @ 13.85p.

TXP should at least be closer to a £40m m/cap. (CERP @ 5.25p = £34m m/cap and 540 bopd, 11.8 mmbo 2P and imo will need more cash ie dilution or likewise debt to grow.)

If we get a decent update on this last batch of wells then I view TXP as the best value in terms of all three companies.

[che7win] 11/5/2018 11:03

TXP is expanding production by at least 30%, if not more on the 10 drills.

They took 2 rigs, when TRIN stalled on expansion this year. I think they will expand aggressively and will surprise more to the upside than TRIN.

TRIN also has more risk with offshore, so for me TXP is the better play.

[otemple3] 11/5/2018 10:45

I get the operational leverage but I am not investing here as have not (yet) seen enough to convince me on sustainable production growth. Market seems (to me) less interested in leverage based companies (enquest, prem) at the moment. Just think it is overly simplistic to say both are t&t so both should behave the same. Trin management have transformed the business and the share price is reacting accordingly. The recent price of oil is imho a small factor in this. Txp has also increased as poo has.

[che7win] 11/5/2018 10:28

For one reason, TXP has higher gearing than TRIN, it should outperform with POO rises.

It is also growing production faster, expansion at cheap cost.

[otemple3] 11/5/2018 10:26

Why should this catch up with trin? They are completely different businesses with different risk profiles. If txp can prove they can grow production sustainably and therefore clear the debt, they will re-rate. Trin is already there

[sleveen] 11/5/2018 10:08

Agree, Q1 update can't be far off to show production progress.

[che7win] 11/5/2018 10:04

At last on the move, should be over 20p to catch up on TRIN

[2prsimo] 11/5/2018 09:01

Just too cheap given the poo

[phowdo] 11/5/2018 09:00

Looking a bit better now with narrower spread. Perhaps that line of stock cleared.

[mr. t] 10/5/2018 16:30

Fair point!

[mr. t] 10/5/2018 15:47

Also topped up today.I appreciate the SPT means the oil price rise doesn't all flow through to profits. But still, the recent movement in Brent, combined with output getting towards 2k boepd, combined with TXP being highly geared - all leads to the share price moving up. And at some point, I think the sentiment to oil stocks will improve with the higher oil prices.

[crooky1967] 10/5/2018 15:10

How does that drop 15% on 1400 shares?

[grannyboy] 10/5/2018 13:31

Yes you could be right ZENGAS..and might be a reason why rossanna hasn't had a reply to his query of the missing well, which we might get in any update?.

[zengas] 10/5/2018 13:23

An update on operations must be imminent imo.

They were issued at about 2 monthly intervals -
14/9/17.
28/11/17.
16/1/18.
14/3/18.

[mount teide] 10/5/2018 01:34

Funds bet on $150 oil as Trump blunders into Middle-East battlefield by rejecting Iran deal



Donald Trump could scarcely have chosen a more treacherous economic moment to tear up the “decaying and rotten deal” with Iran. The world crude market is already tightening very fast.

Joint production curbs by Opec and Russia have cleared the four-year glut of oil. There is no longer an ample safety buffer against supply shocks. The geopolitical "premium" on prices has returned.

The Maduro regime in Venezuela is in its last agonies. The country’s oil industry is imploding as spare parts run out, taking 700,000 barrels a day (b/d) off the global market over the last year.

North America has hit an infrastructure crunch. There are not yet enough pipelines to keep pace with shale oil output from the Permian Basin of West Texas, and it is much the same story in the Alberta tar sands.

The prospect of losing a chunk of Iranian oil exports would not have mattered much a year ago. It certainly matters now. It is the confluence of simmering political crises in so many places – including Libya – that has driven Brent crude to $77 a barrel, up 60pc since last June.

"We believe an oil price shock is looming as early as 2019 as several elements combine to form a ‘perfect storm’," said Westbeck Capital. It predicts $100 crude in short order, with $150 coming into sight as the world faces a crunch all too reminiscent of July 2008.

The fund warns that the investment collapse since 2014 is about to deliver its inevitable sting. Declining fields are not being replaced. Output from conventional projects has until now been rising but the cycle will turn this year and production will fall precipitously by 1.5m b/d in 2019. By then global spare capacity will be down to a lethally thin 1pc. US shale cannot plug the full gap. "The mantra after 2014 of 'lower for longer' has lulled oil analysts into a torpor," it said.