Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 03/3/2021 10:10

I'd also argue that without positive flow test results we have nothing. So whilst it's looking good it could still smack us in the face.

[davidblack] 03/3/2021 10:00

Which is why we are here.

Your specific “Question Marks” are hopefully going to be answered pretty soon and at that point we should be in the £3+ area pre Royston?

Ok maybe £2.25 in this subdued environment?

[thebull8] 03/3/2021 09:50

Spot on sir

[buffythebuffoon] 03/3/2021 09:48

Pro,

There will be others elsewhere asking the same questions about the company they are invested in, be it commodities or any other potential growth share.

I have a large position here, so obviously I have the same positive view of the company’s prospects. If I were to try to be negative I might say:

The T&T government might impose an extension to the SPT to include gas.

TXP haven’t produced enough gas to rival that of some cowboys sitting round a fire eating beans.

Exploration is risky whatever you think the COS is. etc, etc

Buffy

[che7win] 03/3/2021 09:30

David, The markets are moving away from tech stocks because bond yields have been rising.That is precisely why I want to be in TXP which is inflation proof - oil/gas is a great sector to be in and should outperform.I hope we have inflation indexing built into our gas prices - think we do.

[davidblack] 03/3/2021 08:40

The move by institutional money away from growth towards value to offset the likely increase in long term bond yields because of inflation concerns has unsettled all these growth and recent momentum shares with TXP no exception.

Chip in IG massively removing AIM leverage and a herd of fragile sellers trying to sell smaller speculative stocks and it created the perfect squeeze on shares like TXP.

But the Coho pipeline is being laid and once that’s done the Cascadura/Chinook pipeline is pending.

So TXP is quickly going to become an earnings play too with that institutional money coming back for its dividends but blended with huge growth upside.

Also the Cascadura/Chinnok pipeline is slated for 100m MCFPD production “This Year” which should yield about $125,000 a day post tax inc liquids.

The C&C pipeline capacity has been slated to be 250m MCFPD so clearly the extra drill holes heading for C&C are going to mean that revenue will rise at least double.

So with Coho and legacy income of $0.5m per month post tax plus another $3.75m per month at 100m MCFPD for Cascadura/Chinook gives $51m USD.

And set to double once the infill drills are in and tied back thats $100m of post tax revenues potentially pre Royston and Steelhead.

Guessing news on Monday as it would be poor PR to do so tomorrow with the appointment of Trinidad native Xavier Moonan to be the head of exploration yesterday. That was a very strong message of local engagement and TXP will want that to get the headlines over the weekend press and not cloud it will drill news.

Apparently the ups and downs of TXP is now important local news in Trinidad because of the potential for local jobs in the downstream plants.

So now Mr Baay has a new audience to keep happy with the upside that local decision makers may well speed up timelines for approvals etc as local jobs matter.

[78steve] 03/3/2021 07:27

Agree market is still asleep with TXP's potential. It'll wake up one day but it'll be too late for some by then. Exciting to be in a share like this though i can't find another which comes even close to it. I might be wrong. Dyor

[pro_s2009] 03/3/2021 07:15

HK, I have to keep writing it as it keeps me asking myself have I missed anything ?

Why are people dumping money into high risk stuff when this offers similar upside with very very much lower risk ?

I think, from share price action, TXP is suffering from last years success aligning with UK tax year end in April, and likely Rosyton drill results in late May/June.

A lot of people with tax losses which can be used against TXP gains for a "bed and breakfast"......

I think they are willing to miss out on flow test results as they want to be sold for 30 days and buy back in before Royston.

Hence with IG and also April UK tax year end it explains the current weakness, which is most strange but there are reasons that can be seen for it.

[herschel k] 03/3/2021 07:07

Perfect summary I said this was shaping up to be "another cove energy" months and months ago I've changed my mind It will be way better

[thommie] 03/3/2021 06:42

Interesting appointment series lately..

[thebull8] 03/3/2021 06:28

That's known targets too! With Cascadura Deep they found additional gas they didn't know was there. If you read the RNS from Cascadura Deep carefully it states "The Cascadura Deep-1 well is the best well we have drilled on the Ortoire property to date and it has provided three key pieces of information, primarily that the Cascadura field has numerous targets with each one of the thrust sheets providing its own unique opportunity"To me they are saying any additional production wells drilled at Cascadura Deep will target additional gas targets. So along with. The 10k BOPDE you get from each drill you will also be getting an increase to the reserve. A two for one offerNot many shares out there this cheap that offer such excellent earnings potential in the near term and discovery potential in the long term

[pro_s2009] 03/3/2021 04:24

Going to be a busy man.

I think far too many people are ignoring the basics when it comes to TXP. PB is a conservative man.


PB has said Chinook is World Class (same as Cascadura).

PB has said there is "10 years of drilling ahead on Ortoire". That means they have so many targets there its going to take 10 years of drilling to drill them all.


10 years of exploration.......for anyone who can understand that means likely in the region of 10 TCF of recoverable gas is going to be targeted, and if these sub thrusts come in good, there might be more than that.

I find it amazing you have a company with so much exploration upside, so much current discovery in the bag, who will have a wall of cash coming in in 2022......all in one company. Its very unique.

[soggy] 03/3/2021 00:23

Well deserved indeed, but I do hope it won't silence him - his commentary has been very useful...

[captainfatcat] 02/3/2021 22:51

Well deserved congratulations to him.

[homebrewruss] 02/3/2021 22:02

Xavier has been promoted to the management team as Manager of Exploration

[johntobin] 02/3/2021 13:03

I understood synthetic muds also reduced friction and power required which was an issue.

[rovi70] 02/3/2021 12:34

ALL information is good to share even with a small tenuous link to TPX Thanks tb8

[che7win] 02/3/2021 11:59

I don't care about Hurricane, can we please keep this as an informative TXP board.I do not wish to celebrate others misfortune.

[captainfatcat] 02/3/2021 11:58

Thanks pro

[thebull8] 02/3/2021 11:51

I notice Hurricane is top of the loser board today. Hi Leoneobull

[spangle93] 02/3/2021 09:56

Very good post Pro, thanks for sharing.

Only points to note is that you test from the bottom up, so the target order is reversed from what Margin321 wrote and if you had insufficient mud density to prevent a kick, it wouldn't matter what the mud chemistry was. Mud chemistry does not affect management of pressure.

Synthetic oil is more expensive but has historically given better performance than water based mud, particularly in respect of preventing formation damage in reservoirs and preventing shales from time-delayed collapse (cf PANR's completely avoidable repetition of the PS#1 collapse)

[lazarus2010] 02/3/2021 09:24

Pro/margins - fantastic post, thought it was an email reply by the company!!

[pro_s2009] 02/3/2021 03:53

A good post by margin21 over at Stockhouse which summarizes things nicely.



Margin321 March 01, 2021 - 07:21 PM

You are right that the TXP story is discovery driven, and we will get new data soon on two additional wells.

The other difference is that these TXP discovery wells are conventional wells with reservoirs of overpressurized natural gas in sand sheets capped by good seals. The 10mmcf shale wells in the Montney will produce at high level for a few months and even the best will have exponential decay of production. To keep production flat will require and ongoing drilling program. And the wells are releatively expensive with long laterals that have to be intensely fracked.

As for the TXP wells, one vertical straw will drain Coho for 10-15 years or more. 4 -8 vertical straws will drain Cascadura and produce at pretty good rate for 10-15 years and more. Wells are cheaper and no additional wells are needed after they get on production. The Central block gas field to the south and west is owned by Shell and is still producing at 50% of initial rate after more than 20 years.

Information on the Chinook disocvery well will be available in weeks. (The Cascadura Deep well is really on extension of the original Cascadura well, only 900 feet away and has already shown extremely high pressure gas flowing to the surface during drilling - so no surprises are expected there). Chinook a a deeper and broader structure, much bigger in area than Cascadura. The results will be totally exciting. And will be available soon, in weeks, maybe even March 10, at least partial results then.

Chinook well is testing three pay zones. I kind of hope we get them altogether because he lowest one is a wildcard and may or may not be exciting.

The first target in Gr7a section of Herrera (still plenty deep as this a broader flat structure rather than the taller structure at Cascadura) is 341 feet of pay between 8154 and 8710.

The secondary target in Gr7bc section is 180 feet of pay. Both these targets were supported by old data from the BW-7X well.

The Chinook well was supposed to stop at 9830 feet. But they ran into another hydrocarbon bearing sand, also in Grbc7 section. They had not expected to find this and decided to continue deeper. They discovered another 68 feet of net pay between 9750 and 10003. That is the deepest well onshore Trinidad in over a decade.

So flow rates on this lowest and deepest section (and not suspected) zone will be interesting but might not have any bearing on productivity of higher targets 1 and 2.

None of these zones were hugely over pressurized and kicked back gas to surface as happened at both Cascadura well. They did use a synthetic oil based mud system after that initial experience at Cascadura1-ST and apparently had no problems with handling the pressures at Chinook. However when they went back to Cascadura Deep the same thing happened which made them realize that really had to get that bigger rig going.

It is fortunate they salvaged the well bores at the two Cascadura wells (even though they had to stop drilling early in both cases) because TXP story would not be nearly as advanced as it is and we probably also would not have been able to negotiate the NGC contract.

[pro_s2009] 02/3/2021 01:41

The man says........ World Class Exploration Discoveries (PLURAL).....so I take it Chinook testing is looking good, else it would only be Casca and so, not plural.

:)