Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 14/10/2020 16:00

In the interview PB commented on “They ran out of rig” for the bottom hydrocarbon sand zone!

So just how deep is it?

[herschel k] 14/10/2020 15:55

Buffy,

I might be wrong here (or misheard it), but didn't PB state in the interview following the $20m credit facility that they closed in June, that they had scope to extend that amount upwards if necessary?

Surely, as it will be development well drilling, not further exploration, this is the route TXP will pursue?

H

[buffythebuffoon] 14/10/2020 15:44

Hi Spangle,

I get that the geology is complex. Over the years many a company has struggled with unlocking the mysteries of the various types of stratigraphic traps for example.

Surely the more we drill, the more we will learn about the extent and orientation of the thrust sheets, traps etc (etc means I can’t fill in the other dots).

While we have undeniably picked the low hanging fruit, with all those prospects, won’t we be able to target some that only need a step ladder?

SOU found out that drilling in areas where the geology is complex means you need to be well funded, as you will have failures. They just didn’t have enough success to be able to get enough RBL to do it properly in Morocco. Petroceltic faced similar problems in Algeria; although they were further hampered by having to drill in areas that they’d rather have avoided, but couldn’t, because of the conditions of the licence.

Given the success so far here, that shouldn’t be a problem. I know that Paul said he wouldn’t borrow money for exploration, but to drill several of the other Ortoire prospects reasonably quickly i.e. in the next 18 months, we may need funding. Perhaps others more able can make a case for us being able to drill at a reasonable rate just from production income. My gut tells me sufficient cashflow for that is too far off.

Buffy

[pro_s2009] 14/10/2020 15:42

Thanks SOS100.

A few words from Paul here in this quick interview following todays news.



.

[herschel k] 14/10/2020 15:39

I just amended my post to say the same thing Pro, thanks.

[herschel k] 14/10/2020 15:38

thanks hbr - my mistake then - I will amend my original post

[pro_s2009] 14/10/2020 15:37

589/777 x 400 x 1.5 = 450 BCF

Chinook will be bigger than Cascadura imo.

[lord gnome] 14/10/2020 15:34

FWIW, IC has just confirmed its existing BUY rec for TXP at 114p.

[ngms27] 14/10/2020 15:25

Cascadura is around 250BCF P2 according to TXPs website.I'm pretty confident I'm in the right ball park re Chinook and over a TCF is very unlikely.

[homebrewruss] 14/10/2020 15:21

Herschel, I'm not sure of the exact dimensions but I think the 4x refers to the volume and that was before they found so much pay at Cascadura.
If you look at the acreage and net pay in this presentation, Chinook is approx 1.5x the acreage of Cascadura and with more net pay but with what they since found at Cascadura we know that net pay figure is different.

[ngms27] 14/10/2020 15:05

For once I'd like to be proved materially wrong!

[homebrewruss] 14/10/2020 15:05

I thought the areal extent of Chinook was approximately 1.5x that of Cascadura.
Also I think 400bcf (best estimate) was gross for Cascadura with 75% of that being recoverable (ie 300bcf)

[cashandcard] 14/10/2020 14:59

Herschel,


Agree - was thinking that aswell. Always knew NGMS would try and deramp even at this stage ;)


Cash

[ngms27] 14/10/2020 14:41

Recoverable :)

[spangle93] 14/10/2020 14:37

in place or recoverable?

[ngms27] 14/10/2020 14:37

Anyone care to take a stab at the size of today's discovery?I'm going for 325BCF

[mystery_machine] 14/10/2020 14:27

1.17GBP is exactly $2.00CAD

[erinho] 14/10/2020 14:24

Inthemix remember the 3.25cad price target was before the result on Chinook :)

[soggy] 14/10/2020 14:22

Ahh - looked it up. 2.30 our time.

Will be interesting if they push it further... Find out in 7 minutes time!

[inthemix] 14/10/2020 14:17

Cormark Securities initiated coverage of Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TXP-T) with a "buy" rating and $3.25 target. The average of the Street is currently $1.73.Touchstone (TXP-T, $1.32) – Buy, 3.25 Target, Garett Ursu: We are initiating research coverage on Touchstone Exploration. Details: As detailed in our "Emerging Ideas" report from May 29th, Touchstone Exploration's Ortoire block onshore Trinidad has already provided investors with impressive stock market gains and behind-pipe production that will increase corporate volumes exponentially over the next 3-12 months. Near-term activity should also continue to unlock material untapped resources with the Chinook-1 well (200 Bcf prospect) currently drilling, to be followed by the Cascadura Deep well (500 Bcf plus liquids) prior to year-end. An additional 21 exploration prospects have the potential to individually move the stock and boost future volumes. Based on our current 25 MBOE/d forecast and the attractive operating regime in Trinidad for natural gas (supply/demand, pricing, tax, regulatory, counterparty risk, economics, etc.) we believe Touchstone could generate ~$65 MM of free cash flow in 2022. With results expected shortly from the high-impact Chinook-1 exploration well, we believe Touchstone is a unique and timely E&P investment opportunity.Recommendation: We are initiating coverage on Touchstone Exploration with a Buy rating and C$3.25 target (3.0x 2022 EV/EBITDA). Not only is the company's exploration upside not being valued in the market, but the company's past success is also being heavily discounted given potential volume growth and free cash flow through 2022. – GU

[soggy] 14/10/2020 14:14

When does Canada open, or has it already?