Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[kaos3] 04/11/2024 17:21

red - you are realistic and experienced the real life and did something about it. no nonsense. I can feel it.

do not take any of my posts seriously in any way. most of the times I am just having stupid fun or babling along. not funny.

on a serious note my bet is that geology will lead the donkey to a promised land. hence i remain invested.

thanks to Monkey , DavidBlack, SP93 i did a lot of broader reading on the regional geology. I remain optimistic.

[1domus] 04/11/2024 16:53

Yup, there it was. Not Nov 15 as was suggested on these pages.
Keep in mind that these wells are delineation wells. They are not development wells like the ones on pad B.

This has to be taken into consideration when you are doing your expectations regarding flow from these wells.
Do not have too high figures. I do not think they will do 60 combined. It is better being surprised positively than thd opposite.
Btw, I have called this a kinder egg week.
Let us see what else it brings😊

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 16:41

kaos

If I was on the board, I think it might be enough to concentrate the mind for the odd month or six.

Been there, wrote the book and made the film in a former life.

red

[kaos3] 04/11/2024 16:34

is that all....

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 15:48

John

You might call me a pessimist, but that has to be sustained over a period of time that allows the rest of the business model to work.
Positive sufficient regular cash flow to:
1. Pay off the interest and loans - particularly the last one!
2. Provide enough working capital to finance the next planned developmenmts to expand the business.
4. Provide capital for investment in assets to expand the business.
5. Generate sufficient cash resources to stabilise the business going forward.
6. In the very distant future give a return to shareholders.

[johnoxxx] 04/11/2024 15:35

Red - surely the two wells at Cas A have already shown you the cost vs return benefit even just to date? Look at the income generated from them, sure it was on a slide in TXP latest presentation.

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 15:30

John

Seen it before elsewhere.
Complex geology defeats the drill.
Initial flows aren't sustained over a longer cycle without further drilling at marginal income/cost benefit.

red

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 15:26

Spangle

I was just about to post the amendment.
Lazy on my part.

red

[johnoxxx] 04/11/2024 15:24

Good job these are gas wells then with potentially some NGL’s.

[spangle93] 04/11/2024 15:23

or the gas ;-)

But you are correct. The first two wells that are on production were drilled as appraisal wells, indeed the first was just to twin with an existing historic well. Through these wells, the field discovery was made and reserves were banked (though like Coho, it will be interesting to see whether with increasing production history and the revelation of bi-modal flow, these reserves figures are retained during the annual scrutiny)

Cas-2 and Cas-3 also have an appraisal element in them (step outs from the known area) but drilled with validation of the 3D structural model, drilling and completion experience from Ortoire wells, and with a primary goal of production.

I'm still clinging to the hope that these wells, rather than -1X and 1-Deep, will point to what the field is capable of, and that it's better than has been achieved to date. There's a difference between hope and confidence

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 15:07

If I were a betting man, my odds would be on the geology defeating them such that they cannot extract the oil in sufficiently commercial volumes.

red

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 15:04

KS

Based on the info at the time, it was very plausible.
There have obviously been a few hiccups since then!

Agreed, at some point the elastic will snap if they cannot monetise the asset. More than enough time has elapsed, and in the interim they have had to go cap in hand for another loan when PB said emphatically that further borrowing would not not needed!

red

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 14:49

Or scrambled perhaps?

Not boiled?

red

[king suarez] 04/11/2024 14:48

Red: Yes, I did put together a cashflow model for TXP at the time. It was my best attempt given the info we were told at the time (and it was checked for validity by their finance team). It still 'works' as nothing has changed re the modelling but the production hasn't yet lived up to expectations (obviously)!

These next 2 wells are pretty key and I'll wait to see what the testing results are before considering whether to add/sell/hold etc. Obviously TXP has disappointed the last few years, but it feels like momentum could build from here if these wells are successful - cash flow to speed things up.

Am heavily invested in AXL and agree that should also do well from here.

[ashkv] 04/11/2024 14:48

Egg chasers brains are clearly fried :)

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 14:42

Egg

If you are referring to me, please send some fresh eggs. My chickens died of starvation and old age, waiting for the oil to flow.

red

[eggchaser] 04/11/2024 14:22

Not seeking to be malicious but clearly not a holder of the stock - so exactly why did you feel the need to post your drivel??Yet another faceless troll no doubt sat in his bedroom watching repeat episodes of Bay Watch and a half empty box of tissues with nothing better to do...Bless his cotton little socks...

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 14:14

KS posted a long cash flow model projection, around then, from memory.

red

[redartbmud] 04/11/2024 14:12

WOT about them who bought at 146p against a £200m or $200m "guatenteed" wall of cash within weeks?
It was transformational then!!

Couple of years ago now maybe.

red

[johnoxxx] 04/11/2024 13:50

I’m not sitting at anywhere near a 70-80% loss but thank you anyway for all your knowledgeable posts…

[ashkv] 04/11/2024 13:41

I am not seeking to be malicious - this is a share I know well and I am communicating my own concerns re the share.

I do hope I am proven wrong - but even at 30p - I didn't choose to invest in TXP as it is too risky / uncertain for me...

Good luck with your investment... hope I am wrong...

[ashkv] 04/11/2024 13:40

Also what is the Coho output at present?? Go back and do your homework on the expectations that the geniuses at TXP had guided for that reservoir....

[ashkv] 04/11/2024 13:39

If you had traded on my insight into TXP - you would have saved a lot of money rather than sitting at 70-80% losses...

Buy AXL - it will outperform TXP....

I will bookmark this post....

Johnoxxx4 Nov '24 - 13:36 - 38319 of 38319
0 0 0
Good post K.S, always a good laugh to read Ash’ posts. And always plenty of rubbish to point out regarding his posts. Strange he only turns up when the share price is up to comment some misleading information.

[johnoxxx] 04/11/2024 13:36

Good post K.S, always a good laugh to read Ash’ posts. And always plenty of rubbish to point out regarding his posts. Strange he only turns up when the share price is up to comment some misleading information.

[ashkv] 04/11/2024 13:34

Given what the expectation was for Cascadura and the guidance for the year / which has been heavily slashed and likely will be further downgraded.....

It conveys that TXP's Cascadura reservoir modelng/performance guidance is still a big question mark!! Therefore hints of Hurricane Energy - For Hurricane Energy oil was present but not to the extent initally outlined by third party expert CPRs... ergo the similarly with TXP.

""Hints of Hurricane Energy about TXP!!!"

No "

Also if production was outperforming - it would be expected that TXP should mention the same in an update nearly 6 week on from the prior ops update.

As I conveyed when information is omitted by TXP it is more often a flashing indicator that all is not well....