Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[junky monkey] 09/8/2018 10:53

I don't see anything wrong with the update today, TXP is absolutely on track to reach the 2000 BOPD goal by the end of the year, it will likely be more than 2000. The production was 1757 while the average was 1717. We're only 250 away from 2000, with several wells left yet to contribute this year. On top of that TXP have increased the number of potential targets in Ortoire. Reading the details gives good insight into the initial kick of production while the pressure reduces, and is the clear reason they delay including production figures for the new wells. Paul communicates very well, and I don't think he has an ounce of slippery sneaky CEO in him at all like you see in a lot of different companies. I have close to 0,3% of the company, and so will use this pullback to get to the rounded 0,3% if I get the chance in Toronto. When it comes to Ross, I think he has likely had some shares earlier and tried to play around trading them and watched as the train left without being able to get back on. There isn't any other reason to put such a negative spin on what clearly is a well run company that is executing more than 100% on their stated goals and timeline. Thanks MT for the good reading. I see we read some of the same stuff, but you have a long cycle view this is interesting and something I need to incorporate more into my thinking. Investing is a life long school, and also something you can do your whole life as a hobby. Thanks to others as well for the good reading.

[buffythebuffoon] 09/8/2018 10:42

rossannan, a simple google of the term would have sufficed.

Just discovering the synonym ‘Nerve Compression Syndrome’ would surely have enlightened you.

Buffy

[fardels bear] 09/8/2018 10:37

So, the traders sold out yesterday, and today they surface creating discord to try to drive down the price. By now they'll have bought back in at a lower price, and will disappear back under their stones. All save the Lord of Missile.Weak holders who sold out will scratch their heads at the bounce..The world and the market marches on.

[che7win] 09/8/2018 10:36

Moving back onto 20s, nice topping up opportunity.Worth 30p now imho

[captainfatcat] 09/8/2018 10:31

I had hoped the headline share price would be higher but had not realised the requirement to test deeper levels or the amount of time this would take (obvious now) and the knock on this has in bringing on production from actual targeted formation. Its no biggy in my book, good progress continues to be made and as we can see from WD4 update this approach has the potential to substantially increase production further down the line if comingling is achievable.

I like the news of WD4 and WD8 particularly with the potential to increase production via comingling formations (maybe this might extend across both blocks) and book new reserves if successful.

Bring it on.

[marvelman] 09/8/2018 10:25

and on and on and...…..

[buffythebuffoon] 09/8/2018 10:13

Rossannan, you clearly are less educated than you try to portray, as you demonstrated when not understanding my one liner following your Carpal Tunnel Syndrome comment.

Anyone who has half a brain knows you want the price lower. You may have pocket money in TXP, so you might correctly have asserted you are a shareholder, but you likely want to buy more, and want it even cheaper than it is.

It’s possible you may be right about a placing, but why not make the comment and leave it there?

You are clearly one of those insecure individuals who take satisfaction from bating people. Truly confident, intelligent individuals make a comment and let it stand on its own merits. People will evaluate the wisdom of any post and make their own judgement. Constant repeating of an opinion gives the impression that the poster is more concerned with trying to impress, rather than impart information.

I can’t recall you ever making a truly positive comment here, and with all the excellent work that this company has produced, I find that incontrovertible evidence that you are disingenuous.

Buffy

[mount teide] 09/8/2018 10:12

L2: 1 v 3 / 19.0p v 20.0p

Advfn's charts continue to be behind the curve.

[mount teide] 09/8/2018 10:07

Sleeven - 'Overly optimistic production and financial forecasts have caused a modest fall in the share price '

The projections for the 2018 10 well production development programme, not unreasonably, were based on the performance of the four 2017 wells - which collectively are still producing an average of 91.25bopd some 15 months after going into production.

'For example no one guessed the effect of having to drill into deeper sections of sands to fulfill the license requirements'

Targeting the deeper plays has delivered an average production rate from the 2017 wells close to double the historic average from the shallower plays - so it has proved to be based on sound technical analysis.

[sleveen] 09/8/2018 09:51

Spangle93

That sounds right, but your optimism would be as a result of TXP's optimism?

Regardless, I'm now expecting a consolidation period over the next month or so.

The interims should make interesting reading, the cash flow statement in particular.

[spangle93] 09/8/2018 09:49

Sleveen - ref 2453.
Maybe the difference between what you posted and CFC's point is that I think you're implying the company was optimistic in what it's said, whereas CFC (and I earlier) were indicating that we ourselves had hoped to see higher figures?

Anyway, the price is back to where we were excited to see it less than 2 weeks ago (!), so it's not too unhealthy.

[mount teide] 09/8/2018 09:43

Roos - Objective research shows the market that Paul Baay managed TXP's survival during the brutal oil sector downturn/recession considerably better than the management of TRIN who were extremely lucky to survive and avoid having their investments wiped out.

By stealing a march on the other T&T on-shore oilers by commencing a 14 well 2017-18 production development programme in Q2/2017 when oil was $44 and recovering strongly, Paul Baay is again showing as in 2000-2007, he is just as adept at managing the oil market recovery/boom stage and the huge opportunities it delivers.

The last 70 years has shown us that the highly cyclical commodity markets follow 10-20 year cycles, and once the tide changes direction it usually flows for between 5-10 years(with high volatility), before slowing and reversing. The oil industry is currently 2.0-2.5 years into a new recovery stage - the current tight market, sector fundamentals and 70 years of history, would suggest its likely to have at least another circa 3-7 years left to run.

Don't forget - post the 5-8 year average downturn/recession stage, commodity sector recovery stages "lift all boats" as a result of strongly rising prices and the highly conditioned 'fat free' lean-ness of the survivors. It is a relatively low risk investment environment where even the poorly managed company's with modest assets do reasonably well, while the best managed with high quality assets have an opportunity to really make hay that comes along only once every 15-20 years.


AIMHO/DYOR

[mr. t] 09/8/2018 09:40

Shanklin, TXP has to sell it's oil to the local oil company at a discount to Brent so I think Stockopedia's number is about right using the assumptions you've given.

[sleveen] 09/8/2018 09:40

captainfatcat,

Isn't that the point that ross and flyinghorse have been making?

Overly optimistic production and financial forecasts have caused a modest fall in the share price

For example no one guessed the effect of having to drill into deeper sections of sands to fulfill the license requirements

[marvelman] 09/8/2018 09:35

Mount Teide continues to be one of the foremost quality posters on this forum and indeed on many other boards. His research is second to none as is his honesty regarding his investments. I see the constant baiting of him as puerile and would ask those concerned to allow the rest of us to learn from his research and enjoy being part of what still remains a very informative thread. We do not always have to agree with his views but we should state facts rather than conjecture when making the case against.

[captainfatcat] 09/8/2018 09:29

Myself along with many others I guess have optimistically hoped that this would be the rns with the 2000bopd headline.

Despite it not being so and the initial share price reaction todays rns update on reflection has a significant amount of interesting and positive information contained within it.


The company continues to make good progress inline with its own forecasts which will do me fine and is exciting enough on its own.

Good things come to those who wait

Tick Tock

[hpotter] 09/8/2018 09:25

Posting at 07.05h with an objective analysis of a complex RNS reminds me of TV quiz contestants who press the button without having the answer.

[tektonik] 09/8/2018 09:20

Filtered as well. They've offered nothing insightful or justifiable to this thread.

[awise355] 09/8/2018 09:19

Ditto good call