Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 09/8/2018 08:36

Ross - TXP budget for 2018's programme of work was based on $55 oil.

As discussed before, with oil currently averaging circa $72 in 2018 - the current and forecast cash flow for 2018 should provide TXP with plenty of options for 2019.

A 10-15 well 2019 production development programme and 4 Ortoire wells (2 H1/2018 and 2 H2/2018) would probably be comfortable at $70-$75 oil.


zho- yes indeed, a typo - will correct.

[zho] 09/8/2018 08:29

Touchstone Exploration Inc (LON:TXP, TSE:TXP) told investors that production in the second quarter averaged 1,717 barrels per day thanks in part to the success of four wells drilled last year and as new wells drilled this year come online.

It marks an 11% improvement from the first quarter and 29% versus the comparative quarter of 2017.

Three of five new wells are online, adding an average of 184 bpd in the month of July, meanwhile, the Trinidad focused oil firm noted that pre-drill operations are presently underway for its next scheduled well at the WD-8 block.

[marvelman] 09/8/2018 08:22

Ross...are you actually invested here?...your reaction to the RNS and previously posted observations don't appear to equate with someone with a financial interest in this stock....just wondering.

[mount teide] 09/8/2018 08:20

2018 Production Development Programme to date:

Q1/2018 - 1,543 bopd
Q2/2018 - 1,717 bopd (Includes production from three 2018 wells)
July/18 - 1,757 bopd (Est)

4 further wells to be on production by end of August
3 further wells to be drilled Aug-Oct

[fardels bear] 09/8/2018 08:19

My bear is a verb, not a noun.

[spangle93] 09/8/2018 08:19

Don't think you're the only bear on this thread, Fardel

[mount teide] 09/8/2018 08:03

Ross - First seven wells (4 in 2017 and 3 in 2018) are currently producing at a combined average of 77.8 bopd.

Wells 4&5 have proven to be non commercial in the Cruse zone and are to be put on production in the primary zone by end of August.

Wells 6&7 - with the same combined circa 650ft of pay as the two high performing wells from this block CO-3068 and CO-3069 drilled in 2017, will be on production within 2 weeks.

Wells 8 spudded and 9&10 to be drilled.

[shanklin] 09/8/2018 07:59

Average production for the year of 1750bopd at an average of USD72/bo, with USD=1.3CAD equates to revenue of CAD59.8m, which is well above the current revenue forecast shown on Stockopedia of CAD50.8m.

I appreciate I am being a bit simplistic but what do you guys expect?

[deeppockets] 09/8/2018 07:54

I suppose year end target was 2k so they should easily beat that.

[spangle93] 09/8/2018 07:51

Awise - I have the same feeling - maybe it's cos they had the headline figure of 1821 for early June in the AGM that, with more wells to come online in the quarter, led to the expectation of a quarterly average above 1800. In other words, any disappointment was against my incorrect expectation rather than factual reading.

There's a lot of detail there to be absorbed though, for instance, (as Zengas details above) if "Current regulatory guidelines require deeper prospects to be tested for commerciality before moving up-hole." then some of the wells will not be contributing their full potential yet.

Note to me: Needs a bit of forensics on a per well basis

[zengas] 09/8/2018 07:47

Nothing to be unhappy about at 1757 bopd for July.

CO-370 & 371 to be on primary zone production before end of August.

CO-372 & 373 expected to be on production within next 2 weeks.

Another 2-3 weeks to close 2k bopd gap via 4 wells.

8th well spud imminently and 2 more to follow.

[rafieh] 09/8/2018 07:44

The current market cap equates to one and a half year profits at the current production level. That doesn't seem too demanding.

[the big fella] 09/8/2018 07:34

Indeed but one shouldn’t ignore its debt which is roughly equivalent to its equity valuation.

[awise355] 09/8/2018 07:34

Post script. Re-reading it again isn't half as bad as the first time. It is just he headline figure, give the company time to optimise and add further bopd whilst the remaining come on-line, think Bay maybe just need to tweak how he manages the markets expectations..

[awise355] 09/8/2018 07:27

Let's all remember to balance the market cap against the current production.

[deeppockets] 09/8/2018 07:26

Zengas, are you happy with that then, I know you understand the O&G stocks better than most.

[mr.oz] 09/8/2018 07:24

Will be ambitious to expect those remaining 7 to contribute by year end if 4 not contributing now?

[zengas] 09/8/2018 07:18

Healthy rise to 1757 bopd for all of July.

This years drill programme was for 10 wells.

4 of the 7 wells that are drilled, still to come on stream and 3 more yet to drill with No 8 ready to spud.

Up to 7 wells in total to contribute to further production.

[someuwin] 09/8/2018 07:16

Paul Baay, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"I am pleased to report that we now have drilled the first seven wells of the ten well program. With four of the seven wells yet to contribute to our current stabilized production, we are excited to increase production in the near-term. With the combination of these four wells and the remaining three to be drilled this year, we are looking forward to a strong start to 2019. In addition to the existing drilling program, the Ortoire exploration opportunities and future development potential are expected to contribute to our robust growth objectives going forward."