Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[zengas] 19/10/2017 13:01

Don't misunderstand me. I don't believe TXP should be valued at or more now than Trin. It couldn't.

What i'm saying is TXP should be closing the valuation gap over the next 2-3 quarters of where Trin is currently - ie valued at £54m today (compared to £15.5m for TXP) which would be a 52p target for TXP.

Meanwhile Trins programme/growth should also be moving ahead over the next few quarters and likewise increasing its own m/cap value in turn. I've always believed Trin was undervalued since the earlier part of the year and has only recently started to fulfil some of that. Likewise I expect TXPs value to be realised with patience just as Trin investors have had to be. In turn you have to look at how far both can go from the next phases. I keep in mind when a company get's to significant production and stronger valuation, it then has the ability to add assets, either production or exploration or a combination of both to aid further growth as well if an opportunity arises.

[jungmana] 19/10/2017 12:42

Zen - am in both Trin and TXP. Though we are undervalued today but trin should be valued more than us.Trin currently produce 2600bopd and target 3000bopd by year end.They have near $12m in cash and expecting shortly another $4.55m from sale of a non core asset.Even when you compare netbacks, reserves, debts etc trin should be at least 70% valued more than txp.Imo right now fair value for trin is about 34p (£100m) and TXP 39p (£40m).

[che7win] 19/10/2017 12:39

Zengas,
and TRIN is rising too as it rerates.

Could be a 4 bagger from here in 12 months, think that presentation will makes the market sit up - 10 year drill programme - 208 wells, accelerating under any tax changes.

Potential is enormous IMHO

Deeppockets - they are cash flow positive now.

[deeppockets] 19/10/2017 12:39

What is the approx Bopd needed to become profitable for the company, after which profits should grow steadily as they add more!

[mount teide] 19/10/2017 12:35

2018 Drilling programme - up to 20 wells ALL to be drilled down to the untapped deeper targets and 24 well workovers.

If as management expects, the 20 wells go on to collectively perform in line with the recent four drilled into the deeper targets at circa 80 bopd - that suggests a potential further 1,600 bopd of further production on top of the circa 2,000 bopd target after these next 4 wells!

Never mind the 2,000 Bopd by 2018, it could well be above 3,000 bopd by the end of 2018, and ALL SELF FUNDING!

[wheniamfree] 19/10/2017 12:09

Working now

[zengas] 19/10/2017 12:00

4 wells by year end to be drilled and might run into the first few weeks Jan. Sites already being prepared.

Says he is expecting the 2,000 bopd target in Q1.
If so and then when you add in the continuous drill programme, they could add significant production beyond that Q1 figure.

Lot's of low risk drilling and untapped deeper targets to potentially add reserves.

With todays Q1 target of 2k bopd, surely now much closer to narrowing the valuation gap over the next 2-3 quarters to todays £54.4m valuation of Trin at 19.25p. Would give a share price target of 52p.

[wheniamfree] 19/10/2017 11:53

Looks like VTM have messed up the webinar I’ve contacted them to get it corrected

[wheniamfree] 19/10/2017 11:33

Webinar available

[wheniamfree] 19/10/2017 10:49

Taken a few more this morning.

[sleveen] 19/10/2017 10:29

Thanks che7win.

[che7win] 19/10/2017 09:43

Someone posted a question last night about comparison to TRIN.

I thought he wouldn't answer it, but he was very diplomatic, he very clearly thinks this is undervalued and part of the reason they listed in London is because they looked at other operators and want a fairer rerate of the shares.

He is also aligned with ourselves with a vested interest in the business.

I like him, quite open, said they tried to buy some of TRIN's assets last year but seems there was some red tape stopped it - others can expand or hopefully the presentation goes online today.

[che7win] 19/10/2017 09:36

sleveen,
thats what he said - I couldn't hear everything very well so want to listen to the presentation again.

Others can confirm.

Paul said they want CONTINUOUS drilling next year - about 20 wells, at one stage he said they could have two drill rigs running if they wanted but they won't consider that for now.

There are plenty of prospects for them. Some of their wells have been running since the 70's (on the businesses they took over), but now do a few barrels of oil per day, these are resilient prospects, so low risk to me...

[jungmana] 19/10/2017 09:34

Imo this is an easy bagger from here within 2/3 months.Gla

[sleveen] 19/10/2017 09:32

che7win

...ach well about 15 days do drill and internally funded!


Were you told that or is that your interpretation?

[parob] 19/10/2017 09:31

Grabbed a few more under 15p. If the last few days are anything to go by, we could end the day blue!

[trapissed monk] 19/10/2017 09:31

Still waiting!

[che7win] 19/10/2017 09:28

The company doesn't declare flow rates until 90 days after pumping - this is a conservative company, underplaying IMHO.

They sell direct to State oil company - so get Brent minus 12-13% prices but have no transportation costs, refining to do or find customers - and paid promptly 25th of each month, removes a lot of headaches for them!

Also I think they are getting very good turnkey prices for the cost to drill the next 4 wells.

They are currently cash flow positive, I asked three questions I think Paul answered, well worth going to. The opex metrics will get better as they expand production.

Continuous drilling next year - each well about 15 days to drill and internally funded!

[che7win] 19/10/2017 09:06

I guess you completely missed the presentation last night, nor have you compared metrics here with other Trinidad operators.

[honestmarty] 19/10/2017 08:39

Like I said they tend to hunt in packs...

[wheniamfree] 19/10/2017 08:35

Honest your talking out your backside, show me another profitable company producing this much oil with reserves in place for £15m

[sja123] 19/10/2017 08:21

mmmmmmm....I should have worked that into the post john henry! :-)

[john henry] 19/10/2017 08:12

Perhaps not that honest SJA

[qs99] 19/10/2017 08:12

great, with that sort of demand, 20p next stop, GLA and DYOR