Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 10/10/2017 23:31

What do others think of the tax changes and its effect here? Should help prospects, TRIN management thinks so:TIDMTRINTrinity Exploration & Production03 October 2017Trinity Exploration & Production plc("Trinity" or "the Group" or "the Company")Trinidad and Tobago 2018 Budget HighlightsTrinity, the independent E&P company focused on Trinidad and Tobago is pleased to note proposed reforms encouraging investment in the energy sector included in yesterday's Budget Statement in Trinidad, which could have a positive impact on future trading for the Company.The Statement specifically addresses the Energy Tax Regime:We have started a review of the energy tax regime in order to simplify and rationalise the terms of both Production licences and Production Sharing contracts. The main objectives of this reform are to encourage investment in the energy sector and raise the Government's revenue-takeCritical areas being addressed are:-- Making the Supplemental Petroleum Tax responsive not to price but to underlying profitability;-- Extending the Supplemental Petroleum Tax to gas, which is now the country's main petroleum product;-- Reconciling and simplifying the fiscal regimes applicable to the exploration and production and production sharing systems; and-- Standardising and uniformly applying appropriate royalty rates to all crude oil, condensate and gas.Negotiations between the energy companies and the Government are well advanced and we expect to be in a position to present the new oil and gas fiscal regime before the end of this year.*Bruce A. I. Dingwall CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented:"This could prove to be an extremely important change for the Company in terms of bottom line economics and Company valuation. The Government is aligned with Trinity in seeking to increase oil production and once the terms of the changes to SPT are clear we will then be in a position to quantify what the effect on the Company will be."On the face of it this announcement looks like good news and we continue to work hard on building on the strong first half and look forward to updating the market further in due course."* extract taken from full Budget Statement available here Enquiries:

[zengas] 10/10/2017 22:08

Brasso - no i'm not being defensive (just my writing style - so apologies if that has come across that way). Don't get me wrong I have nothing against CERP. If I did I could chip on the CERP board but don't. CERP won't be profitable either even at 1k bopd taking into account cost of sales which does give a small gross profit but admin will wipe it out (see the accounts). CERP had circa $6m debt/liabilities also. I said they would be either debt increasing or dilution (raised £3m yesterday and in process of another £1m).

Re Schroders, Any institutional holding in a company is welcome. North Energy Capital of Norway have in the last 2 months taken up over 5% of TXP.

(As of 28th Sept 2017 Goldman Sachs own 1.3%, ABI 14.5% and Celisa Captal 6% of North Energy)

[carpadium] 10/10/2017 21:51

I know where Schroders have put their money and know the reason why they choose to back Columbus in Trinidad. Leo Koot.

[wheniamfree] 10/10/2017 21:45

They’re already producing at 1590bopd which may show further increase on Q3 results, that is fact so how have they not increased?

That also excludes the 4 additional wells being planned for year end so id expect 2000bopd.

Nobody is dissing CERP they are merely highlighting the obvious fact that TXP should be 3-4x it’s current value on comparison to its peers who are doing exactly the same thing.

Now where would you put your money with such an obvious abondance of upside potentials?

[lw425] 10/10/2017 21:39

All the facts here point to mid teens this week.

Production is over 1500 bopd with 4 new drills by end Dec.

15p is only 15m market cap.

Only about 100m shares in issue so should move up sharply now.

[brasso3] 10/10/2017 21:36

Zengas

You are being very defensive and I was only adding my own observations to your comparison. I did not even comment on TRIN!

CERP do not have a drilling programme planned yet you have referred to a 10 well programme. They are doing workovers only at present some of which cost less than $10k a well and have yielded increase of 25 - 50 BOPD. You are correct to point out that the BoD have done an excellent job raising £4m at a price of 5p which was above the 30 day average share price and far beyond the year low of sub 2p.

You state that TXP are aiming for 2000 BOPD in 2018 but over the last 5 years have failed to increase production from the 1200 - 1300 range. I am not saying they will not increase production but history can give an indication of the future.

[zengas] 10/10/2017 21:07

Brasso - do you read anything or only see what you want to see ? or miss completely the above post ?. Trin have significant debt incase you didn't know and CERP are taking on a further $750k being diluted. Also look at the actual cash reserve.

So what have I said is wrong since I posted that 3 weeks ago. CERP diluted yesterday/today since that post was made. They are going to drill. I don't have to attend presentations in London.

They raised £3m yesterday and 60m shares issued today.
Also in the process of another £1m open offer with 20m new shares to come.
On top of that Lind have said they are going to exercise their right to convert $750k debt.

CERP - "Confirmation from Lind that they will exercise their right to provide an additional US$750k convertible loan to the Company in Q4 2017" - signed off by Leo Koot - 4 weeks ago. That's Linds right not Cerps.

And to be doubly sure 11/9/17 - "Lind has also informed the Company that it intends on exercising its exclusive right to increase the Funding Agreement by US$750,000 (the "Second Tranche"), with the funds to be provided to Columbus in Q4 2017. - ie a further 8m shares.

LK can aim closer for 1,000 bopd but it's still well below TXPs 1500 now. TXP are aiming for a lot more than 2K bopd not only in production but growing their reserves further.

I could see your argument if there was a few million mkt cap difference but it is almost 5X in favour of CERP despite only having 1/3rd TXP revenues and current production never mind lesser reserves. Regardless of any possible push into any other territory, TXP are doing exactly what CERP are doing in terms of production, water flood opps and additional exploration potential.

[brasso3] 10/10/2017 20:37

Zengas

Your comparisons of T & T companies are based on production and reserves. They do not however take into account that TXP has more debt ($15m) and smaller operational netbacks than CERP. I have not looked into TRIN so cannot comment on that.

Also you state that CERP are planning to drill 10 wells which is not true. "Plan to drill 10 wells at $500k each = $5m so debt or dilution will rise in line and $750k" That was Neil Ritson's plan and he is history as that strategy was flawed.

PS Leo Koot has told the market about CERPs conservative target of 550 BOPD by year end but if you had of attended company presentations in London you would know that he is aiming for closer to 1000 BOPD before end of 2017.

I would agree that TXP is good value based on P2 reserves and production.

[jungmana] 10/10/2017 19:45

Zengas - good update there. So based on today's values txp should be about 45p compared to cerp and about 52p compared to Trin. Stunning undervaluation here

[lw425] 10/10/2017 18:56

Yes Jung. It's a stunning undervaluation. Zengas highlights it perfectly.


Comparative valuation from ZENGAS:

ZENGAS
3 Oct '17 - 12:04 - 880 of 891 5 0
Worth waiting on imo because sooner or later it can't be ignored on pure value level. It's doing exactly as the others in terms of forward plans.

Cerp 5.75p = £32m m/cap.
11.8 mmbo P2. 550 bopd target end 2017 - 900 mid 2018.
-------------------------------------
Trin 15p = £42.5m m/cap.
18.7 mmbo P2. 2,395 bopd with 3,000 bopd target.
-----------------------------------
TXP 8.6p = £8.9m m/cap.
15.68 mmbo P2. 1,500 bopd with 2,000 bopd target.

On a comparable M/Cap to CERP = 31p (yet TXP having 25% greater reserves and nearly 3X production). To Trin = 41p as it closes the production/reserves gap.

[jungmana] 10/10/2017 18:00

LW yes I agree. Too cheap today. Have a look at Zengas's numbers. Comparing with Trin at 15p this should be about 41p.

[lw425] 10/10/2017 17:34

Market cap is insanely low here, under 10m.

4 more wells to drilled before end of year and 2 well workovers a month

In 2018, 10 to 20 new wells drilled and 2 well workovers a month.

1591 bopd in August already.

Should be comfortably mid 20's.

i.m.o.

[lw425] 10/10/2017 15:57

Can't even buy 10000 shares at 9.5p

Can see this hitting mid teens quite easily over the next few days as retail wake up to the extreme undervaluation here compared to it's peers.

Should really be price mid 20's for now then a further rerating as the drilling upside kicks in.

[jungmana] 10/10/2017 15:54

Someone is mopping all the loose stock in 100ks.

[jungmana] 10/10/2017 14:55

At some stage they will have to let it go. I know what you mean but in last 8 years i made some good money on dual listed stocks. I can see this 2 bagging in the short term.

[che7win] 10/10/2017 14:39

I don't like dual listed stocks as much, gives MMs a way out sometimes it seems

[che7win] 10/10/2017 13:27

Dropping the bid in desperation in the face of buys keep coming in.

Serious trouble for the MMs here me thinks.

[jungmana] 10/10/2017 13:26

The 100k is a buy reported late. Playing catch up. Need 40p to get parity with Trin and about 60p for cerp.Incredible!

[someuwin] 10/10/2017 13:26

Incredibly cheap here.

[che7win] 10/10/2017 13:22

MT, I'm not surprised, it has been virtually all buys this morning, bound to be short of stock.

[mount teide] 10/10/2017 13:19

Scap are desperate for stock - now on the bid at 9.75, but willing to pay 9.84p for just 10k of stock.

[che7win] 10/10/2017 13:16

Fantastic performance, a lot of upside here.I wonder how Canada will react to the rise? TPL brings back nightmares to me.

[mount teide] 10/10/2017 13:08

Scap just jumped up to 9.5p from 9p on the bid

L2 now 1 v 1 (9.5p v 9.75p)

[jungmana] 10/10/2017 12:39

Added by selling out my last lot of CERP. Now this and TRIN are my only oilers. The herd is definitely on the way :-)