Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[ileeman] 20/11/2018 10:19

Never nice to see price down especially on a company that continues to deliver but on a plus managed to get my average down from 19p to 15-16p so very happy with that.

£18million mcap vs $12.5million-$15million cash generation per year.....

A few more director buys would go down a treat right now.

[celeritas] 20/11/2018 10:05

Added a few more, thanks Mrt.
This is really all about early next year for me so will just keep on dribbling in until then.

[che7win] 20/11/2018 10:03

I would agree, TXP is profitable down to mid $30s dollar prices.They can change drilling plans if necessary.Ortoire drills hitting oil would triple share price from here immediately.I would hate to be in any other T&T oil stock, this is least risk. Very little net debt here, and it will most likely be rolled over again as happened recently. Lenders are very happy with that arrangement.Management know their business very well, one director buying yesterday.

[ileeman] 20/11/2018 09:18

I would add it looks like a large holder (I assume MR T) has been dumping for any old price which is fair enough he is entitled to do so but worth noting market makers will have a field day on this, very amateurish way to sell.

Let the dust settle, let oil bounce, positive update on 4 more wells by year end, still looking at over 20p imo, then with a bit of patience exploration in Q2 will hopefully see this go from a tiddler to a monster.

Bought another 75k, not showing yet, should pop up in 1 hour...fundamentals very strong so drop looks silly to me happy to mop some up in the panic.

[ileeman] 20/11/2018 09:11

Insane drop.

Oil of about 25% TXP off about 50%, it is amazing what happens when fear hits the market.

Just goes to show an uptrend in oil for a few years means nothing, everyone panics on a one month drop which will no doubt correct at some point.

[buffythebuffoon] 20/11/2018 09:08

So you sold out and then immediately felt the desperate need to turn 180 degrees and paint a black picture.

That says a lot about you.

Buffy

[mr. t] 20/11/2018 08:53

roundup, for some reason I'm struggling to read, write and edit posts at the moment, so I don't think my last one was complete.I've sold having decided in the last 3 weeks to liquidate most of my shares. Although I've taken a hit to my portfolio, I feel happier waiting on the sidelines in the current market turmoil.In TXP's case, I just don't think the numbers are panning out as good as I expected them too. Maybe it's my fault for unrealistic expectations. It could be things will improve by the next results and I'll regret my decision - I hope for current holders that's what happens.

[poombear] 20/11/2018 08:51

Nipped in for 100k 12.4p

[che7win] 20/11/2018 08:47

I will just say this, management have ruled out any placing here, the debt will not be an issue either.Reach out to them, they are very proactive.I don't own many shares here, having sold the majority between 18 and 21p, but do think TXP will outperform peers and will do well, regardless of current oil turmoil.

[captainfatcat] 20/11/2018 08:43

Market cap now £16.4M very tempted to add a few more to the pot.

Tick Tock

[sleveen] 20/11/2018 08:37

Mr.T

Agree, although I didn't go into as much detail:

"sleveen 14 Nov '18 - 08:13 - 3343 of 3398

Doesn't help presenting in CD$ rather than US$ grr.

The CD15m loan is the elephant in the room.

The cash generated by ops CD$37/bl is being used to fund the drilling and RCP campaign.

Will there be enough cash to pay this off in due course AND drill Ortoire?

At the current POO probably not without a placing IMV"

[roundup] 20/11/2018 08:09

Mr. T you have posted a fairly glum outlook for the company which you reportedly hold over 2 million shares in. I understand you were buying up to and beyond 20p. I'm wondering have you been offloading or do you still hold.

[mr. t] 19/11/2018 23:22

I'm disappointed with the last results and update, for the following reasons:1) We know from the 11 Oct update TXP did 2015 b/d in the first 9 days of October, and the 8 wells drilled in 2018 were doing 454 b/d. That means TXP averaged 1943 b/d in the last 22 days of October, and I think it fair to extrapolate the 2018 wells would have averaged less than 50 b/d each. In comparison the four wells drilled in 2017 delivered 78 b/d in in q3 2018 - newly drilled 2018 wells are producing over a third less than 2017 wells. I hope TXP can improve that and drill more productive wells in future.2) Capex in the first 9 months of the year for those 8 new wells (and 21 recompletions) cost $12.7m. Dec 17 production was 1536 b/d, so that $12.7m of capex has achieved an extra c. 400b/d. At the average $36.40 net back so far in 2018, these would earn approx $5m per year...a 2.5 year payback. That's before increased annualised G&A costs of $800k this year and the quite sizeable income tax payable. Annualised income tax is c. $8m, or about $1.6m for the extra 400b/d. So those 400b/d would earn $2.6m after tax, giving a payback of almost 5 years. It's not as bad as this, as most tax is deferred due to drilling TXP is undertaking. Still, it's not as good as I've been hoping for.3) The realized price discount to Brent and WTI keeps rising. Paul Baay did flag this earlier, but it's a bad trend. At the bottom of p.7 of the the recent MD&A, TXP describes the risks of Petrotrin restructuring given they are sole buyers of TXP's oil and and 4 of TXP's 5 core properties are leased off Petrotrin. It doesn't paint a pretty picture and there must be a fair chance TXP will continue to get a poor price for its oil, and there's not much the company can do about it.4) Opex per barrel increased from $19.26 in q2 to $22.06 in q3. What happened to cost efficiencies and economies of scale?5) Net debt increased by $1.7m in the last 3 months to $12.9m, after drilling 3 wells. 4 wells are being drilled in q4, so net debt is likely to continue to increase. Given the recent oil price drop, the large & increasing discount to Brent TXP realises, the

[gunsofmarscapone] 19/11/2018 20:42

10,000 CAD buy. Diddly squat!

[ileeman] 19/11/2018 08:47

Always good to see director buys.

[captainfatcat] 19/11/2018 07:27

RNS Director purchase

[che7win] 16/11/2018 20:35

"The most material upside in the story remains on the Ortoire block where drilling is expected to start in 2Q19.BUY rating and £0.60 target priceTouchstone continues to be one of our preferred small cap names given the very attractive risk profile of the company. Our eyes remains on the high impact Ortoire block where drilling is expected to start in 2019.Our target price of £0.60 per share has been set close to our ReNAV."

[ileeman] 16/11/2018 13:44

"Broker GMP FirstEnergy have a BUY rating and 0,60 £ target price on Touchstone - 3Q provides a buying opportunity"

[scottishfield] 16/11/2018 11:52

Had a few more this morning.

[ileeman] 16/11/2018 11:04

Oil bouncing low in? maybe maybe not be definitely getting close to it.

Great buying op.

[shanklin] 16/11/2018 07:19

No idea who GMP First Energy are but, using the link in 3386, their note can be found at

[che7win] 16/11/2018 06:56

Oil continues its strong recovery.Pairs trades in oil and gas continuing to close I guess.

[homebrewruss] 15/11/2018 17:01

New GMP First Energy broker note with 60p price target:

[fardels bear] 15/11/2018 13:09

And isn't GENL in Iraq? Hands up who didn't get burned fingers in Iraq?