Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 13/12/2024 13:44

Sleepy, Did you watch Paul Baay's reply on this in the Malcy interview?Seems like a near formality.

[sleepy] 13/12/2024 13:36

Two extracts from todays announcement:

Touchstone is in active discussions with its Trinidad-based lender, Republic Bank Limited, to fund the Acquisition upon closing

The Acquisition is subject to the fulfillment of certain conditions precedent and customary regulatory approvals, including the Company's ability to receive funding to complete the Acquisition

I don’t think above give shareholders certainty that the company will be able to fund all its 2025 plans (including the acquisition) with debt

[flyinghorse1] 13/12/2024 12:00

I do recall on previous Shell attempt to sell some thing about shallow and deep rights so hopefully TXP have that covered.

[che7win] 13/12/2024 10:18

December presentation out.And just look at slides 21, 22, 23 onwards...central block mentioned in all of them , now takes significance in a special way for ushTtps://www.touchstoneexploration.com/content/uploads/2024/12/Touchstone-CMD-presentation-December-2024.pdf

[che7win] 13/12/2024 09:56

Ashkv, All debt as per the RNS.Coho - next well is overdue to be drilled last October and is a licence commitment...so new LNG well incoming

[ashkv] 13/12/2024 09:39

Coho - when will the well to LNG be drilled? :) :) And what will it produce 500 boe/d at best in steady state :)

"Payback 2 years or less others are saying" :) --> "The Others" The esteemed and learned Buffet like equity investors that C gets guidance from :)

"No equity, this is all debt so earnings accretive." - Did TXP send you the term sheet for the deal and bank financing terms?

Signing off - good luck to the TXP longs :)

Done for the day with TXP :)

Btw TLW seems to be an interesting story - I don't own TLW / have in the past. It has dipped on news of a possible Kosmos buy / however, news of Ghana Tax arbitration imminent - and an adverse outcome could be existential for TLW equity.

Clearly news of the Kosmos approach leaked - given the run-up in TLW shares!!!

[awise355] 13/12/2024 09:37

Is there a chance we could have it taken away from us by a bigger/more cash rich rival as happened with Trinity?

[che7win] 13/12/2024 09:30

The only desperation is you Ashkv.No equity, this is all debt so earnings accretive.Coho will double income, maybe triple and we have another well commitment there I believe, which we were meant to do in October last year.Cipero block will be able to feed in here, this is a strategic fit deal.Payback 2 years or less others are saying.

[ashkv] 13/12/2024 09:27

If but / could would / fund debt - equity raise / Coho LNG [producing 450 boe/d :) :]... all up in the air!!! Rampers getting desperate!!!

As I flagged until funding sorted I am staying on the sidelines / also no word as to the 1p/2p/3p reserves - PB trying to save his CEO seat!!!

Desperation - Equity Raise incoming!!!

You have been informed - good on those who bought in the past few days...

[sleveen] 13/12/2024 09:16

Agree but if TXP receive more than $3/Mscf...

[spangle93] 13/12/2024 09:13

So if you assume $3/mscf average price received, $50/bbl NGL, and 65% ownership, the central block should still be clearing $1MM/month after opex, right?

[homebrewruss] 13/12/2024 09:09

Canaccord Genuity view

Touchstone has announced it will be buying the Central Block licence, which includes a gas processing facility, from Shell. The deal is expected to cost $23m in cash prior to closing adjustments. The acquisition is expected to have an effective date of 1st Jan 2025 and is expected to close in Q2 '25.

Funding: The transaction is expected to be funded by debt, and Touchstone are in active discussion with its Trinidad-based lender (Republic Bank) to fund the acquisition upon closing.

Assets: Shell currently holds a 65% interest in the Central block, which produces 18 mmscf/d of natural gas, and 200 bbls/d of NGLs gross. This would represent additional production of c. 2,100 boepd net to Touchstone following the closing of the deal (94% nat gas). The facility on the block has capacity to process 80 mmscf/d of gas, and is currently connected up to both the domestic market and Atlantic LNG (where materially higher pricing can be secured).

Pricing: All production from the Central Block is subject to three contracts. One accessing the domestic market, and two accessing Atlantic LNG, where gas prices can reach as high as $7.50/mscf. This means upon completion, we could see a marked improvement in average gas sales price for Touchstone thanks to production coming from the Central Block, and can see potential for Coho production (which is tied into the Central Block facility) to also take advantage of these contracts.

Mature production
The wells producing in the Central block have been doing so for decades now, and as such, have reached a plateau in production, meaning decline curves here should be less of a focus compared to Touchstone's Ortoire Block production. Infill opportunities The Central Block currently has four producing wells. Touchstone sees the potential for future infill drilling on the licence, as well as facility optimisation possibilities that could boost production from the Block, taking advantage of the more favourable pricing levels.

Valuation, target price, and recommendation
At this time, we make no changes to our model, as more visibility is needed, noting Touchstone's requirement to secure funding for this deal and the transaction still having the requisite regulatory approval. However, we do highlight the material upside potential of this deal, from a production and pricing standpoint, alongside the obvious synergies presented for existing Touchstone assets. Our target price of 60p presents a significant upside offering of c. 175% to yesterday's close.

[sirmark] 13/12/2024 09:02

Connacord note out :) 60p target

[kaos3] 13/12/2024 09:02

ok - to put it anotherwords - why do the profit warning and then presentation and then BG?

why not wait 4 days and then do the presentation on it all

WHY?

also - why the need to announce BG? no one was forcing it today- just wait for the bank negotiations to close and then announce. BG does not care probably.

makes no sense to me

what was their logic to act as they did?

[sirmark] 13/12/2024 08:58

This is via debt which is excellent for shareholders and not the 25% dilution that the TRIN deal bid.Love this deal and the share price on its knees is an amazing opportunity for newbies to come on board as everyone else is underwater so not much selling on the way back up to 40/50p

[captainfatcat] 13/12/2024 08:55

I don't know what to make of it to be honest. It's something we have speculated over for a few years. I would have hoped the deal might have been more creative in how it was structured to reduce upfront cost. I would hope abandonment cost to TXP will be ring fenced so not txps problem but there are a lot of unknowns which is never good for investors nerves.

[sirmark] 13/12/2024 08:49

Too quick for me .... Ticked up again ? 1v5 so a few to clear at 25p but I doubt they'll all hang about to get filled and will step said before they're taken out.

[sirmark] 13/12/2024 08:47

Just ticked up AGAIN now 3 v 1 Looks like a nice steady bounce in play.

[kaos3] 13/12/2024 08:45

che7 - i am not disputing the BG asset buy logic! I like it too.

i dispute the way they did the comm in the last week

white lies or whatever it is called

[dunderheed] 13/12/2024 08:44

K let's hope no dilution, debt @4%, abandonment covered and good staff onboard, then at this price with possible uplift to our gas price effect in future looks reasonable deal.
I'd have preferred to pay nothing of course, lol.

[che7win] 13/12/2024 08:42

The synergies and strategic fit here make this deal understandable.Market is liking it, so am I.

[kaos3] 13/12/2024 08:39

all this is a very strange business to me.....

they do not have funds for the q1 drilling plans !!!!!!
they do not have funds for the BG assets !!!!!!

a very strange corporate pattern

and now the timelines

1.huge profit warning, or reality check or whatever it is called
2.next day there is presentation as good as has never been to my taste. where the tone was - we are finished - now we focus on the drill bit - knowing very well the BG is coming next day
3. next day the "must have acquisiton" with no money is proposed

it stinks to me as hell

it is well prepared psych op imho - degrading my dignity

i was driven for a patsy by PB once more

they have driven the share price for the new investors down and then faced us with - we must have this situation OR ELSE -you objecting our situation will destroy the progress - but all will be good presentation - you will forget the rope soon

[che7win] 13/12/2024 08:23

No, it's at 23.5 to buy, moving up

[11_percent] 13/12/2024 08:18

Cant be all buys.......bid own 0.5 from a high of 23 to 22.5 ....and ask down 1.00 from a high of 24 to 23.