Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[eggchaser] 06/5/2024 08:17

Thanks HB - this sums it up for me and my investment here..ConclusionThe scale and savings means this is a win-win for TRINies and Touchies. Saving of several million dollars per year should be achievable.With oil achieving around $60 per barrel and gas achieving $15 per BOE, after Trinidadian royalties and taxes, TXP is forecast to begin generating serious levels of cash in 2024 (in a year with heavy capex) but FCF is forecast to grow in FY25 to £14.1m and doubles again to £28.9m FY26.TRIN has a forecast FY2024 additional £5.2m FCF (£5.1m reported earnings).Combined, FY25 should comfortably be above £20m FCF, with earnings potentially £25m. Assuming £22m this equates to 13.3p for each TRIN/TXP shareholder, potentially doubling to 27p in FY2026. That could be incredibly attractive (considering the TXP share price of 40p, that's a FY26 PE of just 1.5.It makes the 5% fall this week feel very strange indeed.

[holdbucket] 06/5/2024 08:09

Posted over on the LSE board just in case it's of interest.
hXXps://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/trinity-touch-stone
(sub XX for tt)

[sleveen] 05/5/2024 08:01

Q1 financials expected within 2 weeks, they should bring good financial news.

[lauders] 04/5/2024 04:08

Desperation, or seeing a good opportunity and going for it? Don't forget that it has taken over 6 months from the time TRIN were approached to where we are today. Guess we shall find out in around another 6 months, at least, how things stack up. We just need some good news from TXP on the conclusion of the bid rounds, volumes at the recent Cas drills and Coora volumes to perhaps change the downtrend that has been in place for some time here.

[spawny100] 03/5/2024 21:44

It's been a brilliant trading share I agree. But I'm unclear as to what this offer for TRIN means and what it might do for the share price from these levels. If Cascadura and Ortoire etc were as good as they were hoping then they wouldn't be trying to empire build from such a lowly share price. But then if Cascadura and Ortoire were as good as Baay has been crowing then we wouldn't be at this lowly share price right now. Logically this move smacks of desperation to me so I see no reason to buy back in here yet.

[rckillco1] 03/5/2024 21:10

Do you think the company, by doing this deal, feels confident that Casca 2 and 3 are going to be in the ball park of what ST1 is? I have been adding to a large position but i also trade when there is profit to be made. Started buying way back after Coho, have had an many as 200K and as few as 80K shares...been a great stock to trade around a core position, after all its a junior and subject to all the misgivings which come with junior oil and gas companies and what we have experienced. Cascadura is the real deal. Q4 will be interesting,

[redartbmud] 03/5/2024 16:46

Dunderheed

Wise words indeed.
The company has now been a work in progress outfit for a very long time. Always travelling but never moving forward.
Promises, timelines etc. etc. have come and gone despite bountiful optimism.

I have to be sceptical of Txp ever achieving an appropriate level of success as it stands. That is before adding another operation that has currently declining output levels. And accounting for the fact that Txp has sought additional funds (twice), just to keep afloat, and ignoring that fact that PB categorically stated that the business would be self-funding with a surplus of cash going forward.

red

[dunderheed] 03/5/2024 12:48

EC respectfully it is the experienced E&P SME'S and "generalists" (I include myself in that group, lol) that may have reservations based upon strategy, communications and efficency of operations with their relative work experience, that lead them to having these reservations?
I do agree with your point regarding success of drill bit and, let's face it, the communications at TXP have been historically awful however, regarding their respective succeses but again, E&P isn't just that. This was my very first reservation and I did post it at the time actually (!), that there is a world of difference between being a successful explorer and transitioning to producer. This can eventually be done by well trained gerbils but the learning curves and possible inefficient reservoir optimisation can be extremely costly to achieve that! To date, the optimism displayed by management, does not seen to have been matched by the delivery, IMHO.
That does not mean they will not eventually (there's that word again!) get there but, for people who work or have worked, at senior levels in the industry it can be "painful" to "witness".
Again if I were you, who claims not to have had that much E&P specific experience, I'd listen well to such people when they post, as it could potentially save you money in the longer run, not necessarily at TXP but for future investment?
I myself, well over a year ago now, started getting concerned about the possible wastage of the "wall of cash" if certain people remained at company or certain experiences had not been learned and mentioned over on Discord, when the share price was double what it was now, however was shouted down etc etc and I do wonder, if people had heeded such words, maybe they wouldn't over stretched themselves or kept on buying, because it was "so cheap". Hence a vacuum of only positive commentary is definitely not the way to go, IMHO.
I am significantly down on my investment here (but could be significantly lower had I continued to average down, instead invested elsewhere and have done significantly better luckily) but, will remain as holder, as hopefully the Casca asset is good enough to withstand a bit of my perceived inefficiency, learning curve and "waste". Could be wrong of course though!!
As ever all IMHO and absolutely best of luck to all holders! Excuse typos, all posted on phone!

[eggchaser] 03/5/2024 12:47

I echo that che7win - and I guess after following Ritson and Koot, PB still holds more credit all be it the assets and others in the team!

[che7win] 03/5/2024 10:56

Eggchaser They are throwing off 44m dollars now for a combined market cap of 120 million dollars.P/E of 3 and assets make this half price right now.I see 80p target in next 6 months if not I'll happily keep buying.I'm. Very happy shareholder here. I mean that.

[eggchaser] 03/5/2024 10:51

I get the frustration as I too am underwater with this investmentHowever I have to ask, specifically the experienced and knowledgeable posters with a negative view, why they continue to invest, given their obvious distain aimed at the CEO? Whilst moaning about it on the bulletin board is one thing - actually carrying the fight to his door directly, could yield a different outcome, or is the intention to perhaps warn other investors thinking of investing? In which case is very admirable, but have you considered the feelings and opinion of the rest of us who are invested in the hope and I will stress the word hope, that the company can turn their fortunes around given their assets?That's the thing with investment in oil and gas, a great deal based upon hours of research but in the end it ultimately falls upon the success of a drill bit... where the outcome is binary...

[buffythebuffoon] 03/5/2024 10:48

Oh well, they played it safe. He read from a script and only made a couple of mistakes. The angle was a bit dissapointing. The view of his specs was not as good as hoped. I think they were the 2023 addition which added a few years to the look.

The list of benefits for the rationale for the merger was the usual cookie cutter list. I had it on in the background so didn’t look at many of the slides. Now we’ll see how far down the road it pushes any material progress in the share price

Buffy

[awise355] 03/5/2024 10:47

I guess it will show in the financials, with the synergies he speaks of the bottom line should look rudely healthy this time next year

[awise355] 03/5/2024 10:45

That's it, all done, no questions

[n95] 03/5/2024 10:45

Market will like this merger once it digests and understands it.

[swanvesta] 03/5/2024 10:32

Starting well with a couple of moments solemn silence for the disclaimers.

[buffythebuffoon] 03/5/2024 08:31

FACT OF THE DAY

There used to be a fenestration tax. The more windows you had the more you paid, originally if you had more than ten (those with less paid two shillings instead of a window tax) then later it was reduced to seven, which is when the blocked up windows really started to be seen in numbers. The poor of course had less windows so suffered the most from lack of ventilation.

Maybe PB has a ventilation problem to his brain and the resultant dementia would explain why he can’t remember a lot of what he said. That or he is slowly being suffocated by the wall of cash he’s received over the years in salary and bonuses.

I was going to apologise for being off topic, but then I realised I really haven’t been. Nobody is now going to take much notice of what he says now; it will all be about the specs.

Look into my eyes
Can you see they're open wide?
Would I lie to you?
Would I lie to you?

Got to go, my psychologist is making a home visit today….

Buffy

[awise355] 03/5/2024 08:27

Be great to see when Cora might be tested

[kaos3] 03/5/2024 08:25

I wonder what would chat gpt say about it?

With the professional specific questions asked

[retsius] 03/5/2024 08:20

Let’s just see what PB brings to the table today.
It’s long suffering shareholders need some, (glimmer?)of hope for recovery of the share price
I remain positive with the takeover.
R.

[holdbucket] 03/5/2024 08:16

I know what you mean Buffy - wear those specs when we're >£1 but down in 'misery town' best keep it 'sane' on the facial fenestration front!

[dunderheed] 03/5/2024 08:04

I know - I gave up watching the Emperors "presentations" sometime ago - but did watch the last one (Casca interest) and really was squirming for the poor chap - he still doesn't appear to stick to his "cheat sheet" notes - meandering along then realising he's missed something "pertinent" out and stumbling back "on subject".

So what's the gist of this presentation going to be.
1. Big booming music starting with "Entry of the Gladiators".
2. Presentation starting with the message the combination is really quite obvious one - asset wise and truly could be really effective and successful.
3. Statement on the management at TRIN implying wink wink they are "weak, overpaid and not fit for purpose".
4. So let's substitute this for a slightly "better" team who are very similar and have been completely out of their depth with relatively simple onshore assets?!
5. Cue ending music with less booming "Embarrassment" by Madness?

As ever all IMHO and DYOR, partly said in jest - but partly very serious!!

[buffythebuffoon] 03/5/2024 07:28

Ah, the Emperor returns. Look out for the new specs.

Buffy

[spangle93] 03/5/2024 07:23

Ref 37229 - yes, just when you thought the price had baselined, a presentation by Mr Baay comes along